Texas Fall 2018

[Cerlin]

Euro Is laying down some snow all the way into Western parts of north Texas at 162 hours or so, this is getting exciting !

Any pictures of model runs? I don’t have the Euro.

[Haris]

EL NIÑO BABY!!!!!! LOCK IT IN

[Yukon Cornelius]

[Ntxw]

EL NIÑO BABY!!!!!! LOCK IT IN

Not just any El Nino, the coveted weak-moderate Nino! The deep cold blasts may not be like the past 2 seasons, but persistent chilly and snow/ice opportunities should be best since 2014.

[Jarodm12]

Euro Is laying down some snow all the way into Western parts of north Texas at 162 hours or so, this is getting exciting !

Any pictures of model runs? I don’t have the Euro.

Here ya go, this should work..

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/20 ... 0600z.html

[Cpv17]

Arctic front on euro

Coldest anomalies stay north and east of Texas though on the op. Pushes more towards the east-se instead of directly south down the spine of the Rockies.

[Ntxw]

About a 1044-1045mb HP on the Euro. That will probably yield the first freeze for many, if the Euro is correct a week from today.

[Cpv17]

CPC isn’t impressed.

[gboudx]

Arctic front on euro

Coldest anomalies stay north and east of Texas though on the op. Pushes more towards the east-se instead of directly south down the spine of the Rockies.

We see this all the time too. The models never handle the density of the cP airmasses correctly, and they almost always go further south than forecasted.

[bubba hotep]

CPC isn’t impressed.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

Remember, that is Days 6-10. The models continue to advertise an active wave train with decent spacing, so as one storm moves out the cold air modifies pretty quickly down here in Texas as return flow is established with the next approaching system. Remember last winter, when we did have cold air the systems were so close together that there was never any time for moisture return and we saw some some really vigorous systems pass over us dry.

[Ntxw]

Outside of the free outlets, don't forget Euro runs 4 times a day now! However access to it is limited to paid services.

Only more fuel to our insatiable appetite for all things snow and cold on models.

[Cpv17]

CPC isn’t impressed.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

Remember, that is Days 6-10. The models continue to advertise an active wave train with decent spacing, so as one storm moves out the cold air modifies pretty quickly down here in Texas as return flow is established with the next approaching system. Remember last winter, when we did have cold air the systems were so close together that there was never any time for moisture return and we saw some some really vigorous systems pass over us dry.

Yeah. I would just wait a few more runs of the models though before I would lock anything in or get excited about it. I think the CPC is doing that too because that’s a pretty conservative temp forecast. They aren’t really buying it yet so it seems to me anyway.

[spencer817]

Outside of the free outlets, don't forget Euro runs 4 times a day now! However access to it is limited to paid services.

Only more fuel to our insatiable appetite for all things snow and cold on models.

Not even to mention models like the EPS, which is running right now. Models all day, every day.

[bubba hotep]

Euro is a whole lot of Meh

Huge model flipping in the mid-range right now. Does the Euro flip back to not Meh at 12z?

This is precisely why I emphasized to pay closer attention to the Ensembles earlier posts which advertised a pseudo -NAO and Pacific blocking. We should give the OP models some time to zone in on it.

Pretty decent confidence a cold snap of some sort is on the way.

Tropical forcing with the Pacific jet shifting equatorward certainly favors a cold snap in the medium rang. Yutu is playing a role in all of this and it's convection has influenced how the models are dealing with MJO, maybe why the MJO has appeared to race P8 - 2.

Here are Nov MJO P2 surface temp anomalies:

[CaptinCrunch]

Halloween Analogy up in the Winter thread.

Off to Orlando (Disney Resorts) this weekend for our annual Software users conference. Let the games begin

[Ntxw]

CPC isn’t impressed.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

Remember, that is Days 6-10. The models continue to advertise an active wave train with decent spacing, so as one storm moves out the cold air modifies pretty quickly down here in Texas as return flow is established with the next approaching system. Remember last winter, when we did have cold air the systems were so close together that there was never any time for moisture return and we saw some some really vigorous systems pass over us dry.

Yeah. I would just wait a few more runs of the models though before I would lock anything in or get excited about it. I think the CPC is doing that too because that’s a pretty conservative temp forecast. They aren’t really buying it yet so it seems to me anyway.

It's also a low confidence forecast, also why it may be reflective of that. Score skills are not good right now and going forward, they usually aren't when seasons are changing drastically. The CPC one way or another does have better odds of seeing below normal temperatures. In November that's usually a good thing for cold weather lovers.

[bubba hotep]

18z 3K NAM has a pretty decent line of storms pushing through DFW tomorrow evening with totals range from 0.5 - 1"+

[TheProfessor]

I don't think any of yall would mind if we shifted that snowstorm on the FV3 about 200-300 miles south? Man I'd be so jealous of the folks in Kansas if that were to happen lol.

[Ntxw]

The forecast is for the PNA to go negative. I would not be surprised if subsequent runs dig a deeper trough towards the southwest.

[Brent]

The forecast is for the PNA to go negative. I would not be surprised if subsequent runs dig a deeper trough towards the southwest.

hmmm, wonder what the pattern was when DFW got 4.7 inches of snow in November 1976, a big analog this year