SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Extremeweatherguy]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
638 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

TXC201-230030-
HARRIS TX-
638 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM IN
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY LOCATED BETWEEN INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT AND
HOOKS AIRPORT. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THIS
STORM MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING IN THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMAL FLOOD PRONE SPOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH AND SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ON SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...AND BAYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF
WATER WILL OCCUR ON HIGHWAYS...STREETS...AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2988 9548 2999 9562 3011 9547 3000 9530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 180DEG 0KT 3000 9548

[Ed Mahmoud]

Rain has finally started at my house. Not hearing thunder anymore, however.


But my lawn needed the rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Radar estimates indicatee that my area saw between 1-2" of rain this afternoon, with amounts up to 2.5-3.5" just to my west.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS continues the chilly look for early next week. It is now showing the low getting down to 46F at IAH next Monday morning followed by a high struggling to get much above 70F next Monday afternoon. If that plays out, then it will certainly be one very nice late April (almost May) day!

[southerngale]

The 18z GFS continues the chilly look for early next week. It is now showing the low getting down to 46F at IAH next Monday morning followed by a high struggling to get much above 70F next Monday afternoon. If that plays out, then it will certainly be one very nice late April (almost May) day!

While 70F is a wonderful high... shorts, but no sweating. and 40's feel nice and cool at night (A/C gets a break), fronts this late just delay pool time. I'm ready to swim!




Btw, no rain over here today. We got plenty on Friday though, so it wasn't wanted. Very low rain chances each day this week. (10% - 30%)

[jasons2k]

I'm ready too Kelly! Luckily this system will be so brief it won't be enough to chill the water much at all, but it will feel nice with the low humidity

[jasons2k]

Up to 87 already here (home sick today).

[Johnny]

Was it thick outside yesterday or what?! I sat on the front porch while putting on my cleats to play baseball with my son and started breaking a sweat just doing that. I was catching grounders and pop flies four about 45 minutes and when I was through, my clothes were completely soaked. We might have a little cool snap next week but summer is just around the corner. Bring it!!

Yep, I'm homesick too Jason. Well shoot, I think I'm gonna get out of here in about 30 minutes, go home and do some more tilling and gardening.....then jump in the pool!!

[jasons2k]

Toasty one today for sure!! I hit 93F and the John Cooper School (weatherbug) was 91F.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes, it was quite a warm one out there this afternoon. IAH officially hit a high of 87F this afternoon, and Hooks airport in Tomball hit 88F.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS has lowered their forecast significantly for the later part of the weekend into early next week, and it is looking like we are in for some really nice weather...

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 76.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

^^As of 6am 4/24/08^^

[southerngale]

Toasty one today for sure!! I hit 93F and the John Cooper School (weatherbug) was 91F.

Sizzling! It was quite hot here as well, but I don't think it got that hot... upper 80's I think. I saw 89F in my car about 5pm (which may or may not be accurate because it briefly said 101F a few minutes later... lol), but I didn't check local Weatherbug temps.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We will need to watch the record lows closely with this upcoming event. If the modeling is correct, then IAH's record low of 47F next Monday morning (4/28) and 51F next Tuesday morning (4/29) could be in jeopardy.

[Ed Mahmoud]

We will need to watch the record lows closely with this upcoming event. If the modeling is correct, then IAH's record low of 47F next Monday morning (4/28) and 51F next Tuesday morning (4/29) could be in jeopardy.

I am so tired of winter.

[jasons2k]

I am too Ed, but I don't mind another shot of dry air if this is it...and it looks like we may get our wish -- this is the latest from Jeff Lindner:

Threat for severe weather will be increasing over the next 36-48 hours.

Weak cold front over NW TX this morning with strong dry line extending south of the front from Childress to E of Midland. Air mass S and E of these features is moist and unstable, but capped off. As base of central US trough moves into the Midwest southern tail of lift will glance across TX late this afternoon during max heating. Air mass is forecasted to become very unstable with dewpoints in the upper 60’s and surface heating to near 90 yielding explosive CAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg along the I-35 corridor by late afternoon. Front and dry line should be the needed surface trigger to break the cap and allow rapid deep convective development as surface based CAPE is tapped into once capping is broken. Expect rapid supercell formation along and just W of I-35 from DFW to NE Mexico early this evening…40-50kts of mid level shear and favorable low level inflow off the Gulf support a tornado threat with these isolated cells W and N of our of area this evening. Supercells will gradually congeal into one or more MCS complexes and move ESE to SE into favorable low level thickness pattern over SE TX and good Gulf inflow. Cap increases as ones moves southward…but feel intensity of incoming storm complex from C TX should at least push through our northern counties…if not areas along and N of I-10. Main threat will be wind damage with bows and LEWPS along the leading edge of the line.

Saturday:

Development Saturday will be dependant of what transpires tonight and where/if low level boundaries are left over. Expect MCS to weaken over SE TX early Saturday morning leaving behind rain cooled outflow boundaries. Once clouds break up…surface heating will cook the boundaries and led to renewed thunderstorms growth by afternoon. Air mass should wash out by late afternoon as very strong short wave dives into the plains and powerful late April cold front roars southward into TX.


Saturday night- Sunday:

Very strong late season cold front moves into TX with strong lift and deep Gulf moisture in place. Parameters will be in place for severe weather and heavy rainfall late Saturday night through about midday Sunday. Expect rapid thunderstorm development over NW TX around midnight Saturday as strong front cuts into PWS of 1.6-1.8 inches and late afternoon surface instability remains high. Storms should quickly form into a squall line or MCS and track SE into SE TX during the morning hours…even though morning timing would tend to limit intensity due to lack of heating…feel surging Gulf inflow will offset lack of surface heating. Main threat will be wind damage as line may bow out as it moves across our region. Will also likely see a couple of inches of rainfall…and while grounds are dry and will easily handle such rains…will need to watch how much falls tonight up north as grounds may be wetter in these regions resulting in greater run-off.

Front blasted off the coast midday Sunday with strong old air advection and gusty north winds. Record lows in the mid 40’s look to fall Monday and Tuesday mornings which by late April standards is very chilly. Enjoy as this very well may be the last front until October with the nasty humid conditions of this week until then.

[jasons2k]

Interesting stuff to our NW:


Shot at 2008-04-25

[JenBayles]

I wonder if it'll fizzle out as forecasted for most of SE TX? I wouldn't mind a few good rumbles of thunder tonight. Makes for good snoozing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The storms are really popping out near and south of Bryan and they are heading east/east-southeastward. It will be interesting to see if any of these powerful cells can hold on for a few more hours and reach parts of the northern Houston area...

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

..I doubt we will see anything too significant though. Houston's best bet still looks to be Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

[JenBayles]

A few small storms popped up SW of Houston headed this way too. NWS just upped us to 40% overnight. Guess it'll be a few more hours before the cap decides to hold or fold here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The radar continues to indicate the potential of 0.5-1.5" diameter hail with the storms out to our west, yet the NWS has allowed the warnings to expire. What's up with that?

update (12:48pm) - Never mind. They seem to be weakening a little now, with the only cells still of concern being in southern Austin county and northern Wharton county (0.5-1" hail indicated by radar). We need to continue to watch these cells closely though as they head toward Houston, because any flare up could put them into severe territory.