STORM2K

There are areas in east central florida (like Okeechobee county) that were not under a freeze warning that are sitting in the upper 20's. Oops. So often forecast lows are over compensated to the downside. This is a notable exception. BTW Ocala is sitting at 21! And these frost free advection freezes are more destructive than a frosty radiation freeze where dews reside near the temps. The dreaded "black freeze"...the frostless killing machine.

northjaxpro wrote:Good point NDG. The EURO was right with the mousture (snow events), but the GFS was fairly right on with temperatures.

GFS was very slow to jump on the moisture with this storm yesterday leading into this cold outbreak.

But, GFS has performed overall pretty good with the large scale pattern so far this winter. I think most people would agree with me on this.

I agree about the overall pattern the GFS has been right in its mid range forecast if not longer this winter.
Also, looking at the GFS MOS guidance yesterday afternoon after the 12z run came out it showed for Orlando to only drop to 33 F, it clearly was warm biased. That's why yesterday afternoon I was fairly confident that the 20s were not going to make it down to Orlando because the GFS MOS guidance usually if anything is a little cold biased for Orlando at times.

GFS did not factor in the snow pack to our north in its temp forecast for this morning.

For what it's worth, my area got to 47 this morning. Of course, with the typical screaming north winds we get after a frontal passage, it was a particularly chilly 47.

Road workers in Tampa were seen trying to clear black ice off the Veteran's Expressway.

In Tampa.

 https://twitter.com/WFLAmeredyth/status/953979737113800704

Curious what damage this freeze incurred on sensitive vegetation. If you have any pics, please post!

It's been a long time (2010) since I've been out to survey freeze damage but I will certainly be checking things out. things like bananas show right away while other things can take awhile. Hoping for the best, especially for the farmers.

Well both the GFS and Euro are showing the SW Atlantic ridge building in the long-range. Here is the 12Z Euro at 192 hours. Let the warm up begin!

Wow, quite the freeze last night into this morning as my locale reached 25 degrees. It was already below freezing before midnight and it didn't get above freezing till after 10:30am today. Strangely, the maintenance crew on the golf course near my house had the sprinklers running (around 9:30am, 27 degrees), coating the grass and trees with ice. It was like a little winter wonderland, except it was ice, but the crunching sound when you walked on it sounded like snow. One of the golf course employees came out about a half hour later seeing the aftermath as the ice was melting. Lesson learned I guess. I have pictures, but I'm unable to upload them to Storm2k atm. However, I will show them to y'all once I can.

gatorcane wrote:Curious what damage this freeze incurred on sensitive vegetation. If you have any pics, please post!

I’ll be getting home tonight from Houston I’ll be surveying the damage in the morning, hopefully it will not be as bad as 2010, though my neighborhood got down to 27 the subfreezing temps was only around 6 hours, back in 2010 it was a good 12 hours long in one of the nights, lost a couple of young royal palm trees then.

High cirrus clouds saved the I-4 corridor from a second freezing night.

Yeah, we had the cirrus clouds move in around 4 a.m. Temp bottomed out at 25 degrees, but has warmed to 27.6 currently here at the ponderosa.

This is the tenth freeze of this winter season to this point. So, have already surpassed the total from 2016-2017 season.

The thaw begins tomorrow everyone, and we all need it after being in the Deep Freeze since turning the calendar to 2018 with 2 major cold outbreaks in succession

Surprisingly my small mango tree barely got damaged yesterday morning. My fox tail palm tree did take a good beating so did my garden & grape sea trees. Riding around in my neighborhood this morning other mango trees had just light foliage damage, surprised I guess the number of hours subfreezing was not long enough. The usual sensitive banana trees, papayas, rubber trees...with severe foliage damage in the area.

Thanks NDG for posting those pics. Maybe it is not as bad as it could have been.

Looks like there are hints that the SE / SW Atlantic ridge is going to get the nudge yet again. Check out what the Euro is showing heading east in the long-range...

gatorcane wrote: Looks like there are hints that the SE / SW Atlantic ridge is going to get the nudge yet again. Check out what the Euro is showing heading east in the long-range...

Fortunately that's in the long range. The GFS isn't showing that as of the 18z run this evening. I need a break from the brutal cold. I live about 30 miles North of Tampa and we bottomed out at 23.5 degrees.

Thank goodness the warm up is on. the latter third of January looks warmer than normal...hopefully we can bridge the gap to spring from there.

The 00Z EC brings 850mb freeze line through Central Florida in long-range at 216-240 hours

I wouldn't worry about long range individual model runs unless and until the CPC bites and starts depicting below normal temps. As of now they aren't. And right now it is wonderfully warm and sunny out...much deserved.

It's tough to bet against persistence this winter which has favored cold blasts. I'd be surprised if Feb doesn't offer something for the cold fans.

Maybe for you guys. If I had to bet, I'd say that South Florida "winter" is now over. The extended forecast looks to take us out of our most preferred window for major cold snaps. We might get the odd chilly morning in February and March, but I'll go ahead and bet against anything more prolonged. I think the very subtle shift from winter to spring down here is under way.