STORM2K

March is still prime time for big noreasters in the mid atlantic and northeast and those are very efficient at slamming cold air south so we are still fair game for meaningful cool shots. I recall an april 15 tax day that was sunny and about 65...felt like a typical mid winter day so even april is not exempt from cool invasions. Hopefully we can cash in on some mild days and cool nights before we enter the sauna zone for the duration.

northjaxpro wrote:Chaser1, yes I can definitely confirm what you and mlfreeman have been discussing above. The March 1993 Superstorm was the extreme case obviously here and across the entire region with that record breaking cold in that historic storm's aftermath. 27 degrees was the coldest temp I ever seen measured here in Jax so late in the season.

But, yes, there have been frequent cold spells with temps in the 30s as shown above in March in recent years in the Jax metro area and across North Florida. I know the NWS office at Jax International Airport has recorded a light freeze in early April. There have been spots in interior North Florida and Big Bend that have recorded temps at or below 32 degrees as late as the first week in April.

This is why I do not start planting the spring garden until the first week of April at the very earliest. I know better to not turn my back on Old Man Winter in our neck of the woods for sure. As I mentioned on this thread and on the Deep South Winter thread, I would take the odds of seeing a late season cold snap to occur than not without much hesitation.

Speaking of a late season cold snap, this morning's 6Z GFS long range guidance is looking intriguing. As I stated last night, it is still long range and I am only referencing one run and changes will come with later runs. However, signs are pointing toward a significant change in the pattern with a potential cool spell by the second week of March for the Eastern CONUS.

Yep, and the 12Z this a.m looking even MORE intriguing! I don't know NDG, but i'd perhaps just hold off on any planting until after March 10.... just sayin' . If present long range models verify, then we could see a real significant cold air advection event well into Central (and potentially S. Central) Florida right around March 2-March 6. I question whether a hard freeze would actually impact our area here in Orlando, but 30's appear plausible along with some hefty wind chill impact me thinks. More odd would be our having adjusted to the very warm days again and then possibly seeing day time highs stuck in the 60's for 2-4 days yet again. Bring the roller-coaster ON!

The reason why I think we are done with freezing temps here in our area is because the PNA is still forecasted to stay negative. Yes, a cool down for night time lows for early March is still in tap but nothing drastic, IMO. The higher sun angle will make it feel nice during the day.

we're past time for freezes down the peninsula. the latest freeze on record @KTPA is March 5. About the only place in central florida capable of a late freeze is the interior nature coast...if the stars align...which doesn't appear to be happening yet. So in that regard we're done. But substantial spring cooldowns are possible deep into spring and I'm hopeful (and optimistic) that one of consequence is on the way.

Finally a cool down next weekend. As per the Miami Discussion:
By the end of the week, a stronger cold front approaches the area.
Again, the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS are in pretty good agreement with
this. The front is progged to move through the entire County Warning Area by
Saturday morning. Both models are indicating this should be a dry
passage. But, it does look to bring somewhat cooler temperatures
for next weekend, with the highs in the 70s for most of the County Warning Area.
The dew points look to be the most significant change, with the
current forecast calling for them to drop into the 40s and 50s by
Saturday morning.

All three major forecast models - GFS, EURO and GEM - showing noticable cooldowns beginning next Friday into Saturday. GFS and GEM were first to sniff it out with the EURO finally caving.

I'm ready.

The mercury reached 86.2 at 3:40 pm. this afternoon here at my weather station, the warmest day of this approach to the start of meteorological spring. Crazy warmth out there. It almost felt like a day in May rather than late February.

The azaleas are at full bloom now here and everything has greened up nicely this month due to such a long period of extended warmth. I was chomping at the bit and even tempted today to get out there and start planting, but I came to my senses as I know better to entertain that thought just yet lol...

Checking the long range guidance out 10-12 days or so from now, I feel very good my hunch the past two weeks of posting on here that we would see a pattern change in the first half of March will come to fruition.

Teleconnection indices are looking to be as -AO, - PNA and - NAO. The - PNA will likely help keep the coldest air just to the north and east of the peninsula. However, the -NAO will definitely cool us off over these next 10-12 days, especially North Florida.

The first cool period will come March 3-5. We should see temps drop off to more seasonable averages here across the area. The more substantial cool down looks to come March 9-11, as 500 mb heights look to fall considerably as upper level troughing is expected during this period across the Eastern CONUS. Temps may fall well into the 30s over interior North Florida on the mornings of 3/9 and 3/10 on GFS projections at this time. This obviously could change. However, the risks are still quite concerning for potential of a freeze here next 10-12 days, which is why I can not start planting around here in Northeast Florida just yet.

We will see possibly a few more changes with the models, but overall, this anomalous warmth we have enjoyed all throughout February will come to an end for a little while as we get into next week and into the first full week of March.


EDIT: The record high for today's date at the NWS Jax office is 88 degrees. The high today was 85 there. So, no record tied or broken today. May have another chance tomorrow to flirt with record high with.mid-80s forecast again.

I'm ready for that cool down of lows in the 50s and highs in the low to mid 70s, my A/C needs a break it was way too early for it to be working so hard but at least the dewpoints have been manageable.

Normal March temps here in the Tampa bay area are mid and upper 70's for highs and mid to upper 50's for lows....a stunning set up under a strengthening sun angle. the thought of actually getting to enjoy that sounds great. yesterday's 8-14 day even tilted slightly below so a big change is on the way and I expect that March will ultimately turn out cooler than Feb and it may be by a significant margin.

A new record high temperature was established at the NWS Jax office for yesterday's date. They measured 86 degrees.

Yes, the February month long warm spell will finally come to an end late this week into this weekend as we cool down to at least average temps . I am looking forward to the cool down as it is getting a bit too warm for me right now. March will bring cooler temps for the region with the teleconnection set up I referred to in my earlier post above on this page.

A more significant cool spell is being shown to infiltrate the Eastern CONUS as we get into the March 10-14 period from our reliable guidance models.

Well, here we are - down here in Miami, it's been nothing but warm, warm, warm since the last bit of January.

Even if the upcoming front(s) don't bring much more to us than a dewpoint shift, that will still feel pretty nice. It looks like lows of lower 60s over the weekend, which seems reasonable. I'd love for the mornings to get into the 50s, but I doubt that is going to be likely unless you're deep in the interior.

Seabreeze convection currently popping in the SE metro areas.

mid 70's with lows of around 60 are in the forecast for Miami... that's a significant change. This is going to be a refreshing change from top to bottom after the crazy heat of February.

Beginning this Friday, enjoy the upcoming 2 weeks of cooler weather folks! It may be our last until at least October. I think most of Florida will experience at least a few nights where temps end up dipping into the 50's (obviously colder for areas in N. Florida). Looks like the 2nd surge of cooler air around the middle to end of next week might be a few degrees cooler yet.

All time warmest Feb in Tampa by a mile (nearly 3 degrees). every day was above average, nine record highs including the all time high (89) and the warmest min (73). exceptional. extraordinary. Outlier. On to March...which looks to deliver temps early on that were not experienced at all in Feb.

Measured 44.2 degrees as the morning low temperature this morning. Well, considering how anomalously warm the entire month of February ended up being, this cool weather change is very refreshing. We are for this weekend, with temperatures that is, at least back near to where we should normally be here for early March. Temps could drop into the upper 30s interior areas of Northeast Florida tomorrow morning.

It will be a progressive pattern these next couple of weeks. The next cool down looks to arrive Thursday. Temps may drop down well into the 30s across interior North Florida by this upcoming Friday morning (March 9), and I would not even rule out a possible light freeze as well. I will monitor that closely next week.

Feels great outside this morning, love this time of the year of cool nights but thanks to the higher sun angle it warms up very comfortable into the 60s & 70s during the day.
I spent the week in Buffalo NY, was there Thursday night during the snow storm where 12"-18" snow fell in that area. It was nice. The GFS messed up big time with that storm it was not until Wednesday morning's 12z run that it came on board with the Euro and CMC, prior to that run it was showing a mix of rain and snow on Friday with no real accumulations taking the TV Mets in that area that go only by that model by surprise.

Hey NDG. Yeah the GFS also was a little bit too aggressive with the intensity of the nor'easter. I mentioned that in the thread about the nor'easter which I created.

The mid 60's highs expected here by late week would be about 10 degrees lower than the "coldest" February day.

CPC daily update calls for above normal precip for the next 2 weeks? I find that hard to comprehend with recent pattern.
But bring it on, been way to dry with this fricken pollen off the charts.

It got down to 42.4 here last night according to my logs.


Humidity was insanely low yesterday...19% according to the station (and my time+temp+humidity clock on the porch said 12% at one point).

While the temperatures are nice, I eagerly await the return of easterly winds (there's a neighborhood being built literally right to the west of me, so these westerly winds blow any clouds of dirt they kick up my way).