Texas Spring-2015

[Brent]

Reporter in Van, Texas w/ CBS-TV affiliate KYTX says "not a single standing tree" at his location. Several houses "completely gone."

Seen reports on twitter of "dozens" of injuries.

[ravyrn]

Another Tornado Warning.... this one is from squall line near Buffalo, TX.

TORNADO WARNING
TXC001-161-110745-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0069.150511T0708Z-150511T0745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
208 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN FREESTONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 AM CDT

* AT 207 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TEAGUE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PALESTINE AROUND 245 AM CDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 181 AND 190.

[ravyrn]

Van Zandt County Public Safety Live Audio Stream: http://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/17703/web

[ravyrn]

Listening to their Public Safety stream there's a few high-water rescues they can't reach due to flooding/trees downed in Van Zandt county. Most of the high-water rescues seem to be west of Ben Wheeler.

EDIT: A guy is stuck on his carhood on CR 4401 or 4405. They seem to be getting intersections and CRs #s mixed up and most road of the roads are impassable

[ravyrn]

From Twitter @travinskid: One of the first glimpses at the extensive damage in Van.

[ravyrn]

@NWSFortWorth: Corsicana rainfall is up to 9.83" since about 8:30pm. Major flash flooding in progess in #Navarro and #Henderson cos. #txwx #ctxwx

[weatherdude1108]

This would be good for the Colorado River watershed if the WPC forecast comes true.

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
544 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 11/1200 UTC THRU MAY 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1

06Z UPDATE...

FINAL DAY 1 QPF INCREASED AMOUNTS ACRS SRN LA AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF E TX WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW PATRN LIKELY TO SUPPORT
CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION THRU AT LEAST MRNG HRS AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BOWING SEWD FROM ERN TX/NW LA. ALSO INCREASED
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY THRU PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY GIVEN
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OF .75 TO 1 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS THERE EARLY ON
MON BEFORE GRADUAL VEERING AND DRYING OF 85H FLOW AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY/LOWER GT
LAKES...

VERY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE WEDGE SUPPORTING NEAR TERM HEAVY RAIN
THREAT OVER NE TX INTO AR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD MRNG AS
STGR UPR JET COUPLET BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM BETTER
INFLOW/LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY/SRN GT LAKES THOUGH IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE. MODEST HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF WEAKENING NCNTL U.S. UPR TROF ALONG WITH DECENT
PLUME OF 1.5 INCH PWS AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
DECENT CNTVN ALONG THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT FIRST HALF OF THE PD AS
IT MAKES ITS WAY ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
INDICATED A GENL AXIS OF.50 TO 1 INCH RAINS FROM NE AR INTO LOWER
MI IN LINE WITH BLEND OF CONTINUITY AN IN HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED
ENSEMBLE MEAN.

WHILE A BRIEF RESPITE MAY OCCUR THIS MRNG...THE HEAVY TO PSBL
EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD S/SCNTL TX LATER THIS
AFTN AND MON NIGHT AS COLD FRONT STALLS ACRS THE AREA AND
INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.75 AND
2.00+ INCHES SHOULD PRIME REGION FOR HEAVY NOCTURNAL STORM
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TX HILL
COUNTRY. HAVE INDICATED A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCH PLUS
RAINS ACRS THIS AREA GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MSTR/THERMAL PROFILES
THOUGH COULD SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS HERE WELL IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=qpfpfd

[Annie Oakley]

10 people unaccounted for after possible tornado in Van

http://www.wfaa.com/story/weather/2015/ ... /27107861/

[Texas Snowman]

KXAS reports 26 injuries in Van, a few of those critical. Dozens of homes are said to be "gone." And search-and-rescue heading out again with 10 people unaccounted for.

[Annie Oakley]

Van Zandt County Fire Marshal/Emergency Management Facebook Page:

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Van-Zand ... 2645216803

[Texas Snowman]

One flood related fatality near Corsicana per Twitter report

[Texas Snowman]

Tornado damage in Van (to my untrained eye) looks like EF-3 to perhaps EF-4. Emergency Mgt. says 30% of town was damaged by tornado.

[Annie Oakley]

City of Van Fire Department Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/pages/City-of- ... 4198014730

[Ntxw]

Tornado damage in Van (to my untrained eye) looks like EF-3 to perhaps EF-4. Emergency Mgt. says 30% of town was damaged by tornado.

It's at least EF3. Total destruction like that is typically EF3. EF4 and EF5 will depend on (if there are buildings swept) construction condition of the structures which is certainly possible.

More rain this week. Many areas of North Texas have seen 5-12+ inches of rain. Ensembles and CFSv2 shows more this week and then a repeat pattern again the second half of the month for all of Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

89,000-acre Lake Texoma is now rising RAPIDLY as local runoff (up to 11 inches of rain on the Oklahoma side in the last four days) and floodwaters from the Red River basin (NW Texas and SW Oklahoma) and the Washita River basin (central Oklahoma) roll in.

The current lake level now sits at 624.48 feet above sea level, a four-foot rise in 23-hours.

FYI, the spillway elevation is 640-feet, a level that has only been breached three times (1957, 1990 and 2007) since the lake was impounded in 1944.

[Annie Oakley]

Texas Snowman-thanks for all the updates and providing much information.
It's going to be a long week.....

[Ntxw]

89,000-acre Lake Texoma is now rising RAPIDLY as local runoff (up to 11 inches of rain on the Oklahoma side in the last four days) and floodwaters from the Red River basin (NW Texas and SW Oklahoma) and the Washita River basin (central Oklahoma) roll in.

The current lake level now sits at 624.48 feet above sea level, a four-foot rise in 23-hours.

FYI, the spillway elevation is 640-feet, a level that has only been breached three times (1957, 1990 and 2007) since the lake was impounded in 1944.

I bet 2015 will make a run at breaching the spillway. PWATS and rain totals expected will remain 2 standard deviations above normal. Not only are we seeing high rainfall totals but the areas of 2-5 inches alone is very large across Texas and Oklahoma. This pattern has persisted since late February and will continue. When the EPAC season cranks up we can expect more this summer.

You know it's pretty good when thunderstorms beat out a slow moving tropical storm (ANA) in rainfall totals

[Annie Oakley]

Lake Texoma FULL according to this:

http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reserv ... ual/texoma

[Texas Snowman]

FYI, here's the official Corps of Engineers lake page:

http://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil/DENI.lakepage.html

Texoma is now more than 28% into its flood pool storage. And it hit normal (616.29) not much more than a week ago.

I've lived here 30+ years and I don't ever recall a four foot rise in 24-hours.

And this is an 89,000-acre reservoir we're talking about.

Wow, has the drought ended!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Texas Snowman-thanks for all the updates and providing much information.
It's going to be a long week.....

You're welcome. What can I say, I'm a weather geek?

And yes, more rain and severe weather on the way it appears.