STORM2K

This was put out by the Weather Channel, 7 days ago. Grain of salt, given it's the WC, but maybe July will feel more like a normal late May/early June (?).

Tx weather will be utter hell (sorry) but it’s gonna suck . At least for the next 2-3 weeks . Late summer , maybe better . That’s it .

Ugh. I will be spending some time at the neighborhood pool next week...

Going to San Diego next Saturday for 10 days, so at least I will get a respite there. Unfortunately, we only heard about SD's "June Gloom" until after we booked. So, it will be cloudy a lot. But, nice and chilly!

Haris wrote:Tx weather will be utter hell (sorry) but it’s gonna suck . At least for the next 2-3 weeks . Late summer , maybe better . That’s it .

Yeah, it's gunna suck, but that makes it a good time to wash the car/truck/SUV. Do it in the morning though. It won't need a washing for a while. Maybe a dusting.

The last run, DFW was in the hole with the rest of us. It's filled in this run. Maybe it'll fill in further the next run. Trying to lighten the mood. Hard to do when the models aren't in your favor.

Two of those days have the 2011 record. We all remember 2011. 2008 the other one, which was no picnic either.

We're thinking of going to the SA Zoo on Friday or Saturday. Lovely.

The GFS goes kind of "bonkers."

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
235 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
The weather is mostly quiet across South-Central Texas at the present
hour. Temperatures are in the middle 80s to middle 90s with several
more hours of heating still in store for today. Skies are partly
cloudy with some afternoon cumulus with only a few showers so far in
the extreme southeastern CWA. Any additional shower or storm activity
this afternoon should remain confined there. Most or if not all
remaining activity should be over by 00z and will not mention any
precip in the forecast for the evening hours. Any activity in West
Texas should also remain out of the CWA and will not mention anything
in our western counties. Evening shift will monitor and update as
necessary. There could be some more patchy fog for the southeast
counties by morning, but not expecting it to reach as far north as
previous nights.

For tomorrow, isolated shower activity will be even less than today
as the atmosphere continues to dry out as a ridge begins to build
east. Highs will top out in the lower 90s to upper 90s or about 2-3
degrees higher than today. Lows tonight and Friday night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The long-term forecast is expected to remain rain free across South-
Central Texas as high pressure continues to build into the area from
the west. This same high will ensure that the area of disturbed
weather and potential Alberto will remain over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and away from the western Gulf. Highs through
Wednesday look to be in the upper 90s to 102 with the 100 degree
values in the western and southwestern CWA. The GFS then goes kind of
bonkers with temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with its raw model
output Thursday showing highs in the 100-109 range across much of
the CWA while the ECMWF still shows persistent temperatures in the
upper 90s to 102 range. In addition, low level flow is from the
south/southeast which also does not fit the normal conceptual model
for a record breaking heat wave. We normally would need a down-
sloping W/SW wind to promote compressional warming. For the official
forecast will show highs Wednesday and Thursday remaining in that
upper 90s to 102 range with lows throughout the long-term forecast in
the 70s for much of the region. Heat index values will remain below
105 over the next 7 days with afternoon dewpoints remaining below 70
degrees.

Just watched the 10 day on NBC 5 and holy moly is it ugly!!!! 100-102 everyday the last five days. I am moving to Canada.

FW discussion mentions one-ought-eight... out west of the metro and toward the end of the forecast period, according to GFS and Euro.

yowza. Could be a brutal June folks. May will end up top-3 warmest according to KRLD weather guy.

gpsnowman wrote:Just watched the 10 day on NBC 5 and holy moly is it ugly!!!! 100-102 everyday the last five days. I am moving to Canada.

And to think its only May....

Saturday June 2nd at DFW

GFS ensemble(!) 107
GFS 111
Euro 109
EPS 103

Ridge of death cometh. DFW, KAUS, and maybe HGX hitting 100 early this year. I would not be surprised if 100-105F is seen. MJO movement through the MC supports this. NGULF system will only stretch it out longer once it passes leaving subsidence.

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Beginning tomorrow the NWS is forecasting 95F and up. 97ish for a good stretch all of next week. Could inch out 100 in there, especially west of I-35. May is guaranteed a top 10 warmest.

While being this hot in May is not unseen, this is more typical of mid and late June.

I got a weather notification yesterday from one of locals Mets that stated a July pattern would be setting up and any relief looks slight at best. the dreaded time of the year looks to be here.

Basically for awhile. The best news right now I can give, silver lining, is that the MJO is moving along with tropical forcing. If you extrapolate the distance the next westerly wind burst over the international dateline is around Mid and late June. ID forcing tends to bring more Nino-like patterns over the US thus we might get chances of rains at that time. But that is a long, long way from now.

Ntxw wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Beginning tomorrow the NWS is forecasting 95F and up. 97ish for a good stretch all of next week. Could inch out 100 in there, especially west of I-35. May is guaranteed a top 10 warmest.

While being this hot in May is not unseen, this is more typical of mid and late June.

I got a weather notification yesterday from one of locals Mets that stated a July pattern would be setting up and any relief looks slight at best. the dreaded time of the year looks to be here.

Basically for awhile. The best news right now I can give, silver lining, is that the MJO is moving along with tropical forcing. If you extrapolate the distance the next westerly wind burst over the international dateline is around Mid and late June. ID forcing tends to bring more Nino-like patterns over the US thus we might get chances of rains at that time. But that is a long, long way from now.

Yep I'm going into weather depression. It really is too early for this nonsense! We can only hope that this pattern doesn't last all summer.

Brent wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:Just watched the 10 day on NBC 5 and holy moly is it ugly!!!! 100-102 everyday the last five days. I am moving to Canada.

And to think its only May....

Saturday June 2nd at DFW

GFS ensemble(!) 107
GFS 111
Euro 109
EPS 103

We always discuss 1983 in the winter thread and this summer has it's shades also. 1980 comes to mind. I didn't mention 2011 because June 1980 had some, if not the hottest temperatures ever in DFW. A couple of 113's if I am not mistaken. Disgusting. Who could like that type of heat?

gpsnowman wrote:

Brent wrote:

gpsnowman wrote:Just watched the 10 day on NBC 5 and holy moly is it ugly!!!! 100-102 everyday the last five days. I am moving to Canada.

And to think its only May....

Saturday June 2nd at DFW

GFS ensemble(!) 107
GFS 111
Euro 109
EPS 103

We always discuss 1983 in the winter thread and this summer has it's shades also. 1980 comes to mind. I didn't mention 2011 because June 1980 had some, if not the hottest temperatures ever in DFW. A couple of 113's if I am not mistaken. Disgusting. Who could like that type of heat?

My parents are visiting again in 2 weeks and I remember when I pushed it up to early June vs. late June(when their anniversary is) so maybe the "heat wouldn't be so terrible yet"

So much for that

Looks like I'll be going into my summer hibernation in a couple of days. Going by experience, I had a sinking feeling back to December that this year would be brutal. I hate to even think to compare this year to 2011 on a certain level but it's hard not to notice the parallels. I'll need to add up the total rainfall that fell here at the Rain Cave since Jan 1st, I'm pretty sure that we are above where we were at this point in 2011 but considering we will be getting close or reaching 100 fairly soon, I expect we will see at least 30-40 days of triple digit heat, and possibly more depending on what kind of opportunities for rain we might or might not see in July or August, which would need to come from some sort of tropical system, preferrably a wave or depression.

0z GFS has an all-time record high for Dallas on Sunday June 3rd

115 degrees 3 days 110+ and no end in sight to the 100s the entire run and zero rain

It is way too early for this...

and I wonder when I will stop even looking at the models.

Brent wrote:0z GFS has an all-time record high for Dallas on Sunday June 3rd

115 degrees 3 days 110+ and no end in sight to the 100s the entire run and zero rain

It is way too early for this...

and I wonder when I will stop even looking at the models.

I had so many March and April weekends ruined with almost freezing cold and rain, I'll take this. I guess it's sweet revenge for those of us on Team heat Miser?

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:

Brent wrote:0z GFS has an all-time record high for Dallas on Sunday June 3rd

115 degrees 3 days 110+ and no end in sight to the 100s the entire run and zero rain

It is way too early for this...

and I wonder when I will stop even looking at the models.

I had so many March and April weekends ruined with almost freezing cold and rain, I'll take this. I guess it's sweet revenge for those of us on Team heat Miser?

but Dallas never got its snow either so I don't really view the cold misers as having won either.

There is a complex of storms in Oklahoma moving south/southeast with a developing cold pool. It may spark some showers and storms for a lucky few this evening into tonight before we kick off heat wave.