Texas Fall 2018

[Ntxw]

The forecast is for the PNA to go negative. I would not be surprised if subsequent runs dig a deeper trough towards the southwest.

hmmm, wonder what the pattern was when DFW got 4.7 inches of snow in November 1976, a big analog this year

It was from split flow with a strong 500mb into NW and Central Canada. Storm undercut the ridge from the Pacific Aleutian Low into the southwest. It was likely a very marginal event with temps near freezing.

[Brent]

That storm at day 11 on the gfs is so close near blizzard in the Panhandle and OK/KS

[TheProfessor]

What a classic Panhandle Hook on the 0z GFS. I don't think there have been many Panhandle Hooks the past few years, the more easterly Great Lakes Cutters(which just make me mad) have been more prominent the past few years it seems.

[Brent]

This would be crazy even in mid winter

[TheProfessor]

Might be a shot for some Thundersnow/sleet in there. There is some CAPE in the snow/sleet gradient.

[SnowintheFalls]

At least we are starting early with some great model watching. I hope this winter at least provides for plenty of model watching moments!

[Brent]

0z Euro is even colder... upper 20s in DFW next Saturday morning. Friday is extremely cold too, struggling to get much above the lower 40s Would be close to record lows verbatim

Also has a little snow just above Wichita Falls Thursday Night with the front

[bubba hotep]

12z 3K NAM looks good for storms across DFW tonight.

[Ntxw]

0z Euro is even colder... upper 20s in DFW next Saturday morning. Friday is extremely cold too, struggling to get much above the lower 40s Would be close to record lows verbatim

Also has a little snow just above Wichita Falls Thursday Night with the front

Quite Chilly! But the storm we all have our eyes on is the one beyond the weekend front

[Ntxw]

I'm seeing a lot of -EPO. All that warmth in the Gulf of Alaska definitely paying off. To get that with a Nino is untouchable .

[Cpv17]

I don’t think the models are handling things very well right now especially the GFS.

[Jarodm12]

Yea the Fv3 totally looses the system the Canadian somewhat consistent the GFS progressive the icon a 1040+ mb high and not even below freezing hmm let's see what the euro says , I think it's safe to say no one know what will happen Wednesday and beyond other than it's going to get cold.

[Ntxw]

ECMWF bringing down 1048mb high in Montana end of the week...brrr! Gets to 1050mb in the Rockies. Considering the month this should be an impressive cold shot, perhaps some records may be seen. Snow, ice, sleet, rain or not, we are definitely not seeing the extreme warmth that was last year in the same month.



Note: The bigger the highs we see on the runs, the deeper the cold will push south with it. One spoke will easily spill down the plains with little resistance, another spoke (upper cold) will ride with the cyclogenesis in the Ohio Valley. Usually the case with two pronged cP air-masses.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro looked promising at hour 144 and then at hour 168 it loses a lot of its colder air. It looks like once the coldest anomalies reach the central plains the air starts to modify quite a bit as it pushes south. It also looks to have more of and ese movement after hour 144 as well..at least the coldest anomalies. I have a hard time believing that though with such a strong high pressure. I think the air will head more southerly than easterly because of the strength of the high in the Rockies.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro's cold front is pretty stout. 60s falls quickly to 40s behind it and Friday struggles to get above 40. Hard freeze for the I-20 corridor. Frost and freezes goes further south as well.

[srainhoutx]

Consensus is growing for the first true 'Blue Norther' of the Texas Fall Season late next work week. Carefully monitoring a potential Southern Rockies/Southern Plains Winter Storm following that first real shot of cold air as we begin the second full week of November. Stepping down...

[Cpv17]

Now this is a step in the right direction from yesterday!

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm seeing a lot of -EPO. All that warmth in the Gulf of Alaska definitely paying off. To get that with a Nino is untouchable .

https://images2.imgbox.com/16/59/wn6k4dbj_o.gif

https://images2.imgbox.com/c6/d1/raTODOLa_o.png

That is beautiful and add in an off and on -PNA and this could get good.

[Ntxw]

CPC has definitely been following the EPS (Euro ensembles) more often than not. Something to think about going forward when looking at their maps.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1058751231542337536

[Haris]

WEATHER MODELS COME 1 HOUR EARLIER STARTING TOMORROW!!!!!