Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

More juicy convection for this little baby at 11AM... and a better sat appearence, something to watch as this twave should bring numerous showers and isolated showers with gustywinds over portions of the Windwards and maybe the Leewards islands too into Wednesday night.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 111445
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

.UPDATE...PREVIOUS SHIFT HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS AT
THIS TIME. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR
ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF TO THE SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR BETWEEN
18-22Z...RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.


&&

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 111505
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1105 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER THE
ISLANDS. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BUT
MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. AFTERWARD...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER 700
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS TODAY...WITH NO
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 111445
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE THIN ON DEEP CONVECTION AT THE
MOMENT...BUT IT STILL HAS A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. AN 1114 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE 25 KT...LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
IN GENERAL...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT ALL THAT AGGRESSIVE IN
SHOWING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE MARGINALLY WARM...AND THE
DEPRESSION WILL HAVE TO ENDURE SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS.
NONETHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH DURING
THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OR SO TO ALLOW SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE
SYSTEM COULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH BY DAY 5 THAT IT BEGINS TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BY THEN. IT MUST BE STATED AGAIN
THAT IF THE DEPRESSION TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...IT WOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE INCREASING SHEAR AND COULD POSSIBLY BECOME STRONGER
THAN INDICATED HERE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT 275/11. LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...A
WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH BUT STILL LIES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 14.6N 29.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 14.7N 31.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 33.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 14.9N 35.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 15.1N 38.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 16.0N 43.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 47.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 52.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

From a correspondant of stormcarib.com
11 Aug 2009 15:16:41 -0000 - TD#2


Good morning,

TD#2 continues it's struggles with less than ideal SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) and dry air as it moves off to the west around 15 mph. Recent computer model runs are dictating a slight northerly turn 3-4 days out as a weakness is expected in the ridge above. Climatologically speaking, storms which form this high, around 15N, so far away, tend to turn northward thereby missing the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean. However, we have also witnessed recent history where these storms didn't read the "Hurricane Diaries" or study Atlantic climatology and did pretty much the unexpected.

With that in mind, it is possible for this to head due west for longer than forecast, especially if the ridge does not weaken.
More interesting is the wave which just departed the African coast much lower than TD#2 and the one behind it.

Dave

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

PRC031-061-127-139-112145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0210.090811T1838Z-090811T2145Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-SAN JUAN PR-
238 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 238 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. ALSO...IN THE LAST HOUR...U.S.G.S RIVER SENSOR
INDICATED THAT RIO PIEDRAS RIVER IN HATO REY WAS RISING RAPIDLY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...AND THIS WILL CAUSE QUICK RISES IN
RIVER AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW LYING...MAJOR
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[cycloneye]

TD 2 continues to move westward.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES
AND OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS SECOND...STRONGER AND MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ALONG 53 WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY SHARP DRYING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. MOISTURE
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL AGAIN INTERACT
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...
TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER LOCALLY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

THEREAFTER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM TPC/NHC ON THIS SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION...WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICAL WAVE
BEHIND IT...AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
INTERESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A REMINDER...IT IS AUGUST AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY A
TIME WHEN THE TROPICS BECOME MORE ACTIVE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY...AS WE
APPROACH THE MORE ACTIVE PART OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.

[Gustywind]

About TD2:
11/1745 UTC 14.4N 30.1W T1.5/2.0 02L -- Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Always straight west and a bit with a wsw component ...

[Gustywind]

TD 2 in the Atlantic
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 11, 2009 5:07 pm ET


In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure located west of the Cape Verde Islands has become Tropical Depression Two. It is located about 350 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and has maximum sustained winds near 30 miles per hour.

The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm early Wednesday, in which case it would be named Ana. It will head through the open Atlantic the next 5 days with no threat to land.
Low pressure located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This area will be monitored and some slow development could occur if shower and thunderstorm activity becomes more persistent and better organized. For now, expect some showers in the northern and central Antilles in a few days.

Another tropical wave and an associated weak low pressure is passing through the Windward Islands. No development is imminent, however showers and clouds will continue to impact the islands.Southeast of T.D. 2, an area of low pressure will emerge off the Africa coast in the next 24 hours. This system will also be monitored for possible development.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 112038
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...DEPRESSION SHOWING NO SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING YET...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.4 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES...645 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 30.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 112040
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

THE DEPRESSION IS HAVING SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPROVEMENT
TO THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SINCE THIS MORNING...AND DVORAK FINAL
T-NUMBERS ARE T1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 25 KT.

THIS FORECAST PACKAGE MAKES NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE DEPRESSION WILL BE TRAVERSING MARGINALLY WARM WATER AND BE
UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...ALTHOUGH
THE AMBIENT MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND
STABLE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS STILL INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...PEAKING NEAR 50 KT IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REACH LATITUDES WHERE IT WILL BECOME
IMPACTED BY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...AND SOME
WEAKENING IS SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 275/10 AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OCCURRING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
MOVE DUE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE
RIDGE...BUT THE BULK OF THEM LIE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST ON
DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 14.6N 30.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.7N 32.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 14.7N 34.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 14.8N 36.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 15.0N 39.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 16.0N 44.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 18.0N 49.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 54.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

The system 500 miles east of Guadeloupe:


Churning near the Eastern Caribbean...

[Gustywind]

LOOKING AT AFRICA

[Gustywind]

LOOKING AT AFRICA

The next wave to emerge Africa shows nice arguments...

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DECREASED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 120004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS NEAR 14.6N 30.4W OR
ABOUT 400 MILES/645 KM TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC BULLETIN UNDER MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 31W AND
33W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N51W 12N53W 4N54W IN
FRENCH GUIANA MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. DISSIPATING SHOWERS IN
FRENCH GUIANA TO THE SOUTH OF 5N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...
SOME DISSIPATING WITH TIME...FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N62W 14N63W
6N64W IN VENEZUELA MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N60W 17N61W
12N63W 9N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN VENEZUELA
TO THE SOUTH OF 7N.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS AROUND
THIS WAVE. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM JAMAICA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 14N27W 12N37W 13N50W TO
12N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 8N17W 9N24W 10N27W 10N30W 12N38W 13N44W 10N50W
9N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO
26N86W TO 24N89W TO 22N94W INTO THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N
TO 28N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM GUATEMALA NORTHWARD
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...AND TO THE WEST OF A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. PRECIPITATION IS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WITH
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING NEARLY IN UNISON WITH
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE...IN DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
AREA FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...IN AFTERNOON HEATING
AND A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N46W TO
25N49W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 24N60W TO 21N67W TO 19N72W ALONG THE BORDER OF HAITI AND
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE PASSES THROUGH 30N34W
TO 13N37W.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

My carib friends are you here? I don't hear you today?
Don't forget to wish Cycloneye a happy birthday until 11AM 59 minutes

You can post any infos about the weather too, we will be glad too... it's a family and it's not only Gustywind, Cycloneye, and msbee...it's everybody : expat2carib, Firebird, HUC, Bvigal, Abajan, Fego, and the others Want you to expand this TENT? Yeah baby so keep us informed !
Nice regards
Gustywind

[expat2carib]

to superman.

@Gusty. I just sent you a PM. Nothing important. Here on Dominica we only had some showers. Nothing really to report.

I'm on my way to St. Maarten/St. Martin tomorrow. So NO hurricanes. COMPRENDE!

Last time I was in Simpson Bay on St. maarten when Omar passed. No BIG problems there.... so I called my wife the day after to tell here I was OK......... Then she told me that -even that the eye went over St. Maarten hundreds of miles away- she was completely isolated and that the whole - and only road out of the village- was washed away. No electricity.... Nothing.

Ana is not going to be that evil......

[Gustywind]

:bdaysong to superman.

@Gusty. I just sent you a PM. Nothing important. Here on Dominica we only had some showers. Nothing really to report.

I'm on my way to St. Maarten/St. Martin tomorrow. So NO hurricanes. COMPRENDE!

Last time I was in Simpson Bay on St. maarten when Omar passed. No BIG problems there.... so I called my wife the day after to tell here I was OK......... Then she told me that -even that the eye went over St. Maarten hundreds of miles away- she was completely isolated and that the whole - and only road out of the village- was washed away. No electricity.... Nothing.

Ana is not going to be that evil......

Ok expat2carib tkanks no problem, pa ni problem, sa ka maché pou message là I answered you already, hope that it will ok for you. If you have any answers to ask you can, so send me PM