STORM2K

I missed out on yesterday's fireworks down south. The line just kinda skipped over most of mainland Miami-Dade and formed just off the coast. I did get a nice, surprisingly cold-ish outflow boundary rolling through from it yesterday evening, though.

47.3 degrees at sunrise this morning. Cool, crisp morning. We have seen several mornings like this spring.I like it personally, as it has been an absolute bonus in having very low electric bills. I have not had to run the heat or air conditioning due to the cooler than average pattern. I can thank the -NAO for this! There have been intervals in which temperatures have been 10-15 degrees below what they should be for mid-April.

The next potent upper level trough over the Eastern CONUS is still on schedule to arrive on Sunday across the peninsula. We will have a brief warm-up of above average temps ahead of the upper trough and cold front beginning Friday and into the weekend. We will have to watch for potential severe thunderstorms Sunday as dynamics look to be in place with strong southerly jet. Also, the trough axis becomes negatively-tilted, as depicted by the models Sunday. This nearly always spells potential trouble with the development of severe weather. There will likely be more than sufficient shear in place by the look of what I am seeing the models are indicating. Tornado development is possible Sunday.

The return of cooler and drier weather comes early next week after the passage of the aforementioned upper trough axis and subsequent cold front. More later...

What's the time frame for the potentially severe weather this weekend

StormingB81 wrote:What's the time frame for the potentially severe weather this weekend

Overall, based on the consensus of the reliable models, the best dynamics for potential severe weather will be from Sunday morning from around 06Z and continuing up through about 6:00 p.m. Sunday evening, beginning first in the Florida Panhandle region and traversing east and southeastward as the front and trough axis swings though the region. Seems like the models have the front picking up a little more speed as compared to last night's runs, especially the GFS.

The strong southwest jet at 850 mb forecast for Sunday at near 50 kt, and that will likely lead to the development of a squall line of storms to develop out ahead of the trough axis down into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday during the day. I just checked the SPC and as I anticipated, they have already placed us under a slight risk. I am anticipating this to change to an enhanced risk, especially for the Panhandle region and other portions of North Florida as time progresses going into the weekend.

April severe events are pretty unusual for peninsular Florida as we're frequently south of the dynamics this late however when the stars align we've had some whopper events. At a minimum we're in the hunt for a good squall line and if we can get discrete cells to form in advance of the squall line (which often happens over the hotter and more unstable interior of the peninsula and points eastward) we could see all modes of severe. definitely worthy of watching. The cool weather behind this system is equally impressive. it looks like the 70 degree isotherm will reside over central florida on Monday. that is quite unusual and will feel great. we're definitely in the time of the year to cheer on below normal temps.

I agree with you psyclone. We discussed earlier about the anticipated development of the pre-frontal squall line moving eastward through the peninsula from out of the GOM. We indeed could see potential scattered, intense cells develop through a very moist, unstable environment through daytime heating. Surface temps on Sunday in some of the interior peninsula areas may reach into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. This factor, if we have ample sunshine, adding more fuel onto the fire to the atmosphere, definitely could make it a rather active day! Yeah, we could see quite the potpourri of potential severe weather across the region with high winds, hail and even potential tornadoes on Sunday.

SPC now has the Florida Panhandle region and South Florida under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for Sunday. They still have slight risk at this time for the Big Bend area and the rest of North Florida and all of Central Florida.

Getting ready for an active day tomorrow across the entire peninsula as that pre-frontal squall line will advance eastward over the next 18-24 hours. My big concern is if we get ample heating to really juice the atmosphere out ahead of the squall line itself tomorrow afternoon. The potential of super cell development over the peninsula that could spawn tornadoes could take place tomorrow.

Woke to 73 F & 91% humidity on the station and condensation on some of the windows (summer time behavior) but cloudy and the clouds were probably doing 50 MPH from south-south-southwest to north-north-northeast up high.

Now it's sunny out and the radar shows the line looking stronger after passing Tallahassee.

Pre-frontal squall line has already passed through the Tallahassee area and moving eastward. Currently approaching the Suwannee River Valley region. So far, no reports of severe weather out in that region.

Looks like.around 18Z-22Z will be the time when the pre-frontal squall line activity moves through much of the peninsula. Strong southerly winds around 20-25 mph already., with gusts to 40 mph at times expected as the day progresses. Again, a big component with regards to the potential of severe weather this afternoon is just how much sun and daytime heating will further juice up an already unstable atmosphere outside of the main squall line area?

Super cell development in this type of shear environment across the peninsula concerns me today. This is what I am watching for, especially across Central and South Florida areas in which where I think more heating will have an opportunity to occur before the storms develop.

Well some of us have been downgraded to marginal and looks like the threat is well north of here

Storming, your threat will come from the potential of super cell storm development down across Central Florida. There is a decent chance scattered cells will develop down there later today out ahead of the main squall line. Temps in the upper 80s are possible down that way this afternoon. Plenty of heating to fire up storms. I would pay attention especially after 2:00 this afternoon.

EDIT: As I was posting this , just got the bulletin that the SPC has just issued a Tornado Watch for most of North Florida through this afternoon.

That line is booking it to the east, it has been very overcast in the WGV area of St. Johns pretty much all morning, hoping it takes a little instability out of the atmosphere. Well not add to it anymore than it already is I should say.

The vastness of this system is absolutely breathtaking on Satellite

indeed! It is a very impressive system for sure!. It is very dynamical, which the models have consistently shown it would be all during this past week. This is why I have been on here discussing this all this past week. I am not shocked at all to see SPC issue the Tornado Watch for the region today.

I'm near the space coast so have to see what it does trekking across the state

Pre-frontal squall line is approaching the I-75 corridor in North Florida currently. It is quite an impressive line of storms extending from just east of Valdosta, GA extending south-southwest into the GOM. The storm cells within the line itself are intensifying right now.The storm cells are moving rapidly north-northeast, while the squall line proper is moving eastward just a bit faster than initially expected.looks like that pre-frontal squall line will reach into areas east of U.S.Hwy 301 around 1:00 this afternoon. I am thinking it will reach into the Jax metro area by 1:30 this afternoon.

Just as I was about to throw in the towel on stronger storm potential downstate the line just to the west of the tampa bay area picked up in intensity and took on a bit of a bow configuration..so it does carry at least a bit of a svr risk as is noted in the SPC's latest mesoscale discussion. Nevertheless the severe risk seems fairly low compared to the near certainty of substantial beneficial rains. I think we've got a good chance to pick up at least 3/4". Let 'er dump and let the thunder roll.

I'm guessing with in the hour from control Florida north will all be under a tornado watch

StormingB81 wrote:I'm guessing with in the hour from control Florida north will all be under a tornado watch

You are correct. I was confused this morning when central Fl was taken out of the slight risk area. Seems they didn't read the upper air conditions correctly at the SPC.

There's not been a tornado report since the line was in Mississippi yesterday. there's been some wind reports. At present all of the svr warnings are north of the Savannah river.