STORM2K

NAO has been for the most part negative since the beginning of March. There was a neutral period at the start of April. However, the NAO dipped negative again by the second week of this month to current.

Check out Dr. Masters' blog in which he detailed all the locations across the Great Lakes like Chicago and the Eastern CONUS, which have experienced their coldest April averages on record to this juncture.

The NAO is forecast to move again to neutral or even slightly positive leading into May. We will see how it fares.

The latest 12Z GFS 168 hour run shows yet anoth(er potential strong upper level trough to carve itself out across the Eastern CONUS within the next week. This will continue to keep temperatures below late April averages across northern peninsula for sure cor the remaining days of this month.

The beat goes on and on and on... The upper troughing pattern icontinues to remain locked in place. as has been the case for the most part since March 1. It is possible this could continue into at least through the first week of May.

It looks very probable at this point that we may get through April without measuring the first 90 degree day. It has yet to reach 90 degrees here for 2018.

Incredible stretch of weather going on. we should be able to pop a few showers on the seabreeze this weekend on the west coast.

northjaxpro wrote:NAO has been for the most part negative since the beginning of March. There was a neutral period at the start of April. However, the NAO dipped negative again by the second week of this month to current.

Check out Dr. Masters' blog in which he detailed all the locations across the Great Lakes like Chicago and the Eastern CONUS, which have experienced their coldest April averages on record to this juncture.

The NAO is forecast to move again to neutral or even slightly positive leading into May. We will see how it fares.

Sorry to disagree but based from CPC the NAO has been mostly neutral to slight positive since late March. Perhaps the big dips into negative territory by the AO & EPO may have more to do with the very cold wx pattern across the northern US extending into parts of the south.

Edit: I had forgotten about the very active MJO passing through our part of the world this time of the year means cooler wx for the US over all.

GFS MOS guidance shows near average temps for central and southern FL for next 7 days, mid 80s for highs, 60s to 70s for lows. I am OK with that, better than in the 90s by now like other years.

I respect you NDG very much and always have on here.. I am not disputing what you are saying above. I have always specified since the start of March, we had a sharp negative dip of the NAO, at the start of March and lasted most of that month. There was another dip negative which began starting around April 10. I will stand by that reasoning.
We are hopefully seeing the trend to neutral to positive on a consistent basis as we get into May.

I am not always right, never have claimed to be the most accurate observer in this business, most times I stick my neck out on here. I have done that numerous times with some degree of good fortune lol. Just my reasoning. I come on here to share my educated opinions and analysis. Personally, the pattern overall over the past 6-8 weeks have been delightfully cooler and until recently, drier than average.


Getting good rain this morning across the Jax area due to the onshore flow. There will be a lot more rain coming the next few days.

Good rain indeed...1.86 inches down here in Mandarin this morning already. It looks like the bottom edge of whatever it was has moved north or northwest of me according to radar so it's stopped...for now.

It's just nice to finally have a year where we've had spring weather to enjoy...rather than jumping right into a light version of summer heat which is what the prior 3 spring seasons amounted to. Persistent hot and humid weather overspreads the state in May so enjoy it while it lasts.

KTPA has popped up to 89 degrees thanks to the offshore flow...which so far has stunted the seabreeze. that's 10 degrees warmer than Orlando. If we can get a sebreeze we should see some storms pop near the west coast beaches. looks like the east coast speed convergence is moving through polk, hardee and Desoto counties now so if the wind can turn onshore we should be in the game for some evening convection in west central florida (can you tell I'm itching for the rainy season...)

psyclone wrote:KTPA has popped up to 89 degrees thanks to the offshore flow...which so far has stunted the seabreeze. that's 10 degrees warmer than Orlando. If we can get a sebreeze we should see some storms pop near the west coast beaches. looks like the east coast speed convergence is moving through polk, hardee and Desoto counties now so if the wind can turn onshore we should be in the game for some evening convection in west central florida (can you tell I'm itching for the rainy season...)

Yes indeed I can surely tell!! Lol..The rainy season will finally be upon us very soon.

getting the first seabreeze induced storm of the season right now. how nice to hear the thunder rumble and get a dose of rain cooled air.

Feels and looks like a summer day out there.

Convection hasn't really started to get going down here yet, and it feels hot and steamy out. If the East coast seabreeze can get going, I bet we get some severe thunderstorms, somewhere.

Well, nothing materialized in Miami yesterday.....the forecast was kind of a bust. I guess it was just a function of too much straight-line westerly flow with no real forcing mechanism....I don't think the east coast seabreeze ever got cranking here.

Tons of rain in Boca Raton though. We were on the southern fringe of the convection complex that developed over Eastern Palm Beach County.

exceptional weather right now in the bay area, something absent from the prior 3 freakishly hot spring seasons. This year has reminded me of why spring (at least a more normal one) is my favorite season.

I am in Lee County - Lehigh Acres. My kingdom for some rain please.

At least the lingering inverted trough is likely to bring some isolated precipitation to coastal South Florida, primarily along the east coast, but unfortunately that will be insufficient to alleviate drought conditions over the interior (Everglades). After day three, drier continental air should filter into the region and reduce the extent and amount of precipitation over the region. After 9 May, I don't see many signs of meaningful rainfall for the foreseeable future. This is quite in keeping with some recent springs. Relief has tended to wait until late May or even June and July.

Humidity has become noticeable in the last couple days.

Yeah looking very rainy season-like with a line of storms that has developed along coastal SE Florida along the seabreeze. I thought the upper low feature from the Bahamas may just have been the catalyst for the rainy season to start early looking at things a few days ago and it looks like that may be the case as we look to have 30% rain chances rest of week.