Texas Fall-2015

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

***Extremely dangerous and potentially life threatening flash flood event today-Sunday!***

Flash Flood Watch is in effect

Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect

Gale Warning issued for all coastal waters

Rainfall:
Excessive rainfall event is underway and starting to move into SE TX. Widespread flooding is ongoing over central and north Texas after 5-7 inches of rainfall over C TX this morning. Corsicana, TX has recorded over 18.0 inches and Waco almost 8 inches. Austin has recorded over 6 inches. LCRA is now operating flood gates at Tom Miller Dam.

Factors now in place to produce a potentially devastating flash flood over SE TX from late this morning through noon Sunday…TAKE THIS THREAT SERIOUSLY!

Core of Patricia now over central TX and racing toward S TX and will move right over SE TX tonight and Sunday while a slow moving cold front moves into the area. Excessive rainfall will develop and train over the area with hourly rainfall rates of 3-5 inches for many hours. Will increase storm totals to widespread 9-12 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches SE of a line from Victoria to Columbus to Cleveland including much of Harris County. NW of this line rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches with isolated totals of 8-10 inches will be possible.

Rainfall of this magnitude will cause very significant flooding.

Tides:
Tides will be on the rise today and reach 4.5-5.5 ft all area tonight. This will result in coastal flooding along much of the upper TX coast. Critical areas will be Bolivar, west Galveston Is, Seabrook, Kemah, Surfside, and Clear Lake.

Tides will remain high into midday Sunday.

Winds:
Will bump winds up a little more on the coast as latest guidance is stronger with 30-45mph likely. Stronger storms will bring wind energy to the surface in strong gust with some up to 50mph possible. Offshore winds sustained at above 40mph look likely…Gale Warning criteria. Wind maximum should be between midnight and 900am Sunday as surface low passes over SE TX.

Actions:
Residents should be prepared for flash flood conditions.

Travel after 300pm this afternoon is not advised

Flooding of structures will becoming increasingly likely across the area. Be prepared to take quick actions from rising water this evening and overnight into Sunday. Flooding may result in areas that normally do not flood to flood.

24-hr Storm Totals:

[Portastorm]

I remain deeply concerned for our friends along the coastal plains into southeast Texas. Good luck y'all and be safe! This doesn't look good at all for you.

[vbhoutex]

The rains have begun moving into the Houston metro area. The coverage and intensity will gradually increase during the day and into the evening. This evening the rains may become very heavy to torrential and be sustained for hours at a time possibly leading to flash flooding and flooding from waterways overtopping their banks. Please take heed of what Jeff Lindner has posted to us and take actions as necessary. ALWAYS DO AS TOLD BY AUTHORITIES AND ALWAYS TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER HIGH WATER! To those in the Houston metro area I say please stay home when the rains have begun in earnest and stay aware and stay safe.

[vbhoutex]

I remain deeply concerned for our friends along the coastal plains into southeast Texas. Good luck y'all and be safe! This doesn't look good at all for you.

Thanks portastorm. How are things in your area? I've seen reports of closing of roads in SA area. Are you guys experiencing that in the Austin area?

[TheProfessor]

It's October 24th and here in Ohio the NWS in Wilmington have said that there's a small chance someone could see a tornado here, especially if the clouds clear a bit.

[srainhoutx]

Surface pressures along the S Texas/NE Mexico Gulf Coasts continue to fall suggesting a Coastal Low is developing as TD Patricia remnants approach S Texas.

[Portastorm]

I remain deeply concerned for our friends along the coastal plains into southeast Texas. Good luck y'all and be safe! This doesn't look good at all for you.

Thanks portastorm. How are things in your area? I've seen reports of closing of roads in SA area. Are you guys experiencing that in the Austin area?

Not too bad. Some brief low-water crossings issues and flash flooding but nothing major thankfully. Area totals range from 3-8" but that's over 8 hours.

[weatherdude1108]

I remain deeply concerned for our friends along the coastal plains into southeast Texas. Good luck y'all and be safe! This doesn't look good at all for you.

Thanks portastorm. How are things in your area? I've seen reports of closing of roads in SA area. Are you guys experiencing that in the Austin area?

Not too bad. Some brief low-water crossings issues and flash flooding but nothing major thankfully. Area totals range from 3-8" but that's over 8 hours.

Yeah, raining off and on here. 7.36 inches in the gauge at my house. Standing water in yard, but a lot soaked in since soils were dry and the rain rates have been less intense over an 8 hour period. I have family in the Houston area. Stay safe down there obviously!

[Brent]

A bit over 8 inches here...

[TexasF6]

Patricia's low is about to cross the Texas border. I am astoundingly amazed at this storm's tenacity!!! She seems to be finding energy the closer she gets to Texas and the GOM. JoeB says it will be scary bad for Houston, I share his sentiments. I have had 8in+ at the Longhorn WX Center near Jollyville. Everyone please be safe out there.

[vbhoutex]

Just issued by Jeff Lindner:

Dangerous high impact storm system will affect SE TX tonight



Galveston County has issued a voluntary evacuation of Bolivar Peninsula effective at 1100am this morning.

Coastal Flood Warning is in effect

Gale Warning is in effect

Flash Flood Watch is in effect

Rainfall:

Significant and dangerous flash flood event starting to unfold over SE TX. Radar shows numerous and widespread showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall from Matagorda Bay SW to near Brownsville lifting northward into SE TX. Rainfall rates are starting to increase over SE TX and suspect flash flood warnings will be required in the next few hours from Matagorda Bay northward toward College Station as totals begin to stack up. Models remain in decent agreement on “incredible” rainfall totals over SE TX this evening into the overnight hours especially along and SE of US 59. CRP morning sounding came in with a record PWS value for this data, so this juicy air mass is primed and ready to go. Rainfall nearing 20 inches at Corsicana, TX yesterday and this morning certainly illustrates the ability of this air mass to produce some really big totals.

Widespread rainfall of 9-12 inches will be possible along and SE of US 59 with 4-8 inches NW of US 59 by midday tomorrow. Such totals in 24 hours would be near our 1% or 100-yr rainfall frequencies for this area.

Additionally, high hourly rainfall rates of 3-5 inches will be possible.

Significant flooding will result if these totals are realized.

Tides:

Starting the upward trend toward high tide early this evening which should be the highest of the last several days. Expecting values still in the 4.5-5.5ft range along the entire upper TX coast which will likely cause minor to moderate coastal flooding especially on Bolivar.


Winds/Tornadoes:

Expecting winds to increase this afternoon and really crank up this evening offshore and along the coast with gusts of 40-45mph possible and sustained 40mph+ offshore. Could see some minor wind damage and power outages along the coast tonight.

Did have a tornado this morning along the south Beltway at Cullen Rd…and this air mass will remain capable of such weak short lived tornadoes through the duration of this event.

[NDG]

I am looking at some of the cells offshore about to start tracking inland, surprised they have not put up a tornado watch.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Corpus Christi just completed an early Special 18Z Balloon Launch. A record breaking October PW of 2.70 inches was recorded.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow on that PW value.
http://www.weather.gov/satellite#wv

Click on the 24 loop and you can see the remnants about to cross the border. You can also see some colder cloud tops building in the area of the low pressure as well. Here we go folks.

[Brent]

The 12z GFS has another multi-inch rainfall starting Thursday Night into Halloween, and then another rain event around day 11.

[gpsnowman]

Any colder temps with the rain forecasted next week?

[Brent]

:uarrow: Any colder temps with the rain forecasted next week?

Nothing colder than today... highs in the 60s, lows in the 50s. In the 70s for highs between storms.

Edit: I just dropped to 59 degrees with a strong north wind here at 2 in the afternoon...

[JDawg512]

So far 5.26 inches has fallen at my place since this event began. The fact that it's been mostly a steady slow to moderate rainfall has helped a lot with lessening the threat of flooding in the Austin area. Probably will end up at or just below 6 inches by the time it ends.

I hope everyone in the worst hit areas of the state stay safe.

[weatherdude1108]

So far 5.26 inches has fallen at my place since this event began. The fact that it's been mostly a steady slow to moderate rainfall has helped a lot with lessening the threat of flooding in the Austin area. Probably will end up at or just below 6 inches by the time it ends.

I hope everyone in the worst hit areas of the state stay safe.

I have 8.02 inches since it began, but no issues. Slow soaker for the most part.

[Brent]

Per the climate summary at DFW, this is now the 9th wettest October on record.

7.54". We are .55" behind 2009 right now which is 6th place.

Only need .66" for 5th place(1994)... and 1.91" for 2nd place(1919). Might be doable with the Fri/Sat rain. 1st place is over 14"(1981) so likely out of reach.