Texas Spring 2016

[Texas Snowman]

Temps are rising and well into the mid 80s here with dews 70+. Question for today is, at least at DFW, is how far north storms will fire. South of here definitely bears watching. Big hailers?

It's these sneaky little days like yesterday and today that I get concerned about as the years go on. The moderate and high risk days that get so much attention from press, chasers, TV mets, etc. often seem to sputter out like 4/26/16 did.

As for today, atmosphere south of I-20 looks primed. I'm afraid there will be some BIG storms this afternoon in the I-35 corridor south of Dallas and down towards Austin.

And don't forget tomorrow, cold front coming and there is already a slight risk from SPC that is currently stretching across much of central Oklahoma and on down into North Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

Photo from Twitter feed of Chance Plett. Shows the Oklahoma Mesonet site near Sulphur yesterday afternoon as tornado passed close by:

[Ntxw]

It's these sneaky little days like yesterday and today that I get concerned about as the years go on. The moderate and high risk days that get so much attention from press, chasers, TV mets, etc. often seem to sputter out like 4/26/16 did..

Yeah. The smaller days when you have just a few cells they are able to ramp without much competition all focused together. Those bigger scale outbreaks sometimes with so much upper forcing it can get messy with storms competing and bust potential sometimes can be high amongst many other things. Localized days just tend to overachieve more often. Once in awhile you will get a 74 or 2011 large scale outbreak but those are extremely rare.

Speaking of such outbreaks I would consider 2017 spring to be a candidate for such a big outbreak. Springs immediately following significant mature La Nina's produce.

[Texas Snowman]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX AND FAR SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101856Z - 102100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL
TX BY 21Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME OF THE LARGE HAIL MAY BE GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS
NEBULOUS ACROSS THE MCD REGION...RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A WEAK PERTURBATION WITHIN SWLY FLOW
ALOFT THAT IS APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS OF 1845Z.
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE NRN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALS IN
MEXICO POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. 1 MINUTE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM GOES 14 SHOWS CU HAS RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX TO THE E OF A SFC DRYLINE. STRONG
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM INTO THE 90S IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG PER RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND AN 18Z SOUNDING FROM DRT...STRENGTHENING
WINDS OF 45-50 KT GENERALLY ABOVE 6 KM SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MULTICELL/OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE BY 20-21Z AS THE CAP ERODES. THE VERY FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL FAVOR THE PRODUCTION
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER CORES.
GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT ACROSS THIS
REGION...LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT IS NON-ZERO.

..GLEASON/HART.. 05/10/2016


ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29690162 31470088 32679868 33639733 33979655 33939575
33569535 32929553 31439713 29579964 29220090 29690162

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSTulsa -- Our survey team has found tornado damage consistent with at least EF-2 southwest of Boswell. Wide damage path. At least 2 injuries. #OKwx

[Texas Snowman]

Severe thunderstorm watch in North Texas until10. From Red River counties down to Temple area.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSNorman -- Katie tornado (W of I-35) and Sulphur (E of I-35) both high end EF3. Sulphur tornado was one mile wide at times according to survey.

[Ntxw]

It looks like EF3 may be the highest surveyed damage we may get from yesterday according to OUN. However just a reminder that it is a damage scale. Meaning if there were EF4 or higher winds but nothing got hit then we would not know. Example El Reno 2013.

[ColdFusion]

Storms building to the SW of Dallas now but will they make it here?

[Texas Snowman]

EDIT: As per Ntxw's point, the Enhanced Fujita Scale is a DAMAGE scale.

If the wind reading below is accurate, then yesterday's mile wide tornado near Sulphur is similar to the El Reno tornado in 2013.

EF-5 wind speeds but only EF-3 damage produced.

-----

@karen_kosiba -- @NWSNorman DOW measured winds of at least 216mph at 17m AGL in tornado. 2km from DOW on 177 N of BuelGreen Rd. We'll post images soon #okwx

[Ntxw]

@karen_kosiba -- @NWSNorman DOW measured winds of at least 216mph at 17m AGL in tornado. 2km from DOW on 177 N of BuelGreen Rd. We'll post images soon #okwx

Yeah some of the instrument readings I would believe EF4 at least if not an instance of EF5. However due to how surveying and records work the NWS won't accept the reading and or NOAA will likely maintain EF3. The system is out of date.

[Texas Snowman]

Reminds me of some of the discussion concerning SE Texas' Hurricane Ike back in 2008.

Officially listed as a Category 2 at landfall (based on Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale).

Try telling the folks on the Bolivar Peninsula that it came ashore with a Cat 2 storm surge of six to eight feet.

[Texas Snowman]

I was actually thinking about this idea earlier in some of our discussion about today's severe weather threat in Texas.

Just in case any of us have forgotten that tornadoes - even significant ones - can occur when there is only a severe thunderstorm watch in effect, see what's happening in northwestern Kentucky this afternoon.

Multiple tornado warned storms and a well documented large tornado that was on the ground for a long period of time near Mayfield and Benton, Kentucky.

[EF-5bigj]

@karen_kosiba -- @NWSNorman DOW measured winds of at least 216mph at 17m AGL in tornado. 2km from DOW on 177 N of BuelGreen Rd. We'll post images soon #okwx

Yeah some of the instrument readings I would believe EF4 at least if not an instance of EF5. However due to how surveying and records work the NWS won't accept the reading and or NOAA will likely maintain EF3. The system is out of date.

Tim Marshell was doing a interview on TWC earlier and even he said the EF scale doesn't get real data. They got a a scientific tool into one of the tornadoes yesterday to get data though. But I think one tornado will go EF-4 at least because whipping a home clean off its foundation isn't EF-3.

[Ntxw]

Tim Marshell was doing a interview on TWC earlier and even he said the EF scale doesn't get real data. They got a a scientific tool into one of the tornadoes yesterday to get data though. But I think one tornado will go EF-4 at least because whipping a home clean off its foundation isn't EF-3.

Well it depends. A poorly constructed wood frame home, or a mobile home (which is usually the case in rural areas) can get wiped clean by EF3. It just depends on the type of structure and it's integrity. This is why you don't hear of EF5's in random rural counties but populated areas. It's not that they don't occur there, the only way previously to judge is seeing what kind of damage was done and cities have better construction codes. But now we have better instruments such as DOW which I think should be considered.

[EF-5bigj]

Also amazing video of tornado motion yesterday. Some video has shown the tornado just chewing things up.

[Brent]

So... was it hot enough for yall today? DFW officially topped out at 93... and with the humidity it at times felt near 100.

So not looking forward to summer...

[Ntxw]

Storm is moving through the center of the metroplex 70+mph winds reported in FW

[aggiecutter]

[Brent]

Pea sized hail in Wylie... third hail incident in 6 weeks.

I suppose this is to make up for the fact we had no winter.