Texas Fall 2019

[Cpv17]

I see models are doing their usual trick of losing the cold air in the middle range. Strength of the high is nowhere near as strong as some previous runs.

[weatherdude1108]

Front is blowing through the Austin metro as I type, at least it has through work. Gotten windy. Noticeable temperature drop from earlier this morning.

[lukem]

GFS has been hinting at a major rain event in Texas for November 17-20th. It dropped it yesterday but the 12z picked it back up today.

[Ralph's Weather]

The timing of the recurving typhoon this week and the kicking out of the Baja low next week coincide to both affect Texas late next week. Both are things models struggle with and each alone are potential snow signals. I am watching to see how it evolves in the models.

[Ntxw]

I see models are doing their usual trick of losing the cold air in the middle range. Strength of the high is nowhere near as strong as some previous runs.

It's still fairly potent HP. I still expect some waffling. You can still easily knock off a few degrees from output. A prime example is today. Just a couple of days ago GFS had TODAY with a low of 49F tomorrow morning and low to mid 60s for right now. It was way off, currently DFW is sitting at 46F and falling. The GFS bias has been almost laughable the past 2-3 years (even after the upgrade) there is still the same issue when cold air comes in, I've consistently sounded like a genius undercutting it but it is clockwork.

[Ntxw]

From the WPC here is the surface analysis map. HP system is currently sitting above Alaska and should be entering North America late tomorrow and/or Saturday morning.

[hamburgerman7070]

From the WPC here is the surface analysis map. HP system is currently sitting above Alaska and should be entering North America late tomorrow and/or Saturday morning.

https://i.imgur.com/cst8Y1g.gif

Ntxw, it looks like we will start to warm up for a while. Im not sure if you have seen ISOTHERM'S winter forecast, but its pretty much a blowtorch, which i find interesting because i feel like we have a few more favorable things for cold than we did last year. He believes the EPO will be positive, which i diasgree with personally, but he could be right. What do you think moving forward? Temporary break or another pattern setting up.

[dhweather]

Crazy to think we have this going on in early November - cross polar flow digging all the way down to the Gulf.

[Brent]

Crazy to think we have this going on in early November - cross polar flow digging all the way down to the Gulf.

https://i.ibb.co/FhF41FD/gfs-z500a-Norm-namer-18.png

if only we could have this pattern in a few weeks

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If Canada can gain a bit more snow coverage, would help build a stronger HP as well. I'd be satisfied with a 1048 MB high. With lower heights over SE Tx, i've seen it snow here at that strength of a HP.

[Cpv17]

GFS is slowly losing next weeks front. Surprise surprise.

[Haris]

I’m not worried about the cold losing. I think it’ll show back up.

I mainly am worried how the models are losing the precip.

[Haris]

What the global consistently forecasted vs reality.

As always, a major blender.

I wouldn’t worry at all about next weeks warming trend. These global models are nothing but failures with shallow fronts.

[starsfan65]

I’m not worried about the cold losing. I think it’ll show back up.

I mainly am worried how the models are losing the precip.

It is just a bad run.

[northjaxpro]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/hV1VftW/FF2-AC021-4-F39-44-FE-AD80-44-A7-D18956-CA.jpg [/url]

What the global consistently forecasted vs reality.

As always, a major blender.

I wouldn’t worry at all about next weeks warming trend. These global models are nothing but failures with shallow fronts.

Exactly. I have seen it happen many times how the models do not handle shallow cold arctic air.masses too well. Chances will be pretty decent the models problably will struggle with this one next week as well.

[Cpv17]

I’m not worried about the cold losing. I think it’ll show back up.

I mainly am worried how the models are losing the precip.

2.3” at my house today. Blessed.

[Brent]

I’m not worried about the cold losing. I think it’ll show back up.

I mainly am worried how the models are losing the precip.

this

its gonna be plenty cold I'm just wanting some surprise precip for once

[northjaxpro]

Crazy to think we have this going on in early November - cross polar flow digging all the way down to the Gulf.

https://i.ibb.co/FhF41FD/gfs-z500a-Norm-namer-18.png

My My!! Just imagine if we were in January right now with this pattern...

[weatherdude1108]

I’m not worried about the cold losing. I think it’ll show back up.

I mainly am worried how the models are losing the precip.

2.3” at my house today. Blessed.

Wow! I got a half inch. I have gotten a couple 0.5" events and a 1" event over the past month. Chipping away (or filling in rather) the soil cracks.

43 degrees at 10:30pm.

[Portastorm]

I'm surprised nobody from my area of the state has posted this snippet from the morning AFD out of NWS Austin San Antonio:

Monday will bring the coldest front so far this season, and like the
front from Thursday, another midday arrival will make the temperature
trend forecast challenging. A complicating factor with this system
has taken a turn for the worse in that a cut-off upper low to the
west is trending stronger and closer to TX on the heels of the front.
This increases the chance for isentropic lift well behind the front.
As temperatures are likely to hit freezing for most of the area by
Tuesday morning, a winter mix is possible Tuesday morning. Current
deterministic solutions would not suggest measurable amounts at this
time with either some flurries or light freezing rain to create
minimal impacts at least for Tuesday. However, should this pattern
continue amplifying with subsequent model runs, there could be a need
to consider some light accumulation in the future updates. The cut-
off low is forecast by the GFS/ECM to drag across TX Wednesday into
Thursday leading to more light precip chances.

Mainly a brief mix of precip is in the forecast for the metro cities
Tuesday morning and only rain is forecast for Wednesday. Pattern
amplification could change the picture for Wednesday as well, as min
temps will still be near or below freezing. A freeze warning for the
first freeze will likely be needed for most, if not all of the
counties along and south of Hwy 90. The temperatures should moderate
to well above freezing by midday Wednesday and thus end the potential
for any winter impacts going forward. A dry and continued chilly
pattern will finish out the work week.