Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[Iceresistance]

HUGE ANNOUNCEMENT!

Starting now, the CAPE Alert Index will be implemented across the Coverage area from the Dakotas to Texas & Eastward to North Carolina . . .

The CAPE alert index will only be active when there is severe weather expected . . .

No alert: >500 CAPE
Level 1 (Marginal) alert: 500-1500 CAPE
Level 2 (Slight) Alert: 1500-2500 CAPE
Level 3 (Enhanced) Alert: 2500-3000 CAPE
Level 4 (Moderate) Alert: 3000-3500 CAPE
Level 5 (High) Alert: 3500-4500 CAPE
Level 6 (Extreme) Alert: 4500+ CAPE

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Iceresistance]

Today's risk from the SPC: Marginal for Western Kansas & Nebraska

Western Kansas & Nebraska: Level 1 (Marginal) alert: 500-600 CAPE

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[ElectricStorm]

Tulsa is now under a Marginal risk for Saturday, but I'm not!

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day3otlk_0730df439851b4a197a3.gif

... Don't worry you'll still end up with more storms than me lol

[Iceresistance]

Tulsa is now under a Marginal risk for Saturday, but I'm not!

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day3otlk_0730df439851b4a197a3.gif

... Don't worry you'll still end up with more storms than me lol

Only time will tell for this one . . .

[Iceresistance]

KFOR is calling for all this weekend & all of next week to be stormy, & almost all of next week is showing severe potential!

[ElectricStorm]

Gotta watch for a sneaky setup Saturday... Probably won't be anything big but it's not going to have a huge cap like last Saturday had. Tuesday looks like the most interesting day so far for next week.

Also, most of these days will likely have to deal with morning convection/cloud cover issues

[Iceresistance]

News 9 Evening Forecast


KFOR News 4 Evening Forecast

[ElectricStorm]

Well today was an overperformance... A couple of sighail reports and even a tor report in there. Yet another example of why to take marginal risks seriously (seems like there's been quite a bit of these overperforming lower-risk days this year)

[ElectricStorm]

New Day 1 upgrades to slight risk for wind and hail, both 15 hatched


Day 2 also upgraded

[Iceresistance]

Marginal risk for Most of the Southern Plains Sunday

[Iceresistance]

I found this sounding near Tecumseh, OK on the 6z GFS at +90 hours . . .

[Iceresistance]

Slight risk in Panhandles of Texas & Oklahoma, Western Kansas & NE Colorado . . .
Separate Marginal risk in Western Minnesota, SE North Dakota & Eastern South Dakota . . .

Northern Panhandle of Texas, Panhandle Oklahoma & Western Kansas: Level 2 (Slight) Alert: 1500-2100 CAPE

Western Half of Kansas, NW Oklahoma, Panhandle Texas & parts of Colorado: Level 1 (Marginal) alert: 500-1500 CAPE

Western Minnesota, SE North Dakota, & Eastern South Dakota: Level 1 (Marginal) alert: Up to 500 CAPE

(>1000 CAPE does show in West-Central Texas, but no severe threat there . . .)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Iceresistance]

Marginal risk of Flooding in the Southern Plains Sunday . . .

[cheezyWXguy]

Slight risk in Panhandles of Texas & Oklahoma, Western Kansas & NE Colorado . . .
Separate Marginal risk in Western Minnesota, SE North Dakota & Eastern South Dakota . . .

Northern Panhandle of Texas, Panhandle Oklahoma & Western Kansas: Level 2 (Slight) Alert: 1500-2100 CAPE

Western Half of Kansas, NW Oklahoma, Panhandle Texas & parts of Colorado: Level 1 (Marginal) alert: 500-1500 CAPE

Western Minnesota, SE North Dakota, & Eastern South Dakota: Level 1 (Marginal) alert: Up to 500 CAPE

(>1000 CAPE does show in West-Central Texas, but no severe threat there . . .)

For the newbies out there, you might want to include some kind of disclaimer that this isn’t official guidance. Your naming categorization is similar to that of the spc, so that might get confusing.

[Iceresistance]

Slight risk in Panhandles of Texas & Oklahoma, Western Kansas & NE Colorado . . .
Separate Marginal risk in Western Minnesota, SE North Dakota & Eastern South Dakota . . .

Northern Panhandle of Texas, Panhandle Oklahoma & Western Kansas: Level 2 (Slight) Alert: 1500-2100 CAPE

Western Half of Kansas, NW Oklahoma, Panhandle Texas & parts of Colorado: Level 1 (Marginal) alert: 500-1500 CAPE

Western Minnesota, SE North Dakota, & Eastern South Dakota: Level 1 (Marginal) alert: Up to 500 CAPE

(>1000 CAPE does show in West-Central Texas, but no severe threat there . . .)

For the newbies out there, you might want to include some kind of disclaimer that this isn’t official guidance. Your naming categorization is similar to that of the spc, so that might get confusing.

Oh, I'll put that up from now on, I was using this for CAPE levels . . .

[ElectricStorm]

Starting to get seriously concerned about the flooding potential for this upcoming week. There likely will be some sort of severe potential on most of those days, but likely not anything more than slight risks, except possibly Tuesday in TX. Either way, flooding will likely be the major issue with this system.

Looking beyond that, models are starting to potentially hint at a more active last couple weeks of May. But if that tropical system that the GFS shows ends up developing (I'm pretty skeptical on that) then it could rob the moisture, preventing any significant events from occurring.

Personally I'm still leaning towards an active second half of May

[Iceresistance]

Starting to get seriously concerned about the flooding potential for this upcoming week. There likely will be some sort of severe potential on most of those days, but likely not anything more than slight risks, except possibly Tuesday in TX. Either way, flooding will likely be the major issue with this system.

Looking beyond that, models are starting to potentially hint at a more active last couple weeks of May. But if that tropical system that the GFS shows ends up developing (I'm pretty skeptical on that) then it could rob the moisture, preventing any significant events from occurring.

Personally I'm still leaning towards an active second half of May

There are a LOT of chances that it could cause MORE moisture or does not affect us in severe weather potential, it moves further west & causes the Dewpoints to JUMP, or further east & it does not affect the moisture very much if at all . . . There is still a long way to go for this to change . . .

Also, several soundings are showing potential tornado threat next Monday & Tuesday for Central Oklahoma . . .

And If May does not work well, then we can try June, the CFS is going crazy for June . . .

[Iceresistance]

Classic May Severe Weather look today (The risk zone)

[Iceresistance]

I've personally never seen a Moderate risk of Flooding near me that does not include a Tropical Cyclone this far out!

[Iceresistance]

Raining pretty good outside right now . . .