Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

Finally, they got this over us for once!


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

[rwfromkansas]

It's hard to get excited for alleged risks of heavy rain when they literally have all evaporated. I will get excited when it's raining. And raining more than an inch. But, I am glad at least I am not further west. I've at least had one one-inch rainfall and a few other smaller ones.

[Haris]

Got more rain than expected this morning IMBY but SE Dallas and Rockwall counties really cashed in.

Also, looks like a thin line of storms might be trying to fire along the cold front.

Storms are now firing along the cold front after it pushed past the airport lol

The tale of two DFWs continues with rainfall east of the airport running 2 to 3 times higher than areas west of the airport for April.

Count yourself lucky up there in Collin county. That’s a pretty good spot to be in lol

[Ntxw]

Got more rain than expected this morning IMBY but SE Dallas and Rockwall counties really cashed in.

Also, looks like a thin line of storms might be trying to fire along the cold front.

Storms are now firing along the cold front after it pushed past the airport lol

The tale of two DFWs continues with rainfall east of the airport running 2 to 3 times higher than areas west of the airport for April.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/V2rWCrz/CF5600-BC-78-AB-45-DF-9141-CFB641-D3-C1-E9.jpg [/url]

Count yourself lucky up there in Collin county. That’s a pretty good spot to be in lol

It's good for IMBY perspectives but in the long run you need much larger scale +wet patterns to stop the feedback. The northeast area of the state tends to be the last to fall during oncoming drought. Benefits from climo with natural higher qpf + closer to springtime upper vorticity.

[Haris]

Yea, it’s a big deal you’re beating Houston up there too. The southern half and west third is in catastrophe

[txtwister78]

CIPS guidance indicating some severe potential Saturday through Monday and perhaps again late into next week.

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SVRprob/SVRprob.php?rundt=2022041400&fhr=F048&type=ALL&map=fill

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SVRprob/SVRprob.php?rundt=2022041400&type=ALL&map=fill&fhr=F072

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SVRprob/SVRprob.php?rundt=2022041400&type=ALL&map=fill&fhr=F096

[Iceresistance]

Typhoon Malakas will have a huge influence on the weather patterns here. It's a huge typhoon, and it will amplify the Jet Stream because it's recurving to the NE & towards us.

[ElectricStorm]

Random stat: As of today it has now been exactly 10 years since my hometown has been under a high risk from SPC. That's just mind boggling, an entire decade without a high risk. Plenty of moderates, but no highs. And I don't really see that changing anytime soon.

[txtwister78]

Random stat: As of today it has now been exactly 10 years since my hometown has been under a high risk from SPC. That's just mind boggling, an entire decade without a high risk. Plenty of moderates, but no highs. And I don't really see that changing anytime soon.

Sounds like a good stat to me. Since those are pretty rare to begin with (maybe 2-3 a season on average), I'm not that surprised (even for Oklahoma). Those come with a such a high bar to meet in terms of criteria/issuance, but who can really say when the next one might be issued? That's not something folks typically can "predict" until you get within 1-2 days of any severe weather event as a result of so many dynamics/parameters that have to be met.

[Iceresistance]

Random stat: As of today it has now been exactly 10 years since my hometown has been under a high risk from SPC. That's just mind boggling, an entire decade without a high risk. Plenty of moderates, but no highs. And I don't really see that changing anytime soon.

Sounds like a good stat to me. Since those are pretty rare to begin with (maybe 2-3 a season on average), I'm not that surprised (even for Oklahoma). Those come with a such a high bar to meet in terms of criteria/issuance, but who can really say when the next one might be issued? That's not something folks typically can "predict" until you get within 1-2 days of any severe weather event as a result of so many dynamics/parameters that have to be met.

Yes, the conditions must be absolutely crazy for a high risk to occur. Since the SPC has a very high bar for a High Risk, they only issue it if all the models/soundings are consistently showing a dangerous & potentially life threatening outbreak over a particular region. We got close at least three times already from Dixie Alley this year.

[bubba hotep]

Small area of agitated CU out W / SW of DFW with a pretty good parameter space in place. Wouldn't be surprised if a cell or two tried to get going out there.

[Texas Snowman]

Not Texas, but near the spot in Arkansas where a friend of mine from Quitman moved a few months ago.

Wow, what a year for tornadoes…

—————
883
WWUS54 KLZK 160035
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
735 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

ARC049-065-075-121-135-160100-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220416T0100Z/
Randolph AR-Izard AR-Fulton AR-Lawrence AR-Sharp AR-
735 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
RANDOLPH...NORTHEASTERN IZARD...EASTERN FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL SHARP COUNTIES...

At 734 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near Hardy, or 9 miles east of Cherokee Village, moving east at 50
mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for HARDY, HIGHLAND AND WILLIFORD. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cherokee Village... Ash Flat...
Horseshoe Bend... Highland in Sharp County...
Mammoth Spring... Hardy...
Imboden... Ravenden...
Ravenden Springs... Ballard...
Annieville... Mammoth Spring State Park...
Smithville... Williford...
Agnos... Armstrong...
Heart... Kittle...
Wirth... Saddle...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take
immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 9180 3650 9161 3650 9115 3601 9121
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 283DEG 44KT 3629 9139

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN

[Iceresistance]

Tornado Emergency now in place for Jonesboro, one of our members lives in Jonesboro, I hope that he's going to be alright

[captainbarbossa19]

Tornado Emergency now in place for Jonesboro, one of our members lives in Jonesboro, I hope that he's going to be alright

I have a friend who lives near Jonesboro. He said the tornado passed less than 10 miles from his house. He had quite a bit of hail from the storm.

[fendie]

Small area of agitated CU out W / SW of DFW with a pretty good parameter space in place. Wouldn't be surprised if a cell or two tried to get going out there.

Saw these clouds from 29,000 feet yesterday.

[South Texas Storms]

Surprise surprise...ensembles are trending towards lower rainfall totals across Texas for the rest of April. Man I hate La Nina events.

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI cooled off a tiny bit but largely still very positive. The Nina was supposed to weaken (not much) but instead the atmosphere is driving full throttle Nina.

From a monthly perspective SOI has seen an aggregate negative month (30 day SOI March of 2021) a total of 1 out of 15 months. No such stretch since early 2010s.

Continues to tell us, while intermittent rainfalls will occur, they will be outlasted by dry periods. There's no arrow pointing we will leave this configuration anytime soon since the background state is largely a long term cause, perhaps mid 2023.

[Brent]

Struggling to get to 60 here. Far cry from the low mid 80s yesterday. We still haven't had a consistent warm stretch yet although one may be coming by the end of the week

Unfortunately the rain this week underperformed but we're not in as bad of shape as areas more west and south

[Iceresistance]

Struggling to get to 60 here. Far cry from the low mid 80s yesterday. We still haven't had a consistent warm stretch yet although one may be coming by the end of the week

Unfortunately the rain this week underperformed but we're not in as bad of shape as areas more west and south

A LOT of Storm chances appear very possible next week, don't give up hope for an overperformance!

[Iceresistance]

Euro is showing BIG Severe Weather Potential on D6 & D7 for Oklahoma, but it's not on the SPC yet.