Texas Fall-2015

[vbhoutex]

We are clsoing in on 1.5" at my house in W. Houston and the rains are steady and moderate to heavy. An areal flood advisory has been issued for areas to my South and that is all heading this way. This is our first round and 3" out of it would not be a surprise to me. Overnight into tomorrow morning is when the even heavier rains are expected to hit if they materialize. The last QPF I saw through tomorrow am was 13.66" and Houston metro was the bullseye.

[Tireman4]

We are clsoing in on 1.5" at my house in W. Houston and the rains are steady and moderate to heavy. An areal flood advisory has been issued for areas to my South and that is all heading this way. This is our first round and 3" out of it would not be a surprise to me. Overnight into tomorrow morning is when the even heavier rains are expected to hit if they materialize. The last QPF I saw through tomorrow am was 13.66" and Houston metro was the bullseye.

I was just about text you. My president called me about the weather...

[Brent]

18z GFS is even wetter with the next system next weekend and looks to be another slow mover... with another 4-8 inch rainfall across most of North and Central Texas... it's even hinting at an area approaching 10" again (the band around Houston is the current rainfall, the area around DFW and in E TX is the next system):

Edit: The run taken verbatim has a flood band setting up over DFW on Halloween... lingering into next Sunday morning. It has over 8" through 384 hours... about 6" of that falls next weekend.

[aggiecutter]

18z GFS is even wetter with the next system next weekend and looks to be another slow mover... with another 4-8 inch rainfall across most of North and Central Texas... it's even hinting at an area approaching 10" again (the band around Houston is the current rainfall, the area around DFW and in E TX is the next system):

Edit: The run taken verbatim has a flood band setting up over DFW on Halloween... lingering into next Sunday morning. It has over 8" through 384 hours... about 6" of that falls next weekend.

El-Nino is beginning to flex his muscles.

[gboudx]

That would suck for Halloween.

[1900hurricane]

Up to 6.28" in S College Station as of 00Z.

[HockeyTx82]

18z GFS is even wetter with the next system next weekend and looks to be another slow mover... with another 4-8 inch rainfall across most of North and Central Texas... it's even hinting at an area approaching 10" again (the band around Houston is the current rainfall, the area around DFW and in E TX is the next system):

Edit: The run taken verbatim has a flood band setting up over DFW on Halloween... lingering into next Sunday morning. It has over 8" through 384 hours... about 6" of that falls next weekend.

El-Nino is beginning to flex his muscles.

Made me think of this, it was the visual I got from your post

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8

[1900hurricane]

2.74" PW in the BRO sounding. Still awaiting CRP.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is even wetter with the next system next weekend and looks to be another slow mover... with another 4-8 inch rainfall across most of North and Central Texas... it's even hinting at an area approaching 10" again (the band around Houston is the current rainfall, the area around DFW and in E TX is the next system):

Edit: The run taken verbatim has a flood band setting up over DFW on Halloween... lingering into next Sunday morning. It has over 8" through 384 hours... about 6" of that falls next weekend.

http://oi59.tinypic.com/30lgy2p.jpg

El-Nino is beginning to flex his muscles.

That would be no bueno for tricker treaters. Very wet and chilly. Euro is a more reasonable 1-3". The models though tend to get more bold as the frame comes closer it seems. If that did pan out then the wettest year on record is on the table. 7" away from 1991.

Hope you SE Texas folks staying safe from flooding tonight.

[Brent]

18z GFS is even wetter with the next system next weekend and looks to be another slow mover... with another 4-8 inch rainfall across most of North and Central Texas... it's even hinting at an area approaching 10" again (the band around Houston is the current rainfall, the area around DFW and in E TX is the next system):

Edit: The run taken verbatim has a flood band setting up over DFW on Halloween... lingering into next Sunday morning. It has over 8" through 384 hours... about 6" of that falls next weekend.

http://oi59.tinypic.com/30lgy2p.jpg

El-Nino is beginning to flex his muscles.

That would be no bueno for tricker treaters. Very wet and chilly. Euro is a more reasonable 1-3". The models though tend to get more bold as the frame comes closer it seems. If that did pan out then the wettest year on record is on the table. 7" away from 1991.

Hope you SE Texas folks staying safe from flooding tonight.

Yeah the GFS has been pretty in line with the 1-3" up til this run so we'll just have to see how it trends.

[hfriverajr]

It would appear that the rain shield is moving rather quickly. Seems some of the energy maybe have been stolen, by the earlier line of storms moving south through the central and south Texas, with the heaviest rainfall off the coast of Brownsville. Does not look like an all night heavy rain event to me in SE Texas

P.S. Looks like this train of upper lows will continue, with one late next week, and modeling suggesting another one after that.





* Refer to NWS for official warnings and forecasts. This is strictly my opinion

[Ntxw]

Yeah the GFS has been pretty in line with the 1-3" up til this run so we'll just have to see how it trends.

It's certainly possible though. The pattern has been to keep a trough to our west and ridge over the gulf and southeast. That flow continuously brings moisture up from the east pacific, that's a very strong subtropical jet signal as we just saw.

[weatherdude1108]

18z GFS is even wetter with the next system next weekend and looks to be another slow mover... with another 4-8 inch rainfall across most of North and Central Texas... it's even hinting at an area approaching 10" again (the band around Houston is the current rainfall, the area around DFW and in E TX is the next system):

Edit: The run taken verbatim has a flood band setting up over DFW on Halloween... lingering into next Sunday morning. It has over 8" through 384 hours... about 6" of that falls next weekend.

El-Nino is beginning to flex his muscles.

Made me think of this, it was the visual I got from your post

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8

[weatherdude1108]

8.33 inches at the house with this event. I think this will be my official total, add a couple tenths maybe if it rains again (?), and 61 degrees.

The air feels so clean and crisp!

[Brent]

The air feels so clean and crisp!

I've had the windows open all day... it's a glorious feeling, and every now and then a good gust of wind comes through.

and yeah I wouldn't throw out the extreme projections of the GFS yet, just want to see more consistency in the idea. Certainly a wet Halloween appears likely, how wet is the question...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

3.52 inches at TPB weather center. It's been a steady, slow rainstorm so far. Something we can handle. Some areas are beginning to fold but it could be worse. Winds have def increased though. Much breezier now. Looks like the event may end much quicker than expected too.

[Tireman4]

Agreed..although really coming down a rapid rate in Humble...flash flood warning going of on our phones...we are fine...highest point in our subdivision...

[1900hurricane]

The back edge is actually quite near where most of the high resolution models put it right now. They also develop a wrap-around comma head filled with precipitation. It's yet to be seen if it'll verify, but we should know in an hour or two.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah, we are at a "rainout party" with my close friends Hahahaha. Only issue its in the same area as the Braeswood flood in May. But our phones and the tv have been going nuts hahaha

[Brent]

The 0z GFS is much more in line with the Euro for next weekend... generally 1-3", so we'll see how it goes over the next few days. It is still almost a week out.

Big difference is the system is progressive... slower start but quicker exit... almost all the rain falls on Halloween Saturday along the I-35 corridor(into Sunday in E TX and Houston)