Texas Spring 2022

[Brent]

Euro is showing BIG Severe Weather Potential on D6 & D7 for Oklahoma, but it's not on the SPC yet.

Tuesday was so hyped up and nothing even formed so yeah I'll believe it when I see it

[captainbarbossa19]

Surprise surprise...ensembles are trending towards lower rainfall totals across Texas for the rest of April. Man I hate La Nina events.

I hear you. I am not looking forward to possibly watering plants every day. Excessive heat is more likely this summer if rainfall does not pick up soon.

[ElectricStorm]

Euro is showing BIG Severe Weather Potential on D6 & D7 for Oklahoma, but it's not on the SPC yet.

Tuesday was so hyped up and nothing even formed so yeah I'll believe it when I see it

Which is exactly why I don't get excited for anything beyond like 2 or 3 days out, since it happens so much. If models were right there would be a big event every single week lol

[DallasAg]

Surprise surprise...ensembles are trending towards lower rainfall totals across Texas for the rest of April. Man I hate La Nina events.

I hear you. I am not looking forward to possibly watering plants every day. Excessive heat is more likely this summer if rainfall does not pick up soon.

I've pretty much decided that I'm not going to plant anything in the way of summer annuals this year. I have a nice perennial area of lantanas, coneflowers, and Turk's caps which all thrive in hot, dry weather. That'll have to do for this year. What I learned during hot dry summers in the past (1998, 2000, 2008, 2011, 2012, etc.) with annuals, even if you water the crap out of them they start looking bad once the soil temperature gets hot and stays hot. By late July or early August they're pretty much fried. I'll save the $$ for the electric bill and hope that I'm kicking myself in September because the pattern miraculously shifted and we ended up with a wet summer.

[Haris]

Supercell risk W of AUS, NW of SA today along NW flow

[captainbarbossa19]

Supercell risk W of AUS, NW of SA today along NW flow

Yep. Satellite imagery has the look of supercell development today. Looks like a good amount of shear.

[Iceresistance]

There's already Storms in Texas, one of them is going towards Austin, moving ESE (Weird direction)

[captainbarbossa19]

One thing I am noticing that is interesting is that now for the second time in less than one week, we have seen thunderstorms develop in the Edwards Plateau region. There are some hints that there may be activity once again in this region near the end of the upcoming week. If this trend continues of seeing weekly storms, we might start seeing some relief from developing drought conditions.

[Iceresistance]

Euro is showing BIG Severe Weather Potential on D6 & D7 for Oklahoma, but it's not on the SPC yet.

Tuesday was so hyped up and nothing even formed so yeah I'll believe it when I see it

Which is exactly why I don't get excited for anything beyond like 2 or 3 days out, since it happens so much. If models were right there would be a big event every single week lol

Well, guess you're right, the models are showing Capping issues right now for the Southern Plains. The only area that does not have that problem is up north, in the Central Plains & into the Midwest.

[cstrunk]

Well I sure hope something changes soon because it doesn't look like anyone except MAYBE north Texas is going to get some rain over the next week. I missed out on any rain over the weekend, even though we had 60%-80% chances.

[Iceresistance]

Next week looks really good for my area for Rainfall, the CPC has Above Normal rainfall for my area in the next 6-10 days!

[Iceresistance]

Slight Risk in place for Oklahoma tomorrow

[rwfromkansas]

A decent chance of rain...right now...early next week in north TX. After that, nothing again. I'm skeptical.

[Edwards Limestone]

A decent chance of rain...right now...early next week in north TX. After that, nothing again. I'm skeptical.

Always a week out

[bubba hotep]

Anyone buying?

[Brent]

Anyone buying?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQvA7nfXwAAyEtM?format=jpg&name=medium

Nope. Been burned too many times

[Haris]

Anyone buying?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQvA7nfXwAAyEtM?format=jpg&name=medium

Yes

[South Texas Storms]

Anyone buying?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQvA7nfXwAAyEtM?format=jpg&name=medium

As much as I want to, probably not. We're already seeing model trends today back off on the projected rainfall totals early next week.

From this afternoon's NWS EWX AFD:

The troughing pattern should be able to pull a front into
our area Monday, but this is probably in reduced confidence versus
the previous day when the pattern aloft was slightly slower and more
amplified. Thus the day 5-7 forecast is in very low confidence, and
is likely to overstate the chance of much needed rain. Still there
remains a decent chance for a near widespread swath of storms to
announce the cold front, but the weaker amplitude trend of the upper
pattern and weaker cold front has this forecaster concerned the
models may trend drier with each run and leave the population feeling
cheated. This has been a La Nina cycle trend for the medium range
models for years, and it comes at a tough time--the growing season.

[Edwards Limestone]

Anyone buying?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQvA7nfXwAAyEtM?format=jpg&name=medium

La Nina Lucy

[Iceresistance]

Anyone buying?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQvA7nfXwAAyEtM?format=jpg&name=medium

Well yes, but the SOI is ridiculously positive. I'm uncertain now, even though that the WPC has 3-4 inches from Northern Texas to Illinois & Iowa in the next 7 days.