Texas Summer 2022

[Haris]

3.6” at Austin Mabry breaking the daily record so far

[cstrunk]

Seems like this round is pretty much over for Longview. I ended up with 7.14".

7.10" within a 24 hour period from 3 pm Sunday to 3 pm Monday.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Pretty gnarly outflow boundary coming through Far Northern SA. Storms must be right on our doorstep. Hopefully we can get a decent amount of rain out of it.

[dpep4]

Some bad and surprising flooding out there, so the truth is bad enough but our idiot media just has to keep exaggerating. On NBC 5 just now:

"Flooding in Fair Park, as you can see the flood line on buildings reached 5 feet!" As they show video of the flood debris line literally at door handle level....

[Cpv17]

They did a pretty good job highlighting the current period way back. They've had a pretty good track record of providing risk (both heat and rain) overall I think.

Do you know what they’re seeing?

From their source it looks like probabilistic forecast from the GEFS that is calibrated.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/extremesToolAbout.php

There is currently a surge of moisture in the E-Carib that will take a path towards Texas with increased pwats on the models by that time frame. Also increased EPAC activity around the same time will provide upper moist flow, the deeper into the Fall season the more important that bit becomes.

That’s a potentially scary steering pattern setting up.

[weatherdude1108]

Guess it's Austin's turn.

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
536 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

TXC453-230015-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-220823T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Travis TX-
536 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY...

At 536 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain in and around the city of Austin.
The intersection of Lamar and 9th street is closed due to flooding.
Several low water crossings have also been closed. Gauge data shows
between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall
amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding
is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Austin, Pflugerville, Austin Bergstrom Int irport, Tanglewood
Forest, Windemere, Manor, West Lake Hills, Rollingwood, Barton
Creek, Onion Creek, Shady Hollow, Manchaca, Sunset Valley, San
Leanna, Camp Mabry, Del Valle, Lost Creek, McKinney Falls State
Park and Wells Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

[weatherdude1108]

Just started raining here. Flood advisory.

Austin about to get hit. Good, the more of Texas the better. San Antonio is next.

We'll get something hopefully. Seems so close yet so far.

I'm seeing another sneaky outflow heading southeast just as the storms get close yet again. We are just too far south for this pattern right now.

My brother in north SA texted it's "raining moderately for 7 minutes now. Might be trying to develop on top of us."

[HockeyTx82]

Some bad and surprising flooding out there, so the truth is bad enough but our idiot media just has to keep exaggerating. On NBC 5 just now:

"Flooding in Fair Park, as you can see the flood line on buildings reached 5 feet!" As they show video of the flood debris line literally at door handle level....

Just about on par for NBC....


[youtube]https://youtu.be/cgm3_jzcNm4[/youtube]

[bubba hotep]

IIRC, Ntxw mentioned that the record low high for today was 80F

[bubba hotep]

DFW approaching 1/3" for the day. I'm calling it now. Based on recent model trends and the evolving background state, DFW will end up with above avg rainfall for August. The bigger question - Can DFW rally for an avg rainfall year?

Texas should do fine temp/precp wise as we transition to Fall. Then the big question is will we see a 3rd winter in a row with significant winter wx in DFW?

[South Texas Storms]

Horrible to see what happened in Dallas last night. Hope everyone stayed safe up there.

The SA Airport rain gauge is cursed this year. Only 0.25 inch today. Depressing.

[Clearcloudz]

00Z HRRR Model for southeast Texas.



00Z NAM 3KM

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Horrible to see what happened in Dallas last night. Hope everyone stayed safe up there.

The SA Airport rain gauge is cursed this year. Only 0.25 inch today. Depressing.

It’s almost like we have a dome around us. Sucks.

[SoupBone]

Horrible to see what happened in Dallas last night. Hope everyone stayed safe up there.

The SA Airport rain gauge is cursed this year. Only 0.25 inch today. Depressing.

It’s almost like we have a dome around us. Sucks.

Can anyone seriously explain this? It doesn't make sense to me at all. It does look like we have something stopping it.

[Cpv17]

00Z HRRR Model for southeast Texas.

https://i.imgur.com/f9UkPKc.png

00Z NAM 3KM

https://i.imgur.com/dOKD28v.png

https://i.imgur.com/NUovuJl.jpg

Meh, doesn’t look like much for most areas. Last Friday will probably end up being the big winner for my area.

[jasons2k]

Storms are building across the Houston area.

[jasons2k]

It looks like the boundary is stalling across Harris County now. This could setup some training storms across metro Houston overnight.

[somethingfunny]

Horrible to see what happened in Dallas last night. Hope everyone stayed safe up there.

The SA Airport rain gauge is cursed this year. Only 0.25 inch today. Depressing.

It’s almost like we have a dome around us. Sucks.

Can anyone seriously explain this? It doesn't make sense to me at all. It does look like we have something stopping it.

It seems like the 2022 Summer Heat Wave and Drought has been shrinking toward the center of its' impact region over the past few weeks and may be gearing up for a dramatic end later on in Central Texas. One of these days, flood comes for us all.

I hope some of those extreme model outputs nearby Houston don't verify. Widespread 4-6 inches would be perfect

[South Texas Storms]

It looks like the boundary is stalling across Harris County now. This could setup some training storms across metro Houston overnight.

Yeah I picked up a little over 2 inches earlier this morning on the northwest side of town. Not too bad.

[Iceresistance]

Next week is looking very unsettled, it's a no wonder why the CPC has taken note of the heavy rainfall potential for Texas.