STORM2K

90's are about to get the boot as normalish temps are on the way. My AC unit is looking forward to some down time..

GFS already backing off on it’s long-range cool solutions. Where have I seen this before?

 https://twitter.com/NWSJacksonville/status/1052661351028576256

We've got breezy conditions and mid 80's for highs by Sunday and lows in the upper 60's. I'll take it!

I will take anything over the record breaking heat we had here in Jax yesterday. As the NWS Jax tweet above pointed out, the hottest day ever so late in the season occured yesterday. That is insane!

I am so ready for cool weather!!

TheStormExpert wrote:GFS already backing off on it’s long-range cool solutions. Where have I seen this before?

Nope...

I will take that...

SFLcane wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:GFS already backing off on it’s long-range cool solutions. Where have I seen this before?

Nope...

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/18/gfs.png

Well the overnight 00z and 06z runs did. Also, looks like the Euro may be caving to the GFS with a more pronounced front moving through just before Halloween.

I'm getting more interested in the persistently wet predictions showing up in the cpc outlooks. The heat is certain to relent soon. it has no choice. El nino tends to bring interesting and dynamic weather to florida during the cold season. Now that the tropical season is (most likely) in the can for us...a focus on nino and an active subtropical jet with its attendant storminess and svr wx potential really has my attention.

psyclone wrote:I'm getting more interested in the persistently wet predictions showing up in the cpc outlooks. The heat is certain to relent soon. it has no choice. El nino tends to bring interesting and dynamic weather to florida during the cold season. Now that the tropical season is (most likely) in the can for us...a focus on nino and an active subtropical jet with its attendant storminess and svr wx potential really has my attention.

I totally agree psyclone. El Nino usually brings wet and colder.conditions during winter and it could brong some opportunities of wintry precip to the Deep South and even North Florida. Don"t forget, we had wintry precip even down into Central Florida during the 2009-10 winter, which if my memory serves me correct, was an El Nino winter season.

Florida has really lame October weather and fall foliage, lol.

canes92 wrote:Florida has really lame October weather and fall foliage, lol.

The leaves don't change color here, they just die.

canes92 wrote:Florida has really lame October weather and fall foliage, lol.

The leaves don’t change color, but the licenses plates do!

TheStormExpert wrote:

canes92 wrote:Florida has really lame October weather and fall foliage, lol.

The leaves don’t change color, but the licenses plates do! [/quote

Ha ha really funny,that was a good one I have to remember that one.

Not all Nino winters (if that's what this is) are cold......I remember the 1997 winter being very wet, without much in the way of cold air.

There's almost always some little front around the end of October.....NAO looks like it'll take a dip around that time, so makes sense. PNA not overwhelmingly positive though, so I might not look for record cold, probably just a little dry shot then a quick return to easterly flow, especially in S FL.

This is sad and funny at the same time!

 https://twitter.com/bshieldswftv/status/1053053361346486273

Patrick99 wrote:Not all Nino winters (if that's what this is) are cold......I remember the 1997 winter being very wet, without much in the way of cold air.

There's almost always some little front around the end of October.....NAO looks like it'll take a dip around that time, so makes sense. PNA not overwhelmingly positive though, so I might not look for record cold, probably just a little dry shot then a quick return to easterly flow, especially in S FL.

It all depends on how negative and frequency of the NAO going negative throughout the winter here in Florida to determine hold cold it gets.

I’m going to guess that the NAO was positive during that winter, does anyone have any proof to back that up?

TheStormExpert wrote:

Patrick99 wrote:Not all Nino winters (if that's what this is) are cold......I remember the 1997 winter being very wet, without much in the way of cold air.

There's almost always some little front around the end of October.....NAO looks like it'll take a dip around that time, so makes sense. PNA not overwhelmingly positive though, so I might not look for record cold, probably just a little dry shot then a quick return to easterly flow, especially in S FL.

It all depends on how negative and frequency of the NAO going negative throughout the winter here in Florida to determine hold cold it gets.

I’m going to guess that the NAO was positive during that winter, does anyone have any proof to back that up?

Slightly negative average



https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/

Say good bye to the 90s for a while. Cloud cover will keep temps near average, looks like the usual converging rains for this time of the year along the Atlantic coast setting up first in SE coastal FL early next week then into the central and northern Atlantic FL coast later in the week, typical of when we see on shore cooler air moving over the still very warm Atlantic ocean.
Regarding temps for the upcoming winter it will all depend overall on the NAO, in my opinion. A continuing +NAO pattern over all will mean a mostly average to above average temps like the last El Nino.
The last really cold El Nino year, '09/'10 winter, the NAO had already flipped to negative by this time already.

NDG wrote:Say good bye to the 90s for a while. Cloud cover will keep temps near average, looks like the usual converging rains for this time of the year along the Atlantic coast setting up first in SE coastal FL early next week then into the central and northern Atlantic FL coast later in the week, typical of when we see on shore cooler air moving over the still very warm Atlantic ocean.
Regarding temps for the upcoming winter it will all depend overall on the NAO, in my opinion. A continuing +NAO pattern over all will mean a mostly average to above average temps like the last El Nino.
The last really cold El Nino year, '09/'10 winter, the NAO had already flipped to negative by this time already.

What do you think about the NAO going negative for the first time since late spring next week?