Florida Weather
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- SFLcane
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Re: Florida Weather
Finally!!! It has been been a long time since Florida has been covered in blue
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- SFLcane
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Re: Florida Weather
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Re: Florida Weather
GFS trends are actually indicating some impressively low mid level heights early next week; So much so, that I would anticipate cold air advection capable of even spreading some low temps into the 40's along the I-4 corridor and 50's into far S. Florida. Melbourne WSO hasn't quite yet embraced those kind of numbers yet but they're beginning to better reflect recent model run consistancy, into their long range discussion.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Florida Weather
The lows over the weekend here will be in the upper 60s which is 15 to 20 degrees warmer than Orlando.
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Re: Florida Weather
we've got a chance for some really snappy nights next week before a warming trend resumes...the 8-14 day is already tilting back warm. At least the heat is done and normals have fallen to a point where running a tad high isn't bad at all. in the meantime...I can't wait for a little chill..
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Florida Weather
After a bullish 00z run overnight with 50’s well into S.FL for next Tuesday and Wednesday mornings the GFS has backed off a bit on its 06z and 12z runs.
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Re: Florida Weather
TheStormExpert wrote:After a bullish 00z run overnight with 50’s well into S.FL for next Tuesday and Wednesday mornings the GFS has backed off a bit on its 06z and 12z runs.
Yep, it looks like the GFS is going to "windshield-wipe" us with cold fronts like it does with tropical systems
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Florida Weather
GFS always with its usual early season bias, being too aggressive with "cooler" temps in its forecast. Looking at night's MOS guidance temps will end up being only a couple of degrees lower than average across the state for this weekend into early next week.
Interesting that ensembles now show the NAO to stay negative to near average over the next couple of weeks but the PNA is going to stay near neutral, you want that PNA to be way positive this time of the year for even cooler wx to come down to FL.
Interesting that ensembles now show the NAO to stay negative to near average over the next couple of weeks but the PNA is going to stay near neutral, you want that PNA to be way positive this time of the year for even cooler wx to come down to FL.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
Yes indeed NDG. Positive PNA is a very important component for bringing cold air intrusions into the Deep South and most of Florida. We saw this at the end of December 2017 and the beginning of January 2018.
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Re: Florida Weather
That's what I was thinking, the neutral-ish PNA limiting the extent of this cool shot, especially for South Florida.
I'm sure it'll still feel much cooler, though, even if the low temp is 69-70, with lower dewpoints and a breeze eventually whipping out of the ENE. It'll be early April-type weather.
I'm sure it'll still feel much cooler, though, even if the low temp is 69-70, with lower dewpoints and a breeze eventually whipping out of the ENE. It'll be early April-type weather.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Florida Weather
Patrick99 wrote:That's what I was thinking, the neutral-ish PNA limiting the extent of this cool shot, especially for South Florida.
I'm sure it'll still feel much cooler, though, even if the low temp is 69-70, with lower dewpoints and a breeze eventually whipping out of the ENE. It'll be early April-type weather.
The PNA is positive for now, but come next week it’ll be in a neutral to negative state.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Florida Weather
SFLcane wrote:60's state wide bring it on...
https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/25/cool.png
Unless you live along the immediate coast lines.
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- FlaWeatherDude
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Re: Florida Weather
The Euro and to some extent the GFS is showing a more significant trough for next weekend. Since we're still in a -QBO regime I'd favor the eastern models(as opposed to the 0z CMC's wacky stationary central US dip(that usually happens during a stout +QBO like in 2013-14 and dec 2016)!
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"Windy has wings to fly above the clouds".
Re: Florida Weather
FlaWeatherDude wrote:The Euro and to some extent the GFS is showing a more significant trough for next weekend. Since we're still in a -QBO regime I'd favor the eastern models(as opposed to the 0z CMC's wacky stationary central US dip(that usually happens during a stout +QBO like in 2013-14 and dec 2016)!
Is negative but not as negative as this same time last year.
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Re: Florida Weather
Just a couple of days ago the headlines were what a "cool" Halloween we were going to have, now the forecast is for highs well into the 80s all across the Peninsula.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Florida Weather
NDG wrote:Just a couple of days ago the headlines were what a "cool" Halloween we were going to have, now the forecast is for highs well into the 80s all across the Peninsula.
Yep I guess the -NAO and +PNA won't be working their magic this time despite being in a favorable state right now.
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