STORM2K

boca wrote:We might be an a El Niño watch or on the verge of El Niño, but the pattern we are in is La Niña which is warm and dry.

That's the +NAO that has been keeping us warm, which is not that unusual to have during an EL Nino year. People in TX would probably say that their pattern so far has been very El Nino like.
Good example that this pattern is not usual to have during an early El Nino is 2015, despite a Super El Nino that winter November & Decembers were fairly dry and warmer than average.

well my Wednesday high has gone from the mid 60's to 80...but the extended outlook for Friday and the weekend says 70 degree highs and mid 50's lows. While that would be exquisite weather there's plenty of time to move the goal posts...

boca wrote:We might be an a El Niño watch or on the verge of El Niño, but the pattern we are in is La Niña which is warm and dry.

Lots of rain in coastal Boca Raton last night which was a welcome surprise.

whenever you see a big dip in the jetstream in the models(showing cold for Florida), if thier also showing a strong shortwave over Mexico/offshore Pacific, more then likely they'll back off because of a trough split-denying Florida any cold air. That's exactly what's happening for mid week. However there is no strong s/w next weekend/early next week in the aftermentioned areas so that cold potential has some legs! If not at least by Friday through Thanksgiving or so looks seasonably cool(hopefully that doesn't change into a hot turkey day). I'll take it!

NDG wrote:

FlaWeatherDude wrote:Regarding the NAO if we can get the Scandinavian ridge to retrograde towards Greenand, game on for December! Eric Webb hinted at this on twitter. Not only could it give us a prolonged -NAO for next month but also a possible sudden stratuspheric warming event down the road! Next weeks cold front won't get that much below 60 in Orlando lol. In fact models are trending toward a stronger cool down next weekend. I would't doubt if that tread continues.

Heck I wouldn't at all be surprised if tommorrow models completely back off on a front next week and go gang busters on next weekends front lol.

Eric Webb has been calling for a -NAO since the summer and it has not materialize.

You mean an El Nino . Eric hasn't talked about anything NAO regated until recently.

Models are hinting at a Scandinavian ridge retrograde into Greenland! This should keep a southeast ridge from forming Thanksgiving week(thank goodness).





Though Positive Mountain Torque will make the Pacific unfavorable around Thanksgiving towards end of month.



https://esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

Thereafter as the +MT wanes, we could be talking about an awesome December! Fingers crossed!!!

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1061602575181643777

FlaWeatherDude wrote:

NDG wrote:

FlaWeatherDude wrote:Regarding the NAO if we can get the Scandinavian ridge to retrograde towards Greenand, game on for December! Eric Webb hinted at this on twitter. Not only could it give us a prolonged -NAO for next month but also a possible sudden stratuspheric warming event down the road! Next weeks cold front won't get that much below 60 in Orlando lol. In fact models are trending toward a stronger cool down next weekend. I would't doubt if that tread continues.

Heck I wouldn't at all be surprised if tommorrow models completely back off on a front next week and go gang busters on next weekends front lol.

Eric Webb has been calling for a -NAO since the summer and it has not materialize.

You mean an El Nino . Eric hasn't talked about anything NAO regated until recently.

In the summer he posted how the NAO was going to go negative during late summer/early Autumn with an incoming El Nino, he made the comparison to 2009 when a lot of pros were pointing out to 2009 as analog year.

And he is still pushing the -NAO as of today. I for one am hoping he is right in a sense so it can start feeling like the holidays in time for the holidays. Hate having to wait until after the new year for any significant cool downs!

looks like some cooler air is finally on the way and it's going to hang around for more than a day. some highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's for central florida and perhaps a day or 2 of sub 70 highs. bring it!

The Atlantic Ridge is at the moment putting the brakes on the cold front, which is ever so slowly.moving through the extreme western panhandle at this time. Temps are in the low to mid 50s with rain out in Pensacola and Crestview at this hour.

Meanwhile, it is a toasty 86 degrees here on the home thermometer currently.

Cold front progged to finally move through Jax area late tomorrow/ early Thursday. Rain chances does increase late tonight into Thursday.

Cooler temps here Thursday night into Friday .RaIn ends with the cold frontal passage here late Thursday, then clearing and cooler weather finally. Min temps forecast to get down near 40 degrees interior colder areas of Northeast Florida Friday morning.

Well, another record max temperature record set this afternoon at the NWS Jax office.
.
87 degrees .

This broke the record of 86, which had stood since 1899 on this date.

This is the third record max temp recordrd this month already.

Just another day at the beach in this area.

Hopefully the cooldown is coming to put me in the holiday mood by Friday.

Had some storms roll through this evening. Took this picture in Stuart a little after 5 PM

Interesting model runs by the GFS suites, showing a potential squall line (derecho?) event heading into Thanksgiving/Black Friday. This has been shown over the past couple runs.

I saw that earlier in the long range. Indeed, that would be very interestiing if it pans out. This would be a potential classic El Nino ish storm pattern with the active sub tropical jet stream impacting the peninsula.

There will likely be more changes to this as time progresses as this is still just under 10 days out.

However, definitely something to keep an eye on going into Thanksgiving week.

NWS Miami current forecast for this week has really tightened the brakes on any kind of significant cool air. Feels like summer. They are mentioning one night in the mid-60s. So overall, this is going to be completely blocked off by the SW Atlantic ridge.....which by the way is showing up plain as day on the satellite loop. If you want cold air into Florida, that is not what you want your satellite loop looking like.

We have the NAO forecasted to go decently negative by months end, now if we could just get the PNA to go and stay positive for more than just a few seconds.

TheStormExpert wrote:We have the NAO forecasted to go decently negative by months end, now if we could just get the PNA to go and stay positive for more than just a few seconds.

That was funny about the PNA being positive and the NAO being negative for a few seconds as well

Warm Novembers are nothing new to me, but wow is it ever hot and nasty outside. 85 with 72% humidity right now. Plus the sun makes it feel like it's about a thousand degrees.

Patrick99 wrote:NWS Miami current forecast for this week has really tightened the brakes on any kind of significant cool air. Feels like summer. They are mentioning one night in the mid-60s. So overall, this is going to be completely blocked off by the SW Atlantic ridge.....which by the way is showing up plain as day on the satellite loop. If you want cold air into Florida, that is not what you want your satellite loop looking like.

Well it's still nice to see some sort of a front plow through the pesky SE ridge this time of year regardless of how cool it actually gets behind it.

It's obnoxious out there today but we're on the verge of much better conditions and even some jacket weather down to the I-4 corridor. temps are expected to fall through the 60's tomorrow during the day as long overdue legit cold air advection gets underway.