STORM2K

Except for Friday I am looking forward to the average to slightly below average temps over the next 7-10 days, as much as I love warm tropical wx is nice to get some California style wx with confortable mild to warm afternoons & cool nights. Glad we didn't get the 30s for lows that at one the models had on their med range forecast for this week.

The FV3-GFS at 18Z is still bullish on a system traversing the Gulf on Black Friday impacting our state.
Just an interesting thing to watch everyday on the models.

MetroMike wrote:The FV3-GFS at 18Z is still bullish on a system traversing the Gulf on Black Friday impacting our state.
Just an interesting thing to watch everyday on the models.

Pretty far out in time to truly believe but interesting nonetheless:

A nearly 45° temperature difference from Pensacola, FL to the extreme SE FL coastline this morning all in thanks to a slowly sagging east frontal boundary located near Lake O.

 https://twitter.com/FeliciaCombs_/status/1063057418559598593

FV3 still bullish .... no support really though ...

gatorcane wrote:

MetroMike wrote:The FV3-GFS at 18Z is still bullish on a system traversing the Gulf on Black Friday impacting our state.
Just an interesting thing to watch everyday on the models.

Pretty far out in time to truly believe but interesting nonetheless:

https://i.postimg.cc/d0LnJkMs/fv3p-mslp-pcpn-watl-36.png

Would love to see this happen.

TheStormExpert wrote:A nearly 45° temperature difference from Pensacola, FL to the extreme SE FL coastline this morning all in thanks to a slowly sagging east frontal boundary located near Lake O.

https://twitter.com/FeliciaCombs_/status/1063057418559598593

Let's see how many times this fall/winter/spring SE Florida will be the warmest place in the country. Those maps are always good for a laugh.

Patrick99 wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:A nearly 45° temperature difference from Pensacola, FL to the extreme SE FL coastline this morning all in thanks to a slowly sagging east frontal boundary located near Lake O.

https://twitter.com/FeliciaCombs_/status/1063057418559598593

Let's see how many times this fall/winter/spring SE Florida will be the warmest place in the country. Those maps are always good for a laugh.

And when you zoom out to the entire country, we see SE Florida is the only warm place as is usually the case during the winter months:

30s all the way down to Mexico City this morning
Lets see what the forecasted -NAO & -AO will do to us over the next couple of weeks.

And here is your -NAO now bring those chilly temps down into Florida.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1063073630249250816

Classic blocking ridge setting up over Greenland by the beginning of December. This alone is a key indicator of a developing -NAO.

Saw this last night and briefly talked about in the Texas Fall Thread. Potentially, many in the Eastern CONUS could be feeing the wrath of Old Man Winter very soon if the models are right.

El Nino, a developing -NAO and some hints the PNA also may go positive.

A very interesting weather pattern for Florida as well could be in store with the active sub tropical jet in the coming weeks.. The prospects for much colder weather ahead for us is looking considerably probable as we move into December, if the models and teleconnections continue to align right.

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1063152818830393344

So far the Euro is not biting on the GFS solution.

18Z GFS models coming in weaker on this feature

Models have been all over the place in the pattern for late next week. They show a strong low, then they back off, then they bring it back. Models are having a hard time with the developing split-flow pattern and timing of shortwaves in the southern stream. Kind of El Nino-like. It does look like models are showing some kind of disturbance late next week moving east from the Gulf, but let's see what the models do over the next few days.

nice have cold weather deep south part florida been too warm for nov middle 80ds and upper 70 night to low 60s and high in upper 70s

toad strangler wrote:FV3 still bullish .... no support really though ...

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc107/softparade1313/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_36.png

miami weather office talking about florida could get bad weather doing long weekend but say too early too know

Realistically for Thanksgiving:Black Friday the models are enthusiastic,than back off the closer the event. The Euro shows nothing.Its rare especially in S Fl to get interesting weather during the dry season, especially with cold fronts that dry up before getting down here because the vorticity is already lifting out at that point.

boca wrote:Realistically for Thanksgiving:Black Friday the models are enthusiastic,than back off the closer the event. The Euro shows nothing.Its rare especially in S Fl to get interesting weather during the dry season, especially with cold fronts that dry up before getting down here because the vorticity is already lifting out at that point.

It’s never rare in an El Niño winter. Though the interesting weather typically happens in the later part of winter closer to spring than in November or December.

Just like that the GFS drops low pressure in the gulf..it also looks like back to summertime as soon as this weekend with no real cold air in sight for Florida.