STORM2K

Enjoy this morning’s temperatures because that’s it on the cold fronts for S Fl for the time being. I saw that the NAO is supposed to tank so why isn’t the weather cooperating.

boca wrote:Enjoy this morning’s temperatures because that’s it on the cold fronts for S Fl for the time being. I saw that the NAO is supposed to tank so why isn’t the weather cooperating.

I'm guessing it will but chances are that we'll have to wait until after Thanksgiving to see it. Models are every bit as inconsistent as they were during hurricane season LOL?! Well, at least there will be another fire in my fireplace this evening! Enjoying it while we've got it.

SFLcane wrote:Just like that the GFS drops low pressure in the gulf..it also looks like back to summertime as soon as this weekend with no real cold air in sight for Florida.

Seems there is some possible development but once the area is east of Florida on the Atlantic side. The Euro has picked up on this as well.

This could be a case where models are lagging to notice the negative NAO/AO. Also, the PNA is really not forecasted to go positive (if at all) until week two. So the SE/Western Atlantic Ridge is probably likely to stick around for sometime longer until the PNA goes fully positive.

Looks like a huge temp gradient from Panhandle to SE Florida tonight with around low 30s in the panhandle and mid 60s for coastal SE Florida. Even a decent gradient from SW Florida to SE Florida with about a 10F difference and about a 15F+ difference between SE Florida and Central Florida. Looks like the brisk north winds across coastal SE Florida mix in some warmth from the Gulf Stream plus there are some clouds around to help moderate the temps.

Scandinavian ridge is going to coalesce to become a legit west-based -NAO/Greenland block. Still probably 2-3 weeks away from seeing the effects in Florida, but I suspect in about a week or so, colder air might begin to show up in models making a move at the sunshine state, in moderated form.

In the low 60’s in NE Palm Beach County right now, but I’m sure things will moderate some once the winds veer more Northeasterly overnight.

In Orlando I expect mostly average highs/lows next week(upper 70's/upper 50's) since the Pacific won't play ball(with the -AO/NAO) until the following week and beyond. The pattern could very well get real convoluted down the road!

Looks like back to the beaches across FL next week during thanksgiving but wait it actually never feels like the holidays in Florida.

Oh, patience good Storm2k neighbor down south of me. I see decent potential of cold snaps headed for the Deep South and Florida as we turn the calendar to December.

Patience is always the best virtue as the script always tells us....

BTW. bottomed out at 36.7 degrees back on Friday morning. The coldest of the early season at my home locale thus far...

I can remember multiple years in recent memory of cool/cold Thanksgiving's here in S.FL. 2012, 2013, and 2014 all were I believe cooler than average at least here in S.FL on Thanksgiving Day.

Now this year probably will be about average for Turkey Day but there are hints of a pattern change starting at the earliest late next weekend, it may finally get colder in time for the holiday season.

The latest 00z NAEFS Temperature Probability Outlook for 11/26-12/3 shows the cooler probabilities spreading south towards FL, the CPC usually follows this in making their afternoon temperature outlooks.

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

Oh, patience good Storm2k neighbor down south of me. I see decent potential of cold snaps headed for the Deep South and Florida as we turn the calendar to December.

Patience is always the best virtue as the script always tells us....



BTW. bottomed out at 36.7 degrees back on Friday morning. The coldest of the early season at my home locale thus far...

Hey northjaxpro, I will believe it when I see it. Models trend colder only to bring back summertime. It’s kinda hard to get into holiday spirit in SFL

SFLcane wrote:

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

Oh, patience good Storm2k neighbor down south of me. I see decent potential of cold snaps headed for the Deep South and Florida as we turn the calendar to December.

Patience is always the best virtue as the script always tells us....



BTW. bottomed out at 36.7 degrees back on Friday morning. The coldest of the early season at my home locale thus far...

Hey northjaxpro, I will believe it when I see it. Models trend colder only to bring back summertime. It’s kinda hard to get into holiday spirit in SFL

Yeah I am with you about that. It is very tough to get in the holiday spirit with summer-like conditions.

But, I am hopeful with the pending -NAO. that cooler to colder weather is coming within the next couple of weeks

FWIW, the -NAO and +PNA period might be shorter than originally anticipated as of this mornings update.

By the time we get a cool front not a cold front the NAO will be back to positive. The result will be weak fronts which drop our temps into the 60s at night and upper 70s during the day because as the front which is decaying by the time it reaches South Florida the wind is already out of the NE, not NW which would give us lower temps.I’m just frustrated over the dry and warm winters we get here and I want a change which apparently by the graph that the Storm Expert posted is not happening.

I was looking why the models do not show much of cool down for FL over the next 7-14 days despite a -NAO, -AO & +PNA
The reason is the EPO going positive which will make the pattern to stay progressive across the US, good news is that it will bring much needed rains to the NW US and at least the northern half of CA!

BTW, you will never see me look at the CMC, that model is cold biased.

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

Oh, patience good Storm2k neighbor down south of me. I see decent potential of cold snaps headed for the Deep South and Florida as we turn the calendar to December.

Patience is always the best virtue as the script always tells us....

BTW. bottomed out at 36.7 degrees back on Friday morning. The coldest of the early season at my home locale thus far...

That's because you only live just a few miles from GA
You should go by GA's winter forecast not FL's, j/k

NDG wrote:

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

Oh, patience good Storm2k neighbor down south of me. I see decent potential of cold snaps headed for the Deep South and Florida as we turn the calendar to December.

Patience is always the best virtue as the script always tells us....

BTW. bottomed out at 36.7 degrees back on Friday morning. The coldest of the early season at my home locale thus far...

That's because you only live just a few miles from GA
You should go by GA's winter forecast not FL's, j/k

Yeah lol.. You have a good point NDG. Ir took you to make me realize this reality in winter. I am ony 25 miles literally. from the. Florida- Georgia state line after all

I would prefer warm, balmy weather than the freezing temps I am seeing up north. Isn’t that is why we are in Florida?!?

Well, gatorcane, for most of you, that what you are saying is true. However, I like the novelty of having some cooler weather for a change in winter down here. We get the warm and muggies 10 months a year down our way. Plus, we need freezes to combat the mosquito population we deal with otherwise.