STORM2K

NDG wrote:I was looking why the models do not show much of cool down for FL over the next 7-14 days despite a -NAO, -AO & +PNA
The reason is the EPO going positive which will make the pattern to stay progressive across the US, good news is that it will bring much needed rains to the NW US and at least the northern half of CA!

BTW, you will never see me look at the CMC, that model is cold biased.

Yep....it’s always something.

NDG wrote:I was looking why the models do not show much of cool down for FL over the next 7-14 days despite a -NAO, -AO & +PNA
The reason is the EPO going positive which will make the pattern to stay progressive across the US, good news is that it will bring much needed rains to the NW US and at least the northern half of CA!

BTW, you will never see me look at the CMC, that model is cold biased.

Do you see the EPO going back negative anytime soon?

gatorcane wrote:I would prefer warm, balmy weather than the freezing temps I am seeing up north. Isn’t that is why we are in Florida?!?

The airmass always modifies on the way to Florida so freezing temperatures or below is very unlikely.

Amazing weather over Florida...at least this part of florida. it requires no heat and no AC and makes you feel good to be alive. The teleconnection for cold in florida is I-75 or I-95 north. Enjoy it. We pay our rent in the Summer and now we get to cash our tickets.

TheStormExpert wrote:

NDG wrote:I was looking why the models do not show much of cool down for FL over the next 7-14 days despite a -NAO, -AO & +PNA
The reason is the EPO going positive which will make the pattern to stay progressive across the US, good news is that it will bring much needed rains to the NW US and at least the northern half of CA!

BTW, you will never see me look at the CMC, that model is cold biased.

Do you see the EPO going back negative anytime soon?

Not through the next 2 weeks.

"I can remember multiple years in recent memory of cool/cold Thanksgiving's here in S.FL. 2012, 2013, and 2014 all were I believe cooler than average at least here in S.FL on Thanksgiving Day."

There was also that Thanksgiving in the 1990s when the Dolphins beat Dallas in the snow at Dallas - it was quite cold here too that day (for November).

Extreme long range GFS maybe some cold air into SFL? Naaaa

CPC is showing normal to somewhat below normal temps over the next couple of weeks during what is certainly not a hot time of year. It looks like we're finally getting some seasonal weather this year which stands in contrast to recent years which have trended warm to freakishly warm. Another fantastic day here in the bay area and the next week looks superb overall.

The 00Z GFS run tonight showing a deepening upper level trough across the Eastern CONUS, showing the base of the trough diving toward the Gulf Coast area between 212 -228 hours.

GFS showing potential freeze across the Florida Panhandle and North Florida next week if this run verfies.

06Z GFS shows the same

Yet it only cools down into the 50'S on the GFS real cold air never makes it here. Whats new i guess

Why is it so hard to get anything below 60 degrees in S Fl,even with a - NAO?

boca wrote:Why is it so hard to get anything below 60 degrees in S Fl,even with a - NAO?

Because pattern is progressive this week, but I think models will trend colder for next week once the PNA goes really positive before the NAO gets out of the negative terriotry.

SFLcane wrote::uarrow: Yet it only cools down into the 50'S on the GFS real cold air never makes it here. Whats new i guess

I’ll take the 50’s it shows! At least it actually shows a decent cool down, especially for daytime highs.

We'll see. In the extended forecast, Weather Channel shows a low of 60 for Miami on November 28. Has it pretty much bouncing right back up to the mid-upper 60s next few days though. Your typical South Florida grazing/glancing cool shot, I think.

Experience has told me never to really expect any "cold" weather in South Florida until we get to that magic window of about Christmas to the 3rd week of January. That's when the vast majority of our true cold snaps have occurred, and I doubt this year will be much different. January is the clear coldest month of the year down here.....anything we get in the other months are just bonuses to me. What gets a bit disturbing is when *January* itself goes by with little but warm/hot days. Lately, we've had too many of those.

I actually remember many, many more warm and even hot Thanksgivings in Miami than chilly ones. Last year's was downright hot. It just isn't uncommon here to have warm weather in late November.

Even Christmas is a bit iffy. I feel like I'm about 50/50 on cool/warm Miami Christmases.

Today is essentially a summer day in Miami....it feels hot and sticky. And I see towering clouds trying to set up just west of the city on the seabreeze.

In 10-15 days the EPO is progected to go negative. That with a persistant -AO/NAO I believe will do the works! Also the PNA should persistantly go positive by then too. I wouldn't doubt Florida will get it's coldest air before Christmas for a change. That hasn't happened since December 2010 when Orlando dipped into the upper 20's mid-month!

I looked at the graph for the NAO and it’s forecast to go back to positive after Dec 1st

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

Gfs and euro with a continuation of summer in Florida while the insane Canadian brings 30’s all the way down
down to SFL.

For now a progressive pattern across the US will not let the core of the Arctic air come down to the FL Peninsula, at least through the next 7-10 days.
What a waste of a -NAO for the cold wx lovers down here