Texas Fall-2015

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like Mr. Niño is showing himself.

My rain gauge this morning shows 8.73 inches.

736
FXUS64 KEWX 250906
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
406 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HELPING
TO MINIMIZE POSSIBLE LOW CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH THE LARGE AMOUNTS
OF SOIL MOISTURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX COULD EXCEED MODEL
PREDICTIONS FOR CLOUD COVER. A RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHERLIES LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD FAVOR A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FOG FORMATION OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES. MODELS SHOW DECREASING
AGREEMENT WITH THE ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND THE
RESULTING SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THURSDAY. WILL DEFER TO
THE GFS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS SHOWING A WEAK FRONT
ON THURSDAY AND A DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PATTERN FRIDAY.

MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE DIGGING TO THE SW LATE FRIDAY. WILL TAKE A BLENDED
GUIDANCE APPROACH IN THE RETURN OF POPS SHOWING INCREASING POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE WET PATTERN LOOKS TO LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING A HEAVY
RAIN PATTERN AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCES POINT TO LIKELY
POPS...BUT WITH A WIDE TIME WINDOW FOR RAINS...WILL CAP POPS AT 50
PERCENT UNTIL THE SYNOPTIC MODEL PATTERNS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT.

&&
 

[NDG]

Good thing the heaviest rains with the low pressure over the gulf this morning has stayed south of Houston/Galveston but might be aiming Beaumont and SW LA.

[wxman57]

I measured 7.5" in SW Houston so far, making for 62.7" this year. The rain was spread out over 12 hours so no significant street flooding around me. Another rainy weekend (next weekend) to close out October.

[NDG]

Looks like the much anticipated wet El Nino pattern for the southern US is here by looking at the long range forecast.

[Ntxw]

And now the Euro has the 5-10" next week lol. Jesus. It has a big slow moving trough

[NDG]

Imagine if we were in the middle of winter with a storm similar to this, there would had been some nice frozen precip over interior TX

[Portastorm]

And now the Euro has the 5-10" next week lol. Jesus. It has a big slow moving trough

I noticed that as well. Yesterday's 12z Euro was more progressive with the system as is today's 0z and 6z GFS. Will be interesting to see the trends on this one.

Meanwhile, the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Austin has recorded 6.65" of rain in the last 48 hours.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

For some reason my rain gauge quit at 4.07". Still reported everything else but stopped reporting rain. Very strange. Did this in the middle of the big rain event in may too. I dont think ive ever seen a system like this here in houston. Def has tropical storm force winds on the coast and off the coast

[srainhoutx]

Just emptied 6.62 inches of glorious rain out of the old rain bucket in NW Harris County. This was sorely needed for all of the Region. Looking more likely we will add to our Monthly rainfall totals on Halloween as we end the month.

[Brent]

And now the Euro has the 5-10" next week lol. Jesus. It has a big slow moving trough

Weatherbug and The Weather Channel apps are on the slower train now with rain for DFW Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and even next Monday

[dhweather]

Storm total in Heath - 8.25"

I haven't looked at anything yet for next week, but it sounds as if there's more to come.

[Ralph's Weather]

Cloudy, breezy and temps un the high 50s, beautiful. Next weekend looks like more of the same, maybe less rain but likely cooler.

[Ntxw]

Beautiful week this week. After a good soaking rain. This is the fall weather we all wanted, we'll a better grasp on next weekend by Tuesday. Doesn't look good for trick or treaters

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm not sure if I'm correct, but from what limited data I can see on the 12z Euro, next weekend's trough/cutoff low is more progressive than on the 0z. That being said, it seems to be ready to send in yet another system shortly after 10 days. The 12z GFS seems to agree on the progressive nature of next weekend's system, but still wants to drop several inches of rain on the state during that time. Afterwards, however, it doesn't want to dig the following trough as deep as the Euro in the day 10 time frame.

Hopefully my analysis is at least somewhat accurate, I've gotten a little rusty on model reading lately.

[weatherdude1108]

The rain stopped and the streets are drying up. The Grande total at my place since Wednesday is 8.80 inches.

[Shoshana]

We got at least 9" of rain in the last 48 hours.

We had .5" in the gauge Friday afternoon. Didn't empty it but should have! Saturday morning around 8 am we had more than 5" in the gauge - it was almost to the top, I think that would be 6", so a bit less. This morning around 9 there was 3.5" in the gauge. I emptied it but it rained again. Not much, more drizzly.

We now have 2 windows to recaulk, one fence post to replace and two sections of fence to rebuild. Other than that, I think we're ok.

So we're supposed to get more rain later this week??? I hope we can dry out enough so that we can at least recaulk...

[JDawg512]

I still have to do my total rainfall calculation. Haven't checked the gauge today.

At least it's stopped raining just in time for the Formula One United States Grand Prix!

[funster]

A few things askew here in the monthly climactic chart:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/climo/climo ... nt_dfw_wks

A good source tho generally Interesting times. Hope there is a break this Halloween weekend for the kids.

[Portastorm]

Take it for what it's worth a week out ... 12z GFS shows 2 1/2" of rain for the Austin metro through Halloween, while the 12z Euro shows 4-6". Good to see you, Mr. L. Nino.

[dhweather]

Take it for what it's worth a week out ... 12z GFS shows 2 1/2" of rain for the Austin metro through Halloween, while the 12z Euro shows 4-6". Good to see you, Mr. L. Nino.

But no cat 5 in the gulf