STORM2K

Through May 18 I have had a grand huge total of 1 severe thunderstorm warning here, 0 enhanced risks (although there was one just to my south, same day as the severe warning), and 0 slight risks or higher so far in May (2 borderline days just to my south, but neither produced here). Still holding out hope for the end of the month but we're on a crazy inactive pace this year... There has never been a single May that I know of that didn't have at least 1 enhanced risk here (even 2018 and 2020 at least had 1) Maybe we can get a nice MCS season this year. I don't root for huge outbreaks but some slight risks and an occasional wind driven enhanced would be nice instead of a completely dead pattern... Everything has been either west, south, or east

Weather Dude wrote:Through May 18 I have had a grand huge total of 1 severe thunderstorm warning here, 0 enhanced risks (although there was one just to my south, same day as the severe warning), and 0 slight risks or higher so far in May (2 borderline days just to my south, but neither produced here). Still holding out hope for the end of the month but we're on a crazy inactive pace this year... There has never been a single May that I know of that didn't have at least 1 enhanced risk here (even 2018 and 2020 at least had 1) Maybe we can get a nice MCS season this year. I don't root for huge outbreaks but some slight risks and an occasional wind driven enhanced would be nice instead of a completely dead pattern... Everything has been either west, south, or east

the clock is ticking too... next week is looking pretty summer-lite from what I've seen

Brent wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:Through May 18 I have had a grand huge total of 1 severe thunderstorm warning here, 0 enhanced risks (although there was one just to my south, same day as the severe warning), and 0 slight risks or higher so far in May (2 borderline days just to my south, but neither produced here). Still holding out hope for the end of the month but we're on a crazy inactive pace this year... There has never been a single May that I know of that didn't have at least 1 enhanced risk here (even 2018 and 2020 at least had 1) Maybe we can get a nice MCS season this year. I don't root for huge outbreaks but some slight risks and an occasional wind driven enhanced would be nice instead of a completely dead pattern... Everything has been either west, south, or east

the clock is ticking too... next week is looking pretty summer-lite from what I've seen

Yeah models have been pretty consistent on that. Looks like June is starting early this year. Hopefully we'll get some nice MCSs

My CAPE Alert System will not be active for a few days, these setups right now are odd . . .

Weather Dude wrote:

Brent wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:Through May 18 I have had a grand huge total of 1 severe thunderstorm warning here, 0 enhanced risks (although there was one just to my south, same day as the severe warning), and 0 slight risks or higher so far in May (2 borderline days just to my south, but neither produced here). Still holding out hope for the end of the month but we're on a crazy inactive pace this year... There has never been a single May that I know of that didn't have at least 1 enhanced risk here (even 2018 and 2020 at least had 1) Maybe we can get a nice MCS season this year. I don't root for huge outbreaks but some slight risks and an occasional wind driven enhanced would be nice instead of a completely dead pattern... Everything has been either west, south, or east

the clock is ticking too... next week is looking pretty summer-lite from what I've seen

Yeah models have been pretty consistent on that. Looks like June is starting early this year. Hopefully we'll get some nice MCSs

The CFSv2 model has been going crazy lately for Late May & Early June . . .

2013 was mostly an inactive storm season for May until May 19th, 20th, & 31st . . .

(And today marks 8 years since the Shawnee EF4)

Iceresistance wrote:

Weather Dude wrote:

Brent wrote:
the clock is ticking too... next week is looking pretty summer-lite from what I've seen

Yeah models have been pretty consistent on that. Looks like June is starting early this year. Hopefully we'll get some nice MCSs

The CFSv2 model has been going crazy lately for Late May & Early June . . .

2013 was mostly an inactive storm season for May until May 19th, 20th, & 31st . . .

(And today marks 8 years since the Shawnee EF4)

There's been a ton of crazy long range runs this year and none of them have happened

12z GEFS is hinting something by the end of this month . . .

Iceresistance wrote:12z GEFS is hinting something by the end of this month . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_228.png

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_252.png

I think you're wish casting at this point... models often this time of year show favorable patterns for severe weather in the long range, but it doesn't mean much really until you're within the short range.As parameters are likely to change.Theirs a reason why the SPC focuses more on the1-3 Day forecast,than the extended...

wxman22 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:12z GEFS is hinting something by the end of this month . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_228.png

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_252.png

I think you're wish casting at this point... models often this time of year show favorable patterns for severe weather in the long range, but it doesn't mean much really until you're within the short range.As parameters are likely to change.Theirs a reason why the SPC focuses more on the 1-3 Day forecast,than the extended...

I don't normally see higher SCP without glitched portions on the GEFS this far out, it's been showing that for quite some time . . .

Iceresistance wrote:

wxman22 wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:12z GEFS is hinting something by the end of this month . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_228.png

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_meanscp_252.png

I think you're wish casting at this point... models often this time of year show favorable patterns for severe weather in the long range, but it doesn't mean much really until you're within the short range.As parameters are likely to change.Theirs a reason why the SPC focuses more on the 1-3 Day forecast,than the extended...

I don't normally see higher SCP without glitched portions on the GEFS this far out, it's been showing that for quite some time . . .

It's literally been showing good parameters for phantom systems in the long range the entire season... This is why we can't and I don't take long range models seriously

Weather Dude wrote:

Iceresistance wrote:

wxman22 wrote:
I think you're wish casting at this point... models often this time of year show favorable patterns for severe weather in the long range, but it doesn't mean much really until you're within the short range.As parameters are likely to change.Theirs a reason why the SPC focuses more on the 1-3 Day forecast,than the extended...

I don't normally see higher SCP without glitched portions on the GEFS this far out, it's been showing that for quite some time . . .

It's literally been showing good parameters for phantom systems in the long range the entire season... This is why we can't and I don't take long range models seriously

Lol they couldn't even predict rain this week

Some big anniversaries coming up in the next few days.
Tomorrow- 8 years since Moore EF5
Saturday- 10 years since Joplin EF5
Monday- 10 years since 5/24 outbreak

Also will officially be 8 years since the last EF5, although there certainly has been EF5-strength tors since then

Large tornado reported & confirmed on the ground in Minnesota Yeasterday . . .

6z GEFS & GFS seems to be on par with something near the end of this month, News 9 (KWTV) has also mentioned it . . .

GEFS




GFS

6th straight day of a marginal risk here. None of them have had good storms.

Except early morning Saturday but I didn't even get it since I was at work

Weather Dude wrote:6th straight day of a marginal risk here. None of them have had good storms.

Except early morning Saturday but I didn't even get it since I was at work

Been raining almost nonstop since around 6 AM in town . . .

The GEFS/GFS has been attempting to show a severe weather outbreak over Oklahoma in fantasy range for a stupid amount of runs at this point. If it ever advances in time beyond the 230/240hr marks, then you can start to investigate it more seriously.

More interesting is the hints that a severe weather outbreak could be on the way for the Mid-Ohio River Valley and parts of the Midwest sometime next week. Still more to be seen in terms of details and if it will even materialize at all, but worth keeping an eye on since that's in the mid-range.

Sunday has potential to be one of the bigger plains events of the year so far. Will be interesting to see what the CAMs show when they get in range...

I'm also getting a little more confident in an active week to close out May. I'm a little skeptical still considering how every single decent looking system in the mid range hasn't produced here in my area this year so far, but models have been pretty consistent so far on a potential multi-day event later next week. Still could change of course.

Should see decent setups the majority of the days for the rest of this month. I'm still skeptical of anything big for the eastern half of OK considering how the year has gone however I'm starting to get on board now that NWS Tulsa is mentioning severe potential. They're generally pretty spot on most of the time, including 4/9 which was our only event this year so far (was a general T-storm on SPC outlook all the way until the day of). They are mentioning Thurs 5/27 as the one to watch right now and the models agree so I'm setting that as a target date. I still can't fully trust it until it's 2-3 days out and even then can't really know for sure until the day of but it looks like we may finally get something this week.

Also a disclaimer: I root for storms but not huge outbreaks, so hopefully we won't see anything huge.

As far as tomorrow goes, I wouldn't be surprised to see a wind-driven enhanced risk. Should be mostly linear but anything that can stay discrete for a while will have a strong tornado threat.

EDIT: Yep enhanced risk it is.

Not a huge number of reports for today so far but a respectable amount considering it's still early in the season for the northern plains.


The rest of this week looks to remain active, especially Wed onward. Won't likely know how big each day's threat is until the day of due to model differences and morning convection from the previous day. NAM has an interesting look for Tues in NE OK but HRRR and SPC currently have the action out west. I gotta go with HRRR for now since it's been pretty good this year but I've seen crazy things happen here and since it's May I don't really want to discount the NAM solution completely although it looks unlikely for now. The Day 2 discussion should be fairly interesting though.

Thurs 5/27 looks like it has a chance to have the most potential out of the next several days but it's still a ways out and there will be a lot of different determining factors. I doubt SPC highlights it for Day 4 tomorrow since models differ although I wouldn't be surprised if they do. Looks to be an active week and a solid one for chasers. Hopefully any tors remain over the open fields.