Texas Spring 2022

[Cpv17]

Anyone buying?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQvA7nfXwAAyEtM?format=jpg&name=medium

Definitely not.

[Iceresistance]

Wind Advisory up for my area due to collapsing showers. Stupid wind! It blew my grandmother's car off the road earlier today.

[captainbarbossa19]

Anyone buying?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQvA7nfXwAAyEtM?format=jpg&name=medium

As much as I want to, probably not. We're already seeing model trends today back off on the projected rainfall totals early next week.

From this afternoon's NWS EWX AFD:

The troughing pattern should be able to pull a front into
our area Monday, but this is probably in reduced confidence versus
the previous day when the pattern aloft was slightly slower and more
amplified. Thus the day 5-7 forecast is in very low confidence, and
is likely to overstate the chance of much needed rain. Still there
remains a decent chance for a near widespread swath of storms to
announce the cold front, but the weaker amplitude trend of the upper
pattern and weaker cold front has this forecaster concerned the
models may trend drier with each run and leave the population feeling
cheated. This has been a La Nina cycle trend for the medium range
models for years, and it comes at a tough time--the growing season.

Personally, I do not give much weight at all to models lately. I received a lot more rain on day when it was not expected compared to when it was. Another thing to consider is model bias towards overextending patterns. When stuck in a wet or dry pattern, models do have a tendency to keep the pattern continuing. That is why I do not get excited much anymore about an upcoming wet or dry pattern. I also emphasize to others not to look at what a global model shows beyond 7 days. It is silly to say no rain or continuing rain for 14 days when on the very next run, it might show 10 inches or nothing at that range. Too much is uncertain.

[somethingfunny]

Anyone buying?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQvA7nfXwAAyEtM?format=jpg&name=medium

Absolutely. I've been expecting thunderstorms in DFW at 5pm on the 25th of April ever since I booked a flight three months ago.

[Ntxw]

Last week some of the models had some rainfall this week which has amounted to very little if any. Hopefully late this weekend provides some.

SOI spiked +27. April has been a persistent + regime.

[rwfromkansas]

The GFS and Euro both look good for DFW, but the latest GFS did push things a bit east, leaving western OK dry. Another few trends like that and it will be just far NE TX again, and I place my bets on that.

[Ntxw]

The GFS and Euro both look good for DFW, but the latest GFS did push things a bit east, leaving western OK dry. Another few trends like that and it will be just far NE TX again, and I place my bets on that.

At this point even ~0.50" I'd consider a win. I went back and looked at some of the wetter Springs like 2015, 2019 etc and every few days we had some measurable rainfall a week (0.3-1") and in between one or two would pop 1-3" of rain, those were the good days. Shows how the background state can influence things on a slower scale.

[jasons2k]

Not good..from Travis Herzog.

[Texoz]

Not good..from Travis Herzog.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220420/ccca3c497fdaec85071e4bf85c900210.jpg

The one positive from those images is that it appears Austin, SA and Houston have not been hit that hard yet, and theoretically won't draw down water reserves as fast as 2011. Also, hopefully, we haven't reached a negative feedback loop east of I-35 yet. Keeping fingers crossed that May brings relief, otherwise it's 5 months (June-Oct) of hoping for some tropical relief.

[captainbarbossa19]

Not good..from Travis Herzog.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220420/ccca3c497fdaec85071e4bf85c900210.jpg

The one positive from those images is that it appears Austin, SA and Houston have not been hit that hard yet, and theoretically won't draw down water reserves as fast as 2011. Also, hopefully, we haven't reached a negative feedback loop east of I-35 yet. Keeping fingers crossed that May brings relief, otherwise it's 5 months (June-Oct) of hoping for some tropical relief.

I agree. Drought in 2011 was much worse in central and eastern Texas. This could be to our benefit if we can start to get some rain going soon. We really need something to happen in May. Otherwise, I think the ridge may be too strong most of the time to allow much tropical moisture to penetrate during the summer.

[Ntxw]

The question we can ask for May is, what will drive the rainfall pattern? It's definitely not coming from the Pacific the Nina is strengthening and convection is being crushed across the EPAC tropics. The STJ has been MIA and no support for it.

The second way it can happen is for PVA (vorticity) to move further south than normal and stall often across our region with cutoff lows and draw up gulf moisture via blocking. That's harder to predict but are more a feature of warm ENSO. The -PDO with shorter wavelengths favor dry SW flow overall. In a +PDO the same southwest flow would draw up copious Pacific moisture, but the case now it's just warm and dry Pacific air as a result of the preconditioned PDO/Nina couplet.

Option 2 is what we can hope for and more likely to the rescue if the high latitude blocking can materialize quickly as option 1 is probably off the table.

[bubba hotep]

The atmosphere over DFW is jacked up! This is a very low chance but big problem day. One storm did try to come out of the CU field but died after moving eastward. Most likely that nothing fires but if one storm were to get going, oh man.

[Iceresistance]

The question we can ask for May is, what will drive the rainfall pattern? It's definitely not coming from the Pacific the Nina is strengthening and convection is being crushed across the EPAC tropics. The STJ has been MIA and no support for it.

The second way it can happen is for PVA (vorticity) to move further south than normal and stall often across our region with cutoff lows and draw up gulf moisture via blocking. That's harder to predict but are more a feature of warm ENSO. The -PDO with shorter wavelengths favor dry SW flow overall. In a +PDO the same southwest flow would draw up copious Pacific moisture, but the case now it's just warm and dry Pacific air as a result of the preconditioned PDO/Nina couplet.

Option 2 is what we can hope for and more likely to the rescue if the high latitude blocking can materialize quickly as option 1 is probably off the table.

Could the NAO do the trick? It's very positive right now, but it's posed to become negative. And stay that way to start May.

[Ntxw]

The question we can ask for May is, what will drive the rainfall pattern? It's definitely not coming from the Pacific the Nina is strengthening and convection is being crushed across the EPAC tropics. The STJ has been MIA and no support for it.

The second way it can happen is for PVA (vorticity) to move further south than normal and stall often across our region with cutoff lows and draw up gulf moisture via blocking. That's harder to predict but are more a feature of warm ENSO. The -PDO with shorter wavelengths favor dry SW flow overall. In a +PDO the same southwest flow would draw up copious Pacific moisture, but the case now it's just warm and dry Pacific air as a result of the preconditioned PDO/Nina couplet.

Option 2 is what we can hope for and more likely to the rescue if the high latitude blocking can materialize quickly as option 1 is probably off the table.

Could the NAO do the trick? It's very positive right now, but it's posed to become negative. And stay that way to start May.

A -AO/-NAO sustained would help for sure.

[Iceresistance]

The question we can ask for May is, what will drive the rainfall pattern? It's definitely not coming from the Pacific the Nina is strengthening and convection is being crushed across the EPAC tropics. The STJ has been MIA and no support for it.

The second way it can happen is for PVA (vorticity) to move further south than normal and stall often across our region with cutoff lows and draw up gulf moisture via blocking. That's harder to predict but are more a feature of warm ENSO. The -PDO with shorter wavelengths favor dry SW flow overall. In a +PDO the same southwest flow would draw up copious Pacific moisture, but the case now it's just warm and dry Pacific air as a result of the preconditioned PDO/Nina couplet.

Option 2 is what we can hope for and more likely to the rescue if the high latitude blocking can materialize quickly as option 1 is probably off the table.

Could the NAO do the trick? It's very positive right now, but it's posed to become negative. And stay that way to start May.

A -AO/-NAO sustained would help for sure.

Forgot to mention that the GoM is above normal in temperatures, this could have high implications for the Summer Popcorn (Yes, my family calls that on pop-up storms ) Storm season.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Could the NAO do the trick? It's very positive right now, but it's posed to become negative. And stay that way to start May.

A -AO/-NAO sustained would help for sure.

Forgot to mention that the GoM is above normal in temperatures, this could have high implications for the Summer Popcorn (Yes, my family calls that on pop-up storms ) Storm season.

As long as the heights remain relatively normal or low over Texas, then yes. La nina typically has higher heights over Texas in summer months though.

[Ntxw]

In a surprising twist the late weekend (Sun-Mon) qpf may actually be higher in the west and northwestern parts of DFW. Maybe 0.75"-1.5" for some, locally a bit higher in spots where the boundary slows.

Not a lot though to the south but maybe some will get in on it.

Dewpoints are starting in the high 60s and 70s, remains elevated for a few days which will help the system later to overperform rather than under.

[Iceresistance]

It feels like June outside, not April.

[South Texas Storms]

In a surprising twist the late weekend (Sun-Mon) qpf may actually be higher in the west and northwestern parts of DFW. Maybe 0.75"-1.5" for some, locally a bit higher in spots where the boundary slows.

Not a lot though to the south but maybe some will get in on it.

Dewpoints are starting in the high 60s and 70s, remains elevated for a few days which will help the system later to overperform rather than under.

Yeah we finally have a legit widespread rainfall chance to get excited about across much of the state! Hopefully most of us can cash in Sunday into Monday.

I was talking to my long-range coworker a few days ago and most of his analog years point to a wet May across a large part of TX. Let's hope that verifies because I'm afraid it's going to be a long, hot, and brutal summer if we remain dry over the next month.

[HockeyTx82]

In a surprising twist the late weekend (Sun-Mon) qpf may actually be higher in the west and northwestern parts of DFW. Maybe 0.75"-1.5" for some, locally a bit higher in spots where the boundary slows.

Not a lot though to the south but maybe some will get in on it.

Dewpoints are starting in the high 60s and 70s, remains elevated for a few days which will help the system later to overperform rather than under.

Yeah we finally have a legit widespread rainfall chance to get excited about across much of the state! Hopefully most of us can cash in Sunday into Monday.

I was talking to my long-range coworker a few days ago and most of his analog years point to a wet May across a large part of TX. Let's hope that verifies because I'm afraid it's going to be a long, hot, and brutal summer if we remain dry over the next month.

Speaking of dry hot and brutal summer, where's wxman57 been? Don't think I've seen him around lately.