STORM2K

Iceresistance wrote:Next week is looking very unsettled, it's a no wonder why the CPC has taken note of the heavy rainfall potential for Texas.

I noticed that too. The EPS and GEFS look quite wet, especially for SE TX.

SoupBone wrote:

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:

South Texas Storms wrote:Horrible to see what happened in Dallas last night. Hope everyone stayed safe up there.

The SA Airport rain gauge is cursed this year. Only 0.25 inch today. Depressing.

It’s almost like we have a dome around us. Sucks.

Can anyone seriously explain this? It doesn't make sense to me at all. It does look like we have something stopping it.

Yesterday was a prime example of what's been happening over the last few weeks. Period of intense convection develops north and NW of SAT. As the storms "advance" south and southeast, the developing outflow boundaries starts cutting off moisture/instability/inflow. Storms are highly sheared out from north to south and eventually dissipate just as they arrive to SAT. Then another line forms on the downstream side of the outflow and cuts it all off, leading to very low QPF over SAT and lots of rain to our north, west, east, and south.

At this point it's a joke. Bust after bust after bust here. Might as well just go ahead and break the all-time record and stay under 10" for the year at SAT airport.

Edwards Limestone wrote:

SoupBone wrote:

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:It’s almost like we have a dome around us. Sucks.

Can anyone seriously explain this? It doesn't make sense to me at all. It does look like we have something stopping it.

Yesterday was a prime example of what's been happening over the last few weeks. Period of intense convection develops north and NW of SAT. As the storms "advance" south and southeast, the developing outflow boundaries starts cutting off moisture/instability/inflow. Storms are highly sheared out from north to south and eventually dissipate just as they arrive to SAT. Then another line forms on the downstream side of the outflow and cuts it all off, leading to very low QPF over SAT and lots of rain to our north, west, east, and south.

At this point it's a joke. Bust after bust after bust here. Might as well just go ahead and break the all-time record and stay under 10" for the year at SAT airport.

Very good chances of rain in your area over the next couple weeks per the CPC. Fingers crossed for you guys. I’m only at 13” for the year myself and normally around 30” by this time of the year. Outflow has killed many areas of Texas this year. I’ve had them screw me over multiple times myself. Trust me, you’re not the only one dealing with that. Seems like a statewide issue this year.

South Texas Storms wrote:Horrible to see what happened in Dallas last night. Hope everyone stayed safe up there.

The SA Airport rain gauge is cursed this year. Only 0.25 inch today. Depressing.

Yeah, my dad (in North SA) got 0.75". He was satisfied, considering most he's had in 6 months. My brother (also in North SA) only got 0.23". He said he guesses he has to wait his turn. Bummer.

Well damn the 12z ICON and GFS sure do look interesting.

Cpv17 wrote:Well damn the 12z ICON and GFS sure do look interesting.

It's about time hurricane season started waking up

NWS-Fort Worth got 12.68 inches of rain in under 48 hours.

Well somebody (or lots of somebodys) was dead wrong for North Houston-Woodlands-Conroe. All quiet here. We were supposed to be under a flood watch today and haven’t seen a drop.

Haven’t seen a miss this bad in a long time. What gives?

Nederlander wrote:Well somebody (or lots of somebodys) was dead wrong for North Houston-Woodlands-Conroe. All quiet here. We were supposed to be under a flood watch today and haven’t seen a drop.

Haven’t seen a miss this bad in a long time. What gives?

I suppose that may be the counter effect on what happened in Dallas?

We got screwed up here too on the other side of Dallas but ours had been trending the wrong way in the final days... It wasn't that shocking. Tulsa has still only had 0.22" this entire month

I'll believe it when I see it on next week being stormy after that for sure

bubba hotep wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa39mLZXwAE5s4K?format=jpg&name=medium

Amazing isn't it. A week ago the 100s would not stop. Now here we are with the most rain in DFW recorded history for the normally dry August. And more to come before September 1.

Glad we got the record! Clouds and light rain showers have kept temps in the 80s. 70 dews have made it very humid but will take this over 105 any day. I still don't get the complaints from people living in Birmingham or Atlanta it's too hot. If this is what most of the summer is for them every year ain't nothin .

I don't know what the PDO number for August will be but July was very negative, however the recent week(s) the NPAC has taken on more +PDO look.

Here's a visual of the SSTa. June vs recent. A believer the SOI and PDO foretells our rainy patterns.

Cold tongue along North America's west coast into -ENSO.



Warm tongue has developed along NA's west coast cutting off the -ENSO linkage.

Cpv17 wrote:Well damn the 12z ICON and GFS sure do look interesting.

Can you posts any charts/images or give a short description?

Texoz wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:Well damn the 12z ICON and GFS sure do look interesting.

Can you posts any charts/images or give a short description?

Click this link.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... &start=160

Ntxw wrote:Here's a visual of the SSTa. June vs recent. A believer the SOI and PDO foretells our rainy patterns.

Cold tongue along North America's west coast into -ENSO.

https://i.imgur.com/E5d0A4Z.png

Warm tongue has developed along NA's west coast cutting off the -ENSO linkage.

https://i.imgur.com/s5WNe5L.png

These SSTs could do us some good this fall and winter.

So looking out, aside from a few days before, when might some Tropical Weather get picked up in the long range with viability?

Family is asking and looking at a trip to Florida mid September.

HockeyTx82 wrote:So looking out, aside from a few days before, when might some Tropical Weather get picked up in the long range with viability?

Family is asking and looking at a trip to Florida mid September.

I'd rather not go, lots of thunderstorm activity and it's the peak of Hurricane Season. I went there in Early May (Left in Late April), and the humidity is CRAZY! I only had some storms developing, but nothing too crazy with the exception of one that was SCARY!

HockeyTx82 wrote:So looking out, aside from a few days before, when might some Tropical Weather get picked up in the long range with viability?

Family is asking and looking at a trip to Florida mid September.

Probably won't know til a week out or even less the way this season is going