Texas Fall 2022

[Iceresistance]

Looks like all the models are trending toward the GFS. The last holdout is the Euro, but the 06z was a big step towards the GFS. We could be looking at a very dynamic system moving across Texas later this week. Too bad all the cold air is gone.

That is actually a good thing considering the Thanksgiving and Black Friday travel potential.

[Iceresistance]

The GEFS has the MJO going into null after Phase 7, only to return back to Phase 6. Does that mean that the cold air gets launched towards us when it reaches the null phase?

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1594691097468424192

[Cpv17]

:double:
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1594691097468424192?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Not sure if this is a good look for us? Looks to favor a +PNA?

[Iceresistance]

:double:
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1594691097468424192?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Not sure if this is a good look for us? Looks to favor a +PNA?

The PNA currently appears to be negative to start December, we could have a shot for a big snowfall event if the PNA turns neutral at the right time with a storm system.

[bubba hotep]

No backing down on the 12z GFS. Wow, that would be a dream scenario if we had the current cold air over the top of that system!

[Iceresistance]

Holy -EPO! It strikes again in Early December on the 12z GFS!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-on-the-first-Weekend-of-December.png

[South Texas Storms]

With periods of steady rain in SA over the past few days, we have officially avoided the dubious driest year on record at the airport. #smallvictories

[Cpv17]

Holy -EPO! It strikes again in Early December on the 12z GFS!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-on-the-first-Weekend-of-December.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-on-the-first-Weekend-of-December.png

Woah! Awesome

[bubba hotep]

No backing down on the 12z GFS. Wow, that would be a dream scenario if we had the current cold air over the top of that system!

12z Euro has caved to the GFS. If this holds, what a huge win for the GFS given that this a very tricky phasing setup and the GFS has been locked in. Big 12hr change on the Euro:

00z



vs.

12z

[HockeyTx82]

No backing down on the 12z GFS. Wow, that would be a dream scenario if we had the current cold air over the top of that system!

12z Euro has caved to the GFS. If this holds, what a huge win for the GFS given that this a very tricky phasing setup and the GFS has been locked in. Big 12hr change on the Euro:

00z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022112100/ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_37.png

vs.

12z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2022112112/ec-fast_z500aNorm_us_5.png

What are we talking about and when might it happen?

[Iceresistance]

No backing down on the 12z GFS. Wow, that would be a dream scenario if we had the current cold air over the top of that system!

12z Euro has caved to the GFS. If this holds, what a huge win for the GFS given that this a very tricky phasing setup and the GFS has been locked in. Big 12hr change on the Euro:

00z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022112100/ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_37.png

vs.

12z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2022112112/ec-fast_z500aNorm_us_5.png

What are we talking about and when might it happen?

Storm system with rain all across the Southern Plains and into the Deep South and maybe snow in Western Texas, it will start at around Thanksgiving, then end at the last weekend of November. 1-3 inches of rain is possible over a wide area in Texas and 1-2 inches for most of Oklahoma.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:double:
[url]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1594691097468424192?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5 Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet[/url]

I think -NAO paired with blocking towards Alaska is a good look for us, (Feb 2021), but just a -NAO doesnt mean much for Texas.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1594744061902168066

[TropicalTundra]

No backing down on the 12z GFS. Wow, that would be a dream scenario if we had the current cold air over the top of that system!

12z Euro has caved to the GFS. If this holds, what a huge win for the GFS given that this a very tricky phasing setup and the GFS has been locked in. Big 12hr change on the Euro:

00z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022112100/ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_37.png

vs.

12z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2022112112/ec-fast_z500aNorm_us_5.png

12z Euro has almost 2 1/2 - almost 3 feet of snow in the Panhandle. Would be all-state snowfall record in amount + rates and most likely be a threat/disaster scenario

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1594744061902168066?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Not bad but needs to be more blocking over Alaska.

[Cpv17]

No backing down on the 12z GFS. Wow, that would be a dream scenario if we had the current cold air over the top of that system!

12z Euro has caved to the GFS. If this holds, what a huge win for the GFS given that this a very tricky phasing setup and the GFS has been locked in. Big 12hr change on the Euro:

00z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022112100/ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_37.png

vs.

12z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2022112112/ec-fast_z500aNorm_us_5.png

The Euro had it last week though but then dropped it. The GFS only had it on a couple runs last week..so which model actually wins? The Euro saw it first..

[Brent]

With these models all these forecasts I've seen about a sunny nice weekend are gonna age well

TWC app now has me with rain Thanksgiving through Saturday and temps below 60

[Iceresistance]

With these models all these forecasts I've seen about a sunny nice weekend are gonna age well

TWC app now has me with rain Thanksgiving through Saturday and temps below 60

WPC also had a huge uptick in the QPF potential, now up to 1-2 inches instead maybe a .1 at best!

NWS-Norman has a chance of rain in their forecast area (including me) at the same time, except it starts on Wednesday.

[Iceresistance]

At the end of the run (11/21/2022 12z GFS), but you know, a man can dream.


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-for-500mb-anomalies.png