STORM2K

gpsnowman wrote:

Ntxw wrote:FYI 2022/2023 for DFW is now the two back to back arguably hottest summers in regards to 100F or more readings. 47/46 days currently couplet, which no other consecutive years can match.

Two rotten summers in a row. And we thought 98-99 was bad. Another streak of 100s again starting Friday will only add to the totals. Pure hell.

The heat durations, when they occur, have gotten worse every decade that pops up. 2030s heat wave couplets in a severe -PDO will likely surpass this one.

For shorter intensity 1998-2000 was probably a stronger event pattern wise. But not match the duration.

rwfromkansas wrote:Well, may get to 100 again after all. It has been pushing back north on the NAM and HRRR, but tomorrow and the next few days still look good. At least it's not 110 today in DFW...

Just saw the Larry Cosgrove newsletter.

The seasonal forecasts are grim through November temperature-wise, but at least some hope of rain. Finally, El Nino seems to kick in during December.

Mid September, then October, now November?! This is beyond ridiculous at this point.

ISTG that the Cockroach Death Ridge is coming back with a vengeance!


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgWzY.png

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Well, may get to 100 again after all. It has been pushing back north on the NAM and HRRR, but tomorrow and the next few days still look good. At least it's not 110 today in DFW...

Just saw the Larry Cosgrove newsletter.

The seasonal forecasts are grim through November temperature-wise, but at least some hope of rain. Finally, El Nino seems to kick in during December.

Mid September, then October, now November?! This is beyond ridiculous at this point.

Not buying that. Should see change for sure by November. Models will have heat bias due to the current stagnant pattern.

Iceresistance wrote:ISTG that the Cockroach Death Ridge is coming back with a vengeance!

Thanks.

Ntxw wrote:FYI 2022/2023 for DFW is now the two back to back arguably hottest summers in regards to 100F or more readings. 47/46 days currently couplet, which no other consecutive years can match.

2012: 34
2011: 71

2011: 71
2010: 29

tajmahal wrote:

Ntxw wrote:FYI 2022/2023 for DFW is now the two back to back arguably hottest summers in regards to 100F or more readings. 47/46 days currently couplet, which no other consecutive years can match.

2012: 34
2011: 71

2011: 71
2010: 29

In terms of ranks. 2012and 2010 isn't top 10. Thanks for the correction though, appreciate your diligence.

Ntxw wrote:

tajmahal wrote:

Ntxw wrote:FYI 2022/2023 for DFW is now the two back to back arguably hottest summers in regards to 100F or more readings. 47/46 days currently couplet, which no other consecutive years can match.

2012: 34
2011: 71

2011: 71
2010: 29

In terms of ranks. 2012and 2010 isn't top 10. Thanks for the correction though, appreciate your diligence.

https://i.imgur.com/OSSBGZx.png

I didn't say the individual years were top 10.

tajmahal wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

tajmahal wrote:
2012: 34
2011: 71

2011: 71
2010: 29

In terms of ranks. 2012and 2010 isn't top 10. Thanks for the correction though, appreciate your diligence.

https://i.imgur.com/OSSBGZx.png

I didn't say the individual years were top 10.

Probably would help if I noted the source .

12z GFS finally breaks the heat and drought with a large tropical system into Texas at the end of the run. Translation - more heat for as far as the eye can see lol

Yukon Cornelius wrote:

rwfromkansas wrote:Well, may get to 100 again after all. It has been pushing back north on the NAM and HRRR, but tomorrow and the next few days still look good. At least it's not 110 today in DFW...

Just saw the Larry Cosgrove newsletter.

The seasonal forecasts are grim through November temperature-wise, but at least some hope of rain. Finally, El Nino seems to kick in during December.

Mid September, then October, now November?! This is beyond ridiculous at this point.

Well to be clear they show more precip, just above normal temps. I’m sure the 100s will be done by around the end of September surely.

DFW…. While the extreme heat builds back later in the week, lows are forecast to stay below 80. Climo slowly fighting back.

The extreme hi mins have been one of the really remarkable things this summer, now along with the back to back 110s this weekend which of course is rarified air.

I was looking at the 0z GFS last night and while it's starting to hint at snow in the mountains out west it had temps still over 100 in Chicago on September 11th. Like how??? That would be way later than their latest 100 on record. Its completely ridiculous

And yes its going to be a lot better the next few days here but I'm still seeing a stretch of 100s to open September

Brent wrote:I was looking at the 0z GFS last night and while it's starting to hint at snow in the mountains out west it had temps still over 100 in Chicago on September 11th. Like how??? That would be way later than their latest 100 on record. Its completely ridiculous

And yes its going to be a lot better the next few days here but I'm still seeing a stretch of 100s to open September

The Rangers are playing in Minneapolis this afternoon so I checked out the forecast up there. At the turn of the month the highs are forecasted to be in the upper 80s and low 90s for several days. Average high that time of year is 77/76. It's hot everywhere.

Brent wrote:I was looking at the 0z GFS last night and while it's starting to hint at snow in the mountains out west it had temps still over 100 in Chicago on September 11th. Like how??? That would be way later than their latest 100 on record. Its completely ridiculous

And yes its going to be a lot better the next few days here but I'm still seeing a stretch of 100s to open September

It's been one heck of a ridge, persistent. 2000 and 2006 were the only others I could find digging out in terms of real estate. Even 2011 (August) was localized to TX.









Maybe a theory, along with the PDO pumping up the ridge (west coast low), is that the super hot Atlantic Ocean/Gulf extends these ridges too. It's certainly low enough in latitude to make that connection.

Here is a composite of two modern years for DFW that was cool August. I guess that 500mb notch near/off California is really important.

Thunderstorms developing west of DFW

This is from NWS Houston/Galveston morning forecast discussion...."At the upper levels, long-range models are continuing to hint at the
development of an elongated mid/upper trof axis running roughly west
to east along the TX-SW LA coasts."....I have read a few other forecast discussions from Brownsville to New Orleans, all basically referring to a elongated trough, or a closed low. My question is, does this have tropical development implications? And will this provide us some much needed relief from the hear and drought? My outdoor thermometer bit the dust, it's stuck on 105° forever....

Brent wrote:I was looking at the 0z GFS last night and while it's starting to hint at snow in the mountains out west it had temps still over 100 in Chicago on September 11th. Like how??? That would be way later than their latest 100 on record. Its completely ridiculous

September 7, 1960 & 1939 are Chicago's latest 100° temperatures.

Supposed to be raining but since it's 110 nothing is falling.

Jesus Christ.

Iceresistance wrote:Thunderstorms developing west of DFW

There are no such things in Texas as thunderstorms Ice....how's your weather?