NDG wrote:For now a progressive pattern across the US will not let the core of the Arctic air come down to the FL Peninsula, at least through the next 7-10 days. What a waste of a -NAO for the cold wx lovers down here
Well, we do not have +PNA in place currently to coincide with the negative NAO. That is a chief element also needed to help funnel colder air our way. Latest forecast has the NAO going back to at least neutral by the first of December. We will see if that trend will be brief. There continues to be indications, if they are close to being accurate, in long range models of significant blocking over Greenland and over Eastern Canada as we get deeper into December. This generally is a pretty good harbinger of a negative NAO eventually establishing itself down the road.
So, for the time being, great news for the year-round warm weather folks on the thread for the next 7 to 10 days at least.
The teleconnections have yet to come together for our corner of the world for significant cold spells.
Otherwise, same ole song for us for now.
Happy and safe Thanksgiving everyone!!
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:49 pm
by psyclone
we're getting that crazy good southern California weather that traditionally frequents Florida during the cold season. Bright sun, a fresh breeze and 70 here right now. It's just as good as it gets. We're going to best our friends in the northeast by about 50 degrees on Thanksgiving and I have little doubt folks from up that way that decided to head down here for the holiday are feeling like they got their money's worth.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 7:18 am
by TheStormExpert
Welp, what was originally looking like would be a multi-day period of low temperatures in the mid-upper 50’s and lower 60’s is now just going to be one night of low temperatures in the upper 50’s.
Like NDG said, what a waste of -NAO! Any chance this progressive pattern is all in thanks to the developing El Niño?
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 10:35 am
by NDG
EPO is going back to negative by early December but by the then NAO is forecasted to at least be out of the negative territory, PNA is forecasted to be at least neutral by then. This means that the core of the cold air will be concentratred across the central and western US by early Dec.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 10:56 am
by boca
So much for cooler weather in South Florida,I’m still hoping it changes soon I’m tired of 80s.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:07 am
by TheStormExpert
The GFS is trending colder with Tuesday’s front. Looks like here where I’m at we may be able to squeeze out two nights in the 50’s after all.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:08 am
by TheStormExpert
NDG wrote:EPO is going back to negative by early December but by the then NAO is forecasted to at least be out of the negative territory, PNA is forecasted to be at least neutral by then. This means that the core of the cold air will be concentratred across the central and western US by early Dec.
May I ask where you get this graphic from, I would like to have the link if possible.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:47 am
by NDG
TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:EPO is going back to negative by early December but by the then NAO is forecasted to at least be out of the negative territory, PNA is forecasted to be at least neutral by then. This means that the core of the cold air will be concentratred across the central and western US by early Dec.
my point and click shows some legit hoodie/jacket/fireplace/comfort food weather en route with low to mid 60's highs and 40's for lows. definitely cooler than I prefer but not bad and then moderation back to slightly above normal by next weekend. Overall pretty good stuff.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 1:03 pm
by gatorcane
The GFS continues to trend colder, about 1F colder than the previous run:
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 2:53 pm
by northjaxpro
Latest MOS guidance has 36 degrees for Jax on Wednesday morning.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 3:54 pm
by MetroMike
Latest CPC 6-10 day outlook has 60 to 70% chance of above normal temps for the S.E. December 01- 05. We shall see if this pans out.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 6:27 pm
by psyclone
I'm a believer in those above normal anomalies. looks like we'll be basking in 80 degree warmth by next weekend here in the bay area after a very respectable cool snap this week with highs in the low 60's...definitely the coolest weather so far this season but it looks like the chill lasts about 3 days and 4 nights before we rebound.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 7:41 pm
by gatorcane
The FV3 GFS showing another big shot of cold air in about 10 days...
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:21 pm
by northjaxpro
gatorcane wrote:The FV3 GFS showing another big shot of cold air in about 10 days...
Yep. I was on the Texas Fall thread talking about this as well a short time ago. This may be an indication of +PNA possibly taking shape by the end of the first week of December.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:14 am
by northjaxpro
Rain and possibly a few storms later today with the approach of the cold front, which will pass through the rest of the peninsula by late tonight as the upper trough pushes through the Eastern CONUS and ushers in the best cold shot of air into this region so far this season.
Colder trend continues as the NWS Jax now calling for 32 degrees for Wednesday morning and. 34 degrees Thursday morning. Frost could be possible Thursday morning as the wind becomes light to calm as center of High Pressure axis is forecast to be over the western panhandle area by that time.
Looks likely most of interior North Florida will have the first freeze of this Fall/Winter season this week.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:23 am
by TheStormExpert
A little humor by Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan just showing how rare it is to get a decent successful front to pass through the entire state even with a -NAO and +PNA.
temps are in the mid 40's in the western panhandle right now while peninsular florida is 80+. The low 60's high expected here on Wednesday is about 15 degrees below normal and would be cool by even mid winter standards. This is the real deal for cool weather fans.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 12:49 pm
by gatorcane
The GFS has gone slightly colder for lows in 48 hours and is showing another potent blast into Florida in the long-range at 288 hours with 30s down into SW Florida.
Re: Florida Weather
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 1:10 pm
by northjaxpro
Radar showing good supply of Gulf moisture with a round of showers and thunderstorms traversing along the pre-frontal trough across North Florida, with a very good batch of heavy rain and storms exiting the Suwanee River Valley and now approaching the Lake City area currently. This will move into the rest of Northeast Florida this afternoon. There is another healthy batch of rain and storms from the Big Bend area extending south into the GOM this hour. The overall area of rain will continue propagating southeastward over the rest of the state the rest of the day into tonight. Rain ends quickly and clearing and colder the next couple of days as the strong cold front trailing just behind currently will clear the peninsula later tonight.
I'm a believer in those above normal anomalies. looks like we'll be basking in 80 degree warmth by next weekend here in the bay area after a very respectable cool snap this week with highs in the low 60's...definitely the coolest weather so far this season but it looks like the chill lasts about 3 days and 4 nights before we rebound.
