Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Yes, I have been talking about that cut-off mid to upper level feature for the past couple of days concerning Monday through Tuesday of next week in.the Deep South thread.

Good analysis above NDG regarding that feature and its prospective impacts on the peninsula for early next week


Also, latest MOS has NWS Jax getting to 33 degrees for tomorrow morning. The interor, colder areas across NE Florida may dip to freezing mark after all, along with patchy frost if the wind becomes light.

[StormingB81]

They're starting to hint at severe weather and a possible tornado threat on Sunday here

[SFLcane]

NDG from the looks of your last post it kinda looks like most of the real cold air will bypass the state though. Even though we saw some chilly weather with some 40's last week we have yet to see a REAL cold plunge of artic airmass down the florida peninsula. Thoughts? Hopefully xmas actually feels like xmas for a change instead of summer

[TheStormExpert]

NDG from the looks of your last post it kinda looks like most of the real cold air will bypass the state though. Even though we saw some chilly weather with some 40's last week we have yet to see a REAL cold plunge of artic airmass down the florida peninsula. Thoughts? Hopefully xmas actually feels like xmas for a change instead of summer

I like the cooler weather, but I’m ok with having yet to see any real arctic cold plunge down the spine of the peninsula.

[boca]

As long as the NAO is positive we will only get glancing blows with cold fronts.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF looks even colder for Florida with the active subtropical jet in a classic Niño pattern

[psyclone]

Long range looks to be tilting warmer per the CPC and we're in the time of the year where normal to a touch above normal = very nice temps

[boca]

I love cold weather but the forecast that the Euro shows for Dec 11th will not materialize to that extent. Mid 50s for lows and highs in low 70s. Again NAO is positive. I would believe that graphic that gatorcane posted if the NAO was negative.

[gatorcane]

I love cold weather but the forecast that the Euro shows for Dec 11th will not materialize to that extent. Mid 50s for lows and highs in low 70s. Again NAO is positive. I would believe that graphic that gatorcane posted if the NAO was negative.

The GFS agrees with the Euro on below normal temps:

[boca]

That graphic equates to what temperature on Dec 11th because the weather service has 70 got a high and 53 for a low.

[boca]

That graphic equates to what temperature on Dec 11th because the weather service has 70 for a high and 53 for a low.

[northjaxpro]

Currently at 34.3 degrees, just above freezing thus far. High cirrus clouds streaming in on the subtropical jet once againlikely saved us from reaching the freeze mark It will be a close call this morning. There is a pretty good frost scattered around the yard this morning though.

Wet, wet weather and plenty of it on the way across North and Central Florida especially Saturday into Sunday as the very potent shortwave moves. through the region. Heavy rain potential in Northeast Florida especially.

El Nino pattern definitely kicking into gear.The Monday-Wednesday period in all likelihood will be well below normal over the peninsula as a very potent Upper Low moves across the Deep South region during this time period. This same feature is contributing to produce a huge winter storm to our north across North Carolina into early next week. I mention this because a fresh snowpack just to our north will keep this airmass from moderating fast.

I definitely see the potential of a freeze across North Florida next week, especially by Wednesday morning, keeping all I mentioned in perspective.

[SFLcane]

Long range looks to be tilting warmer per the CPC and we're in the time of the year where normal to a touch above normal = very nice temps

Um noooooo...how about it about it actually feels like the holidays in SFL for a change instead of summertime.

[NDG]

Low 40s in my neighborhood this morning, no wonder people are falling sick with these temp extremes in just a few days, our bodys are having a hard time adjusting.
Back to near 80 Sat & Sun then back to the low 40s for lows early next week

[gatorcane]

That graphic equates to what temperature on Dec 11th because the weather service has 70 for a high and 53 for a low.

You can use this link:
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/fl ... 1200z.html

Seems that lately the the NWS has had to lower temps as we get closer to the event suggesting models might be underestimating the cold.

[TheStormExpert]

Even with a +NAO we were able to bottom out at 51º this morning here in Palm Beach Gardens, impressive!

Not sure what to think about next weeks front as the NAO will be on the downtrend heading back negative after briefly spiking positive in the next few days. Meanwhile the PNA will be positive again and the EPO will go back positive meaning a likely less progressive pattern, this all along with a snowpack in North Carolina should at least allow overnight temperatures to be at least slightly cooler than this mornings low temperatures next Tuesday or Wednesday mornings.

[boca]

It went down to 51 here in Boca Raton and the 40 degree ups and downs got me sick. On Monday my car read 91and this morning 51. I agree that next Tues/Wed will be colder than this morning.I’m hoping we can get rain out of one of these cold fronts.

[TheStormExpert]

It went down to 51 here in Boca Raton and the 40 degree ups and downs got me sick. On Monday my car read 91and this morning 51. I agree that next Tues/Wed will be colder than this morning.I’m hoping we can get rain out of one of these cold fronts.

Definitely agree, these wild and abrupt temperature swings caused me to start having a strange and fortunately brief cough yesterday afternoon.

[gatorcane]

12Z guidance continues to come in pretty cold for the next front:

[northjaxpro]

The models imo will continue to trend colder for the peninsula in the short term(next 5-7 days) as we will have quite a drastic drop in 500 mb heights due to a very potent Mid-Upper Low pivoting through the Deep South and Southeast U.S. on Monday -Wednesday. Also, in addition, a fresh snow and ice pack from a powerful winter storm, which will impact primarily North Carolina late this weekend into early next week, will keep the next cold airmass from moderating quickly for our region. I am confident about this.

Monday really looks to be a cold, overcast, breezy day here in Jax as wraparound moisture from the aforementioned feature will likely be in this area.

I think a freeze will be quite probable for my area on Wednesday morning and possibly Thursday morning as well. The potent Upper Low will finally move off away from the Southeast U.S. Atlantic coast by Tuesday afternoon, clearing the skies, but strong cold air advection and brisk, windy conditions for the entire peninsula, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

I don't see moderation of temperatures in earnest until Thursday of next week peninsula-wide.