STORM2K

It's going to get chilly again after this weekend system but nothing crazy...probably very similar to the last 2 cool shots which were pretty nice...Longer term we're likely to moderate as the source regions for cold up north are moderating.

SFLcane wrote:

psyclone wrote:Long range looks to be tilting warmer per the CPC and we're in the time of the year where normal to a touch above normal = very nice temps

Um noooooo...how about it about it actually feels like the holidays in SFL for a change instead of summertime.

No soup for you! CPC shows normalish temps and we've had some good cool shots so far so that's a significant deviation from the last few years

psyclone wrote:

SFLcane wrote:

psyclone wrote:Long range looks to be tilting warmer per the CPC and we're in the time of the year where normal to a touch above normal = very nice temps

Um noooooo...how about it about it actually feels like the holidays in SFL for a change instead of summertime.

No soup for you! CPC shows normalish temps and we've had some good cool shots so far so that's a significant deviation from the last few years

Yea always at the wrong time with these cool shots.

psyclone wrote:It's going to get chilly again after this weekend system but nothing crazy...probably very similar to the last 2 cool shots which were pretty nice...Longer term we're likely to moderate as the source regions for cold up north are moderating.

Yeah, definitely not record or very substantial cold, the models are certainly not suggesting that, but quite a bit below normal through the middle of next week.

northjaxpro wrote:

psyclone wrote:It's going to get chilly again after this weekend system but nothing crazy...probably very similar to the last 2 cool shots which were pretty nice...Longer term we're likely to moderate as the source regions for cold up north are moderating.

Yeah, definitely not record cold, the models are certainly not suggesting that, but quite a bit below normal through the middle of next week.

My current NWS forecast shows 3 sub 70 highs next week so that's certainly attention getting and will represent another 3 solidly below normal days. We've had a pretty decent number of below normal days here recently so this Winter is definitely starting off differently than the last few and we're light years from the November and December torch fests of '15 and '16

This, Psyclone I definitely agree with you! It finally is feeling like the holidays for a change. We have only this time of year to get a few cold snaps, as long as it does not get brutally cold, I'm good .. I will gladly enjoy this over the ridiculous record warm Novembers and Decembers we have had the past couple of years for sure.

And the roller coaster ride continues, highs near 80 this weekend across my area back down to highs only the lower 60s early next week to back up to near 80 later in the week.

Yeah, this progressive El Nino pattern will keep us on a roller coaster ride for the forseeable future indeed.

A parade of potent shortwaves traversing along the southern jet stream will continue to impact us.. Heavy rain with this incoming shortwave here beginning late Saturday and continuing through most of Sunday. Forecast up to 3 inches of rain possble across Northeast Florida.

Below normal temps beginning early next and continuing through Wednesday. We will see another warm-up beginning Thursday. The next shortwave will come through the Southeast U.S. next weekend (Dec 15-16)

You guys up in north central florida get all the good weather and somewhat cold. Down here we get maybe a little below normal with a chance of a storm which really never materializes. According to NWS not much change in temp with a chance of a storm on Sunday but at least it feels nice and cool.

Seems that with this Nino pattern and active subtropical jet, might see a possibility of some snow flurries (or at least some sleet) for Northern Florida and maybe down into Central Florida at some point this winter if we can get some really cold air to be in place at the same time one of these subtropical jet systems is in the vicinity.

We can’t seem to get rain in our part of the state it just dries up once it gets passed lake O.

Definitely could use the rain as we are currently under a Moderate Drought here in NE Palm Beach County. The Subtropical Jet has been just too far north so far this winter/cold front season to provide us any rain relief. Hopefully things change next month like they did in Januarys 2010 and 2016 with those respected El Niño winters.



As for the temperature side of things, it's looking quite likely that we remain near normal through the 22nd at least according to the latest 12z NAEFS Temperature Probability map.

Wow this would be so awesome a christmas actually feeling like christmas in SFL? Just maybe super long range i know...

SFLcane wrote:Wow this would be so awesome a christmas actually feeling like christmas in SFL? Just maybe super long range i know...

https://i.postimg.cc/fyZ5Vskf/gfs-z500a-eus-48.png

Not trying to burst your bubble, because I certainly would love a cool or even cold Christmas too. But the GFS has been worthless to look at beyond 10 days.

FWIW, the CPC is calling for above normal temperatures for the peninsula for the period of December 22nd-January 4th which is the experimental weeks 3-4 forecast which is released every Friday afternoon, so take it with a grain of salt.

TheStormExpert wrote:

SFLcane wrote:Wow this would be so awesome a christmas actually feeling like christmas in SFL? Just maybe super long range i know...

https://i.postimg.cc/fyZ5Vskf/gfs-z500a-eus-48.png

Not trying to burst your bubble, because I certainly would love a cool or even cold Christmas too. But the GFS has been worthless to look at beyond 10 days.

FWIW, the CPC is calling for above normal temperatures for the peninsula for the period of December 22nd-January 4th which is the experimental weeks 3-4 forecast which is released every Friday afternoon, so take it with a grain of salt.

Aware of all this just trying to stay positive for Xmas it’s just 1 fantasy run by the gfs.

I’m a big fan of cold weather but look at the NAO positive for the foreseeable future which means only glancing blows. 70 for high and 55 for low, when we do get a front.The rain deficit is getting large the lake in front of my house is 70 % down.

boca wrote:I’m a big fan of cold weather but look at the NAO positive for the foreseeable future which means only glancing blows. 70 for high and 55 for low, when we do get a front.The rain deficit is getting large the lake in front of my house is 70 % down.

And as usual NWS is gradually dropping the temps. Now west Boca (where I believe you are at) is looking at a low around 50F Monday night with a high of only 67F. There will be gusty NW winds making it feel colder. Latest Euro looking chilly for Florida too.

Heavy squall line approaching the Tampa Bay Area and nature coast this morning. I see NWS has special marine warnings issued.

Edit

Looks like here in brevard nothing more than some rain not even heavy rain by the looks of the radar