STORM2K

Moderate rainfall here across the Jax area this morning. Lacking the instability needed for severe weather up here today. This is a fast moving storm system racing along the southern jet stream.

The significant rain will be ending by mid afternoon here as the parent Low Pressure area moves farther notheast off the Southeast U.S. coast.

Now, the potent, broad upper low/trough hanging back currently over the Central Plains, will move southeast from there to the TN Valley thorugh into tonight. It then will move from the TN Valley region southeast. through the rest of the Georgia east through the Carolinas Monday-Tuesday.

A very cold pool of air aloft in the mid to upper levels with this Upper Level Low. for Monday through Tuesday. 500 mb temps are well below stand deviation levels, showing over -20 Celsius over Northeast Florida and Southeast GA.

Also 850 mb temperatures are showing 0 degrees by Tuesday morning. It is a shame that no substantial residual moisture will be left behind in such a cold, upper level pool of air aloft or else we would have had a decent shot of seeing wintry precip in this area.

The 12Z GFS finallly has the base of the upper trough finally moving off the Southeast U S. Coast by 06Z Tuesday morning. Monday will be a cold, breezy overcast day here with some chance of light rain or sprinkles during the day. High temps will struggle to reach 50 degrees if we are lucky.

Skies will clear late Monday with the passage of the base of upper trough. The best chance of freeze here in North Florida will be on Wednesday morning, with clear skies and lighter wind as the High Pressure ridge gets closer to the area. Also, remember the fresh snow and icepack across much of North Carolina and Southern Virginia to our north. This will help from keeping this incoming cold airmass from moderating too quickly.

So, the rest of the peninsula will be considerably below normal temperature wise heaing through up to mid week. We will see a brief warm up Thursday and Friday before the next potent shortwave this upcoming weekend. This next one has just as impressive dynamics as this current one moving through the region. We will discuss more later as the week progresses I am sure

The El Nino split flow pattern rages on for the foreseeable future.

I got jackpotted this morning with the line. exceptional rainfall intensities yielded radar estimates of over 2"...a good deal of which fell inside of 20 minutes. the ground has soaked it all up. Love a good cold season thunderstorm

1.31 inches here today...and it seemed to come all at the end.
One downpour was summer-like in intensity, but no lightning at all though.

Radar showed what looked like a wannabe squall line on the back side of the main rain blob - that seemed odd to me.
Usually the heavy rain comes first

Other then some prefrontal showers this morning the wx with the front just poofed...we have lots to learn. Never fails across SFL

We no longer get strong cold fronts down in S Fl they fall apart just north of Lake O and the time it gets down here it’s just a wind shift line so I agree with SFLcane.

There was never much in the way of QOF modeled south of I-10 for this event. If anything it overperformed in some of those areas and met expectations for the remainder

psyclone wrote::uarrow: There was never much in the way of QOF modeled south of I-10 for this event. If anything it overperformed in some of those areas and met expectations for the remainder

I am in pompano beach and just a few miles north of me there was a marginal risk for severe weather and you’d think atleast some showers are possible but not a drop. The magic zapper

I’m in Boca Raton and nada for me either.

Here in east Boca we received some beneficial rain on both Sat and Sun, more than I thought we would see. The rain Saturday was due to some convergence that setup along the coast and Sunday was from some showers that developed in the morning not related to the front.

Temperatures have been holding steady in the mid 40s all day long across all of North Florida with strong cold advection as overcast, breezy conditions, as expected, is definitely giving us a Christmas-like feel in the air for sure! This hour 46.4 degrees on the thermometer at my home locale. We will not see 50 today.

Clouds will remain up until tomorrow morning, then the base of the Upper Low/trough will pivot through Georgia and the Carolinas late tonight and through the day tomorrow. Skies will clear when that trough axis finally shifts east of here and the peninsula as a whole.

Looking around the peninsula this afternoon, temps range only in the 40s across most of North Florida and in the mid-upper 50s through most of the central peninsula, except some low-mid 60s around the Space Coast region near Melbourne and Vero Beach, and with some lower to mid-60s across the Tampa Bay region and SW Florida region. South Florida stations across Palm Beach, Dade, and Broward are showing a range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s this hour.

Latest MOS keeps us at 34 degrees at NWS Jax for Wednesday morning. The key will be in seeing if there will be enough mixing at the surface to keep temps just above the freeze mark. Light to calm wind and fair/clear skies will provide good radiational cooling to possibly get to the freeze mark. It will be another close call again. We have had only one freeze so far here, and that was on November 28. We have had three near misses though over the past two weeks.

going feel like Christmas here in south fl now only 68 that low for this time a day look front not clear area yet very cloudy we going drop to low 50 and tue too low 50 too and little warm up and drop low 60s on Friday put i see if that chance by wed and miami weather service saying could see strong storm with weekend front so likely whole state could see strong storms doing weekend

It turned out to be rather raw here with cold air stratocum off the gulf and daytime temps in the upper 50's to near 60...it definitely felt colder. Tomorrow's high here is expected to be around 60 again which is more than 10 degrees below normal. Another warm up with storms is on the docket thereafter. This year is feeling more Nino-ish than the 15-16 super nino. A couple of brief weak tornadoes accompanied yesterday's storms and I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if we continue to see more of that..

boca wrote:I’m in Boca Raton and nada for me either.

We had some decent downpours in East Boca both Saturday and Sunday.

Weekend starting to look like a washout with this next front but lets see if the magic zapper does not get it near the lake.

Rather chilly here in coastal SE Florida, clear skies but brisk NW winds making it feel much colder, only 57F here in Boca Raton at 11:00. Impressive front!

Anyone want to bet that it will be 80 for Christmas because it never fails that its chilly in early December it will be summer like om Christmas

It probably won't be 80 on Christmas from the I-4 corridor northward because it usually isn't. Most Christmas high temps in central florida are in the 60's or 70's.

The sun is out and a beautiful, blue and sunny sky prevails across the region this afternoon. A nice, cool, very dry Canadian airmass has settled in nicely across the region. Temperatures currently in the mid 50s across the Jax area and dew points at this hour are in the mid 30s. The wind now has dropped to less than 10 mph now here, a good indicator that the High Pressure axis is getting closer to the region this afternoon. The fresh snowpack also to our north is helping to preserve this cold airmass to set the stage for quite a cold night for the peninsula.

The 1032 mb High Pressure dome center is currently over Southern Mississippi. This will move east to be centered over the Florida Panhandle by 12Z tomorrow morning. Now that the sharp upper level trough axis has passed us by well to our east, the southern stream jet should stay suppressed far enough south for tonight up through early tomorrow morning. It is because of this fact that I don't foresee any high level cirrus clouds streaming in to help agitate the radiational cooling this time around. This has happened a few times over the past couple of weeks to save us here from seeing temps reach at or below freezing. Looking at the current conditions as I see it, I think we are primed to see quite a cold night in store across North Florida. Inland freeze warnings are already up for all of North Florida . We should also see widespread frost by tomorrow morning as well across the interior region. The Suwanee River Valley/ Big Bend region may see readings down into the upper 20s in some spots. Otherwise, lower 30s will be widespread across inland Jax ( Duval County) and the rest of Northeast Florida.

As for the rest of the peninsula, it will also be quite a chilly night as well. In fact, could be the coolest night so far of this early winter season for some spots down in the central peninsula. The very cool, Canadian dry airmass in place will allow temps to drop off fast after sunset, and with wind becoming light across the region, temps will get down into the mid-upper 30s over around those cold-drainage spots, especially Brooksville, and over to Ocala, and they will see frost as well. The Tampa area is forecasting near 40 degrees by tomorrow morning, as well as Orlando metro and the interior areas of East Central peninsula away from the coast. I would not be shocked in the least to see upper 30s in some spots in the colder interior central peninsula locales. The mid-upper 40s are forecast for Sarasota and Ft. Myers areas tomorrow morning, as well as areas away from Lake Okechobee.

However, South Florida will be a bit different tonight. The High axis will not get close enough to the South Florida region to allow the wind to lay down enough to allow for good radiational cooling conditions. The wind is forecast to stay within the 10 mph range through the night down that way. Still, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 40s interior areas near the Everglades to the low 50s for inland Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade counties.

Tomorrow will be another nice day across the area with temps slowly creeping back toward seasonable norms. It will be warmer on Thursday with strong southerly wind flow advecting into the region out ahead of the next system emrging from out west. However, this next potent shortwave will rapidly move along the southern stream jet beginning Thursday. The dynamics with this shortwave look very impressive. The models, particularly the GFS, is indicating a potential strong squall line out ahead of this system moving out of the GOM to cross the peninsula on Fridayk afternoon. There could be possible severe weather across the region Fridsy into Friday night. This is something that will have to watched very closely the next couple of days.

Thanks for that good analysis northjaxpro. I see NWS Melbourne has issued frost advisories for inland Central Florida counties including Orlando and as far south to the northern Lake O coastline. Indeed shaping up to be potentially the coldest night for the peninsula so far. Also another example of how the event is going to be colder than forecasted late last week where NWS offices have had to lower their temps gradually as we get closer.

My NWS forecast low tonight is 42. If we make it that's the coldest night of the season so far. As much as Im interested in Friday's weather maker so far the WPC outputs keep QPF minimal outside of north Florida..with a pretty good max over the big bend. As always it will be interesting to watch trends there as we get closer...along with the spc's convective outlooks. I wouldn't be surprised to see some severe risk introduced over northern florida and southern Georgia with time.