Texas Fall-2015

[Portastorm]

What do you mean dhweather? There's a Cat 5 in the Gulf right now ... Patricia! Well, she was a Cat 5 in her earlier days.

[weatherdude1108]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
313 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA CONTINUED
TO SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE HIGHWAY
77 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON
STRENGTHENS.

FOR THIS EVENING...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE (20%) FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR THE MENTIONED AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WE EXPECT SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
OF SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WIND SPEEDS
FINALLY UNDERGO A NOTICEABLE DROP MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...BUT WILL ONLY BRING A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT TO THE REGION.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN MEXICO BY
EARLY SATURDAY. TODAY/S MODEL RUNS ARE FARTHER SOUTHWEST COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY/S DATA. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY (50-70%) RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PERIOD. BASED ON
THIS...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

[wxman57]

OK, enough with the rain. I'm at 8.9" for this event and 64.1" for the year. Next weekend is looking very wet, too. Good bet the total yearly rainfall will top 70", possibly close to 80".

[gboudx]

It was 8.6" for me.

[Tireman4]

OK, enough with the rain. I'm at 8.9" for this event and 64.1" for the year. Next weekend is looking very wet, too. Good bet the total yearly rainfall will top 70", possibly close to 80".

Add some snow inches on top of that by the end of the year!!! He he

[JDawg512]

Final total is right at 7 inches for me. Putting my year to date total at 52.40.

[vbhoutex]

OK, enough with the rain. I'm at 8.9" for this event and 64.1" for the year. Next weekend is looking very wet, too. Good bet the total yearly rainfall will top 70", possibly close to 80".

I'm at 7.88" for this one and we are still getting light rain. That is more rain than we have had in the last 3 months combined and second only to Memorial Day flooding rains. Year is at 57.32".

[Brent]

Just scrolling facebook and dislike this:

Steve McCauley Warm and humid by Thursday, then a bit of a cool down for the weekend, and then getting well above normal heading in to November...so don't put away the shorts yet!
Like · Reply · 2 · 1 hr

[Ntxw]

12z Euro does show a widespread 5-10" of rain still. I think it wants to entrain some Olaf moisture with the trough. Would be an interesting idea and a multi day rain event through all of halloween weekend. Unlike Oho a few weeks ago, Olaf isn't heading for NW Canada, may get caught up in the subtropical jet. Sprawling ridge in the gulf is moisture transport at the low levels from the gulf of Mexico much like this past weekend.

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley

An impressive storm system south of the Aleutian Islands of Alaska will be moving across the North Pacific this week and then split off a large piece of its energy that will dive south across the West Coast and then be poised just to the west of Texas by next weekend. Hurricane Olaf will have long dissipated by then, but some of its energy could get captured by this approaching storm. The area immediately ahead of these type of storm systems is the best place to develop widespread rain.

Some of the data suggest this storm will split the jet stream over north Texas which would enhance our chances for heavy thunderstorms, BUT ... not all data support this solution, so it cannot be guaranteed at this time. And although it is too early to determine the exact timing of the waves of thunderstorms expected by end of the week and the weekend, we will certainly be watching for any sign that they may try to play havoc with Halloween.

[Ntxw]

WPC is already having it on their radar and they like the Euro. If this happens 1991 is probably a little nervous. It looks like a top 5 wettest years is almost guaranteed.

[weatherdude1108]

Texas Storm Chasers just put a short writeup about this event on FB.

http://texasstormchasers.com/2015/10/25 ... ng-friday/

[TexasF6]

Is that magnificent monster low battering Alaska digging SSE our Halloween Event? Wow what a storm on the rainbow satelite!!! Powerful

[southerngale]

It's been raining for 2 days straight and still raining, without a break. Some heavy, some lighter, but NO breaks at all. And the wind has been crazy.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSMidland: 420am CDT: Marfa, TX is officially the 1st site in W/SW TX to hit freezing this season! The Freeze Warning remains until 8am. #txwx

[wxman57]

Final total for me was 9.16". That makes 64.28" for 2015.

[Tireman4]

Long range....Halloween night...rain...lots of rain...or still too early?

[dhweather]

From twitter @gregpostel


GregPostel: November will likely start really warm (relative to avg.) for many. Some records may fall in there ...

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

OK, enough with the rain. I'm at 8.9" for this event and 64.1" for the year. Next weekend is looking very wet, too. Good bet the total yearly rainfall will top 70", possibly close to 80".

I wouldn't mind seeing a day or 2 of blue skies, but keep the rain coming. My total from this storm ended up at 10.22. Not bad, though it still makes me crazy that after 3 straight months with practically no measurable rainfall, I pickup 25% of my annual total in a 48-hour period.

[dhweather]

Great viz of winds - remnants of Patricia, monster storm in the Gulf of Alaska.





Animated here:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 43.46,1154