Texas Spring 2016

[Ntxw]

Coastal and SE Texas has taken a beating with the rainfall. Pattern looks to remain.

As Brent mentioned, DFW will be flirting with low-max highs on Thursday. If not, it will still be in the 60s most of the day which in mid to late May is unusual. This in contrast to the relatively anomalous warmth of the past 10 months.

Large scale patterns will slowly change as we move into neutral ENSO. With the Nino forcing taking a backseat, maybe the EPO will revert to being more effective as it has been the past several years. Certainly is this week.

[aggiecutter]

The greatest forecaster of all-time:

[weatherrabbit_tx]

That's no other then JB....YOUNGER JB I may add. "Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got!" ~JB

[TexasF6]

Anyone notice the PDS signature on th souding for tomorrow from the NAM-4KM? Yes, its the NAM, but that's serious. Even if it might be a derecho type storm like that SPC is sorta hinting at??

[Brent]

I was expecting more rain this week so far... kind of surprised.

Even still, both the GFS and Euro say once DFW drops into the 60s tonight, it won't see the 70s again til Friday... The record lowest maximum tomorrow is 63, so likely won't be broken... but 68 on Thursday is definitely in danger.

From the FWD AFD, brrr

Temperatures on
Thursday will be unseasonably cool, with some guidance suggesting
that readings may struggle to top the mid 60s.

[Ntxw]

I was expecting more rain this week so far... kind of surprised.

Even still, both the GFS and Euro say once DFW drops into the 60s tonight, it won't see the 70s again til Friday... The record lowest maximum tomorrow is 63, so likely won't be broken... but 68 on Thursday is definitely in danger.

From the FWD AFD, brrr

Temperatures on
Thursday will be unseasonably cool, with some guidance suggesting
that readings may struggle to top the mid 60s.

The clouds and temperatures certainly has and will pan out. DFW airport still needs to record rainfall though. So far this spring the official rainfall amounts have been lackluster at the big airport. About one and a half inches behind normal. We can make that up this week however. A lot of the heavy stuff have missed to the north, south, east, and west...



And yeah Thursday low-max temp could be in jeopardy. GFS is predicting low to mid 60s.

[gpsnowman]

The line of storms approaching from the west seem to be weakening but we should see some rain in about an hour.

[weatherdude1108]

Mid-May with a temperature of 64 degrees on my weather station this morning. Highs in the mid-70s for today and tomorrow, and full lakes. I'll take it!

[Shoshana]

Mid-May with a temperature of 64 degrees on my weather station this morning. Highs in the mid-70s for today and tomorrow, and full lakes. I'll take it!

I am really enjoying having the windows open and having that cool breeze blow through.

Yesterday was a bit stressful while I was at work not knowing if my car was going to be get hailed on again though. Glad it didn't hail. Seems like we're not getting more hail than usual but we're getting more warnings further in advance and the hail doesn't actually happen. I heard a lot of people talking about that at work (I work retail) yesterday, and everyone was saying they ignore all the forecasts for bad weather because of that. Conditions change all the time but most people don't understand that.

[Brent]

61 degrees at 4pm in the afternoon... can we bottle some of this air up for July and August?

[Ntxw]

64 is the official high, one shy of the low max record. Feels great! With rain tomorrow and a warmer record, could be broken.

[Brent]

I think it may be time to move back to the winter thread... it's chilly rainy and windy... most of winter wasn't even like that

[Tireman4]

Here we go. From HGX AFD this morning:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.AVIATION...
Area radar shows increasing thunderstorm activity over central
Texas. Overall trends in observed convection and in HRRR runs
indicate this activity should reach SE Texas later this morning
into the early afternoon. Main concern for today is timing
convection which has it reaching KCLL by 16-18z and then Houston
terminals 19-20z this afternoon. It is quite possible that this
timing may need to be sooner by an hour or two. The 15z TAF update
and the 18z TAF package should provide opportunity to update for
timing. TSRA should come to an end around 00-02z with CIGS
lowering to MVFR levels, perhaps IFR with moisture lingering and
light winds. Prior to any convection, obs show LIFR/IFR cigs for
KCLL/KUTS. Expect CIGS to improve through the morning as
convection approaches and frontal boundary begins to move north
reaching Houston in the early afternoon. There could be some
breaks in the ceilings as convection nears the region but think
CIGS will be MVFR for most of the time until convection clear out
of the area.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
Issued a flash flood watch effective from 10 AM today through
midnight this evening. A rather moist air mass was beginning to
pool over the southern half of the forecast area early this
morning. Expect that this air mass will continue to moisten and
PW/S later today should approach 1.8 to 2 inches (depending upon
the model of choice). A split jet pattern at 200 and 300 mb will
help provide good lift over the area as an area of vorticity
advection moves overhead at 500 mb in association with a shortwave
trough. The surface boundary in place near the coast is forecast
to slowly move inland or remain nearly stationary as well. Even
though the models are showing a more progressive storm pattern
this afternoon and evening, deep layer shear and the very moist
environment should lead to rainfall rates high enough to warrant a
flash flood watch. Some training is possible as well.

There is some disagreement with the models on when the area of
rain and storms will clear out of the forecast area. A consensus
has lessoning POPS through tonight, with likely POPS this evening
and then becoming scattered to isolated overnight tonight and
Friday from west to east. The rain chances drop to below 20
percent Friday evening.

Shortwave ridging aloft will build overhead over the weekend. This
will lead to temperatures warming into the mid and upper 80s. By
Sunday some of the guidance was hinting at afternoon highs
reaching to around 90. Will like to see more consistency between
the models and will stay with the 80s for now. However, warmer
than normal temperatures look to be on the way after a near to
cooler than normal first three weeks of the month.

40

MARINE...
Latest surface obs show light easterly winds along the coat and in
the Gulf. Stalled frontal boundary stretches from the middle Texas
coast eastward towards the northern Gulf. This boundary should push
north as a warm front today with southeast winds over the upper
Texas coastal waters. A outflow boundary was noted on radar moving
along the upper Texas coast this morning which has helped enhance
easterly winds so a short fuse small craft exercise caution was
needed.

Friday winds turn back to the northeast to east as another frontal
boundary pushes into the region. Southeast winds develop again
Sunday and then increase Monday and Tuesday. Overall seas should
remain around 3 to 4 feet for most areas but should begin to build
early next week with the increase in southeast winds.

Tide levels remain elevated today and will be about a half foot to 1
foot above normal. East to southeast winds later this afternoon may
push tides closer to 1 foot above normal. Overall water levels
should remain low enough for minimal impacts along the beaches the
next couple of days. East to southeast winds will support a higher
risk for rip currents along Gulf facing beaches.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 65 83 68 87 / 80 60 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 79 68 86 69 89 / 80 60 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 74 84 76 84 / 70 60 30 10 10

&&

[Ntxw]

I had to wear a light jacket with my run this morning, the wind was fairly brisk. The rain forecast hasn't materialized in quantity for the northern half of the state but is healthy for the southern half. Not surprising though given how cool it is up north, with stalled front from near I-10. Usually its much further north in May.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Whats the risk of this front stalling over top of us in SE Tx?

[Ralph's Weather]

64 is the official high, one shy of the low max record. Feels great! With rain tomorrow and a warmer record, could be broken.

Still only 60 at noon in Tyler. I will have to check the record here but imagine we have a good shot at it .

Update: if today fails to go above 65, which seems likely, it will be the 5th latest such day in the Tyler record book. In 1961, we had a day in mid June that failed to reach 65 which seems amazing to me. Bet it was a very wet day to keep it that low.

[weatherdude1108]

Mid-May with a temperature of 64 degrees on my weather station this morning. Highs in the mid-70s for today and tomorrow, and full lakes. I'll take it!

I am really enjoying having the windows open and having that cool breeze blow through.

Yesterday was a bit stressful while I was at work not knowing if my car was going to be get hailed on again though. Glad it didn't hail. Seems like we're not getting more hail than usual but we're getting more warnings further in advance and the hail doesn't actually happen. I heard a lot of people talking about that at work (I work retail) yesterday, and everyone was saying they ignore all the forecasts for bad weather because of that. Conditions change all the time but most people don't understand that.

Yeah, I have noticed a lot warnings with no fanfare. I brought in my plants and covered one with a bucket and bricks that my daughter and I just planted to protect from hail. I have done that several times. No hail. I can see how that will make people not believe the warnings. But I personally always take them seriously since every storm is different.
Better to be precautious and nothing happen versus ignore and have your car/sensitive plants take a beating.

[Ntxw]

DFW has climbed to 70 since not much rain has fallen during warm hours, no record.

[Ntxw]

Being that we are going in the final stretch of May many areas are running below normal for the month. Do not see any signal for heat waves or early onset of summer anytime soon. Summer of wxman57's discontent coming? Better not poke the bear...

Reminder we will be shifting to the summer thread on the 1st of June to remain in the pattern of meteorological seasons we've been using (June-July-August next). I don't believe anyone has yet made one so if someone would like to feel free!. I'd like for someone with good juju so that we can keep the "summer" discussions cool and watered down

[South Texas Storms]

Done! Hoping for a wet and cool summer this year like 2007!