Texas Fall 2022

[gpsnowman]

Larry Cosgrove is on board with a quick return to cold after our mini warm up. He targets the 12/7-12/21 period with a dump of arctic air on our side of the globe.

[TropicalTundra]

Larry Cosgrove is on board with a quick return to cold after our mini warm up. He targets the 12/7-12/21 period with a dump of arctic air on our side of the globe.

And then on Christmas we can go skinny dipping?

[gpsnowman]

At the end of the run (11/21/2022 12z GFS), but you know, a man can dream.

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-for-500mb-anomalies.png
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-for-500mb-anomalies.png

That is some major league blocking from Alaska all the way over to Greenland.

[gpsnowman]

Larry Cosgrove is on board with a quick return to cold after our mini warm up. He targets the 12/7-12/21 period with a dump of arctic air on our side of the globe.

And then on Christmas we can go skinny dipping?

And then suffer some Seinfeld type "shrinkage".

[Iceresistance]

Larry Cosgrove is on board with a quick return to cold after our mini warm up. He targets the 12/7-12/21 period with a dump of arctic air on our side of the globe.

And then on Christmas we can go skinny dipping?

Not if the Arctic air sticks around and makes a White Christmas!

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1594756864532971520

[Itryatgolf]

Larry Cosgrove is on board with a quick return to cold after our mini warm up. He targets the 12/7-12/21 period with a dump of arctic air on our side of the globe.

I read what Larry said on Instagram and we will warm up, but how long is million dollar question. He says the mjo is in phases 2,3, and 4 but the charts show it going into 6 and then 7 unless there are two areas of convection. Keeping the mjo out of the warm phases will be key whether we see any legit cold and stormy weather imo

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1594744061902168066

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS already off to a crazy start with snow in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.

[Brent]

at this rate I wouldn't completely rule out wintry weather close by here seems hard to believe given the forecast yesterday but yeah

[Iceresistance]

:double: at this rate I wouldn't completely rule out wintry weather close by here seems hard to believe given the forecast yesterday but yeah

https://i.ibb.co/XSTqy3v/gfs-asnow-scus-19.png

Rainfall is now up to 1-3 inches

Last post for the night, the 0z GFS is launching a big cold blast in the long range in early December

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

:double: at this rate, I wouldn't completely rule out wintry weather close by here seems hard to believe given the forecast yesterday but yeah

https://i.ibb.co/XSTqy3v/gfs-asnow-scus-19.png

Given how dynamic this system will be, it isn't such a long shot that we see the snow potential spread eastward. At least, that is what I'm telling myself!

[Iceresistance]

RDPS has snow along and west of I-35 in Oklahoma, hopefully just bluff.

Panhandle Texas may get clobbered, one of the Pro-mets on a different forum has moved to Amarillo, TX to work at the NWS there. I have invited him over here, last I heard, he's considering it.

[snowballzzz]

Looks like all models, including the NAM, seem to be in agreeance of the track of the system later this week. Looks like a decent rain maker for east Texas and snow on the backend with someone getting a bullseye between Lubbock and Amarillo (Surprise, surprise). If only the low would dip further south and east..

[snowballzzz]

RDPS has snow along and west of I-35 in Oklahoma, hopefully just bluff.

Panhandle Texas may get clobbered, one of the Pro-mets on a different forum has moved to Amarillo, TX to work at the NWS there. I have invited him over here, last I heard, he's considering it.

What other forum are you speaking of, if you don't mind sharing? I have been looking for other winter weather/general weather forums to join.

[Iceresistance]

RDPS has snow along and west of I-35 in Oklahoma, hopefully just bluff.

Panhandle Texas may get clobbered, one of the Pro-mets on a different forum has moved to Amarillo, TX to work at the NWS there. I have invited him over here, last I heard, he's considering it.

What other forum are you speaking of, if you don't mind sharing? I have been looking for other winter weather/general weather forums to join.

I did in a PM

[Cpv17]

Looks like all models, including the NAM, seem to be in agreeance of the track of the system later this week. Looks like a decent rain maker for east Texas and snow on the backend with someone getting a bullseye between Lubbock and Amarillo (Surprise, surprise). If only the low would dip further south and east..

I’m right there with you in wishing it would track further south and east. Not sure areas south of I-10 will see much rain from this.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Showers and Thunderstorms likely Thursday into Friday.

Surface coastal trough over the NW Gulf is starting to move eastward this morning and this will take the light rain south of I-10 off to the east by midday. Upstream radars still show returns over SW and SC TX, but with slightly drier air starting to enter the region from the northeast, think much of this will dissipate before reaching the ground. Clouds will hold tough however, with maybe some slight clearing off to the northeast where the best bet for dry air to make some play into the area.

Upper level trough entering the NW US will drop SE over the next 24 hours and then begin to deepen and cut-off from the upper level flow over the US. The result will be significant height falls Wednesday into Thursday over E NM and W TX helping to induce surface low pressure over NW TX. Onshore winds will return to coastal TX with warm air advection in place by Wednesday afternoon. Scattered showers will begin to develop in the warm air advection regime Wednesday night over the region.

Thursday:
Surface cold front will slowly move into SE TX with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely. Timing is still in question, but it is likely there will be periods of wet weather throughout the day on Thursday…plan accordingly. Surface front should move off the upper TX coast by early to mid evening on Thursday, but cut-off mid and upper level system will remain to the west and result in strong lift and moisture transport over the surface cool air. The result will be a continued wet pattern into Thursday night and Friday.

Rainfall amounts Thursday into Friday will average .50-1.5 inches over the region with the highest rainfall likely north of I-10. While SPC has outlooked the Matagorda Bay region for a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday, instability is greatly lacking and while thunderstorms will be possible, think the severe threat is low. If anything maybe some small hail with the cold pool aloft moving over the region.

Friday:
Slow moving upper level system to our west will progress east on Friday, how fast remains in question. Typical closed upper lows tend to move slower than guidance suggests. Some decent agreement that showers will linger into much of Friday with the CMC and GFS continuing to be the slowest and most aggressive with the rainfall. ECWMF has trended in the slower direction over the last 24 hours, but is still faster than much of the guidance. Dry slot may attempt to move into the area Friday afternoon helping to end the rainfall and clearing clouds from the WSW, but I am not confident in this actually occurring and we may stay locked into the cloudy and wet into Friday evening.

Weekend:
Upper low should begin to move east, but how fast is in question. The faster solutions have the system east of TX by Saturday with clearing skies and warming temperatures…the slower guidance keeps clouds in place on Saturday and possibly some light showers. Temperatures will warm into the 60’s and 70’s by Sunday with clearing skies and a return of southerly winds.

West TX/TX Panhandle:
With lots on travel late this week, those traveling to W TX/E NM/TX Panhandle should be aware that the same storm system will bring potentially significant snowfall, especially in the TX panhandle from Wednesday night-Friday night. Snowfall amounts of 6-12 inches will be possible which will result in significant travel disruption.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[jasons2k]

NWS Fort Worth on Twitter:

Unfortunately, the Thanksgiving forecast has took a turn for the worse. An upper system now looks like it will hang around for several days. Expect rain to start Wednesday and continue off/on through Saturday. The highest rain chances are across North and East Texas. #txwx