Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Cool minimum temperatures and windy conditions continue in Central America. These are yesterday temperatures and max wind gusts:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.3°C (55.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.6°C (36.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18.2°C (64.8°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.0°C (50.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F) Coldest since June 25
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.7°C (60.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32.0°C (89.6°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.4°C (84.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.0°C (95.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.7°C (78.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.1°C (50.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.0°C (93.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 26.1°C (79.0°F)

Strongest Wind Gust:

Belize city, Belize 27 km/h (17 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 41 km/h (26 mph)
Ishuatán, El Salvador 35 km/h (22 mph)
Nueva Ocotepque, Honduras 44 km/h (28 mph)
Managua, Nicaragua 33 km/h (21 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 49 km/h (31 mph)
Panama city, Panama 24 km/h (15 mph)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. As mentioned before,it looks like the Thanksgiving holiday will be a wet one for PR/VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST MON NOV 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TODAY AND MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. FOR
TOMORROW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RELAXING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE BIG PICTURE. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
AND TO COMPLETELY FLATTEN OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW. THERE
IS ALSO A SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER
OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT...EXPECTED MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING TIME OF MAX
HEATING...WIND FLOW...AND THE LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE REST
OF THE AREA...SUCH AS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...MAY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES.

TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN WHICH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FOR MID AND THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. LONG
RANGE MODELS KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEREFORE THE CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF IT IS FORECAST TO BE RIGHT OVER THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL EITHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH OR
WEAKENS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA IS MOVG INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WILL
BRING SPOTTY MVFR CONDS TO TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST 19/14Z.
THESE TAF SITES WILL SEE A DEFINITE IMPVMT AFT 19/19Z. SCT SHRA
FOR TIST/TISX WITH MVFR VCNTY WITH BREAK BTWN 19/11-15Z THEN MORE
SHRA/MVFR PSBL TIL AFT 20/12Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO
TIL 19/16Z EXCEPT ERN COAST IN SCT SHRA. AFT 19/16Z SHRA/TSRA WILL
GENERATE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDS MAINLY NW VCNTY TJMZ
AND TJBQ AND OVR CORDILLERA CENTRAL. CLRG AFT 20/02Z. LLVL WINDS
ESE 5 TO 15 KT UP THRU 15 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY TODAY...AS
SEAS MAY BE UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 19 KNOTS TODAY...WIND SPEEDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 74 / 40 30 30 30
STT 83 82 83 82 / 60 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

November 19 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 19 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Generally fair, except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 5 knots (6 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (82F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:15 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:20 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:21 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON NOV 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...DO NOT BELIEVE THE MODELS PICKED UP ON THE HIGHER
LEVELS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND
IS MANIFESTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
PR. EXPECT THESE TO SPREAD ESPECIALLY WEST. WRF APPEARS TO HAVE
THE RIGHT IDEA IN THESE SHOWERS LASTING 2-3 HOURS THOUGH AM NOT AS
SURE ABOUT REGENERATING SHOWERS IN EAST PR AS IT DOES BY VERY LATE
AFTERNOON. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM THOUGH AN ISOLATED SPOT
OR TWO COULD SEE A LITTLE.

UPPER JET DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR IN CONVECTION THIS WEEK
EXCEPT MAYBE A LITTLE TO ENHANCE IT ON TUE AFTERNOON. BY THEN THE
MOIST PLUME CURRENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA EXTENDING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST WILL SAG TOWARDS PR/USVI WITH A WEAKENING JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS. SO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF
FLOODING ON TUE.

MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR WOULD ARRIVE BEHIND THE
REMNANT FRONT BY MON/SUN. 12Z GFS PUSHES THAT FRONT NO WHERE CLOSE
TO US NOW...BUT A MINOR SWELL EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED ON THE NORTH
SHORES BY SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHRA/TSRA WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PR
THROUGH AT LEAST 19/22Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ
AND TJBQ AND OVR CORDILLERA CENTRAL. CLRG EXPECTED AFT 20/02Z. LLVL
WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE SSE AT 5 TO 10 KTS
TONIGHT...VEERING TO THE SSW BY 20/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 74 87 / 30 50 10 50
STT 76 86 76 86 / 30 20 20 40

[Macrocane]

Still cold in Central America (I have to say I love this weather), actually today was the coldest of the year in San Salvador so far. This cold pattern is expected to continue this week:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EST MON NOV 19 2012

DISCUSSION FROM NOV 19/00 UTC: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SINUSOIDAL FLOW
PATTERN IS INITIALIZED ACROSS THE DOMAIN...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC-CENTRAL AMERICA SEPARATING TWO RIDGES. THE
WESTERNMOST EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO WHILE THE OTHER TO THE EAST
ENVELOPS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN. RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS TO
HOLD THROUGH 48-54 HRS...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY 66-72 HRS AS A
STRONG PERTURBATION IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA/NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...AS IT HOLDS...THE
RIDGE IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR A SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...WHERE IT IS TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION. BUT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS LATER IN THE
CYCLE...TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF STATES
OF MEXICO WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO
HOLD DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HRS...THEN RAPIDLY CRUMBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 20N AS THE POLAR TROUGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO LIFT OVER THIS
AXIS. SUCCESSIVE PERTURBATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE TO
FOLLOW...EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THESE ARE NOT GOING TO
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BOUNCE BACK...WITH AXIS TO THEN CONFINE TO THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. MEANWHILE...THIS RIDGE WILL FAVOR A SUBSIDENCE
CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WHERE IT IS TO
INHIBIT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.

POLAR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS TO SLOWLY PULL OVER THE
RIDGE AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST. THE LATTER
WILL THEN REPLACE THE FORMER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 60-72
HRS. AT LOW LEVELS THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS IS A
PATTERN THAT PERSISTS...IF NOT REGENERATES UNDER INFLUENCE OF
SECONDARY VORTICES...THROUGH 96-108 HRS. THE BROAD POLAR TROUGH
WILL SUSTAIN A COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN AND A POLAR FRONT ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS-CUBA...THAT STRENGTHENS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY
48-54 HRS...INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA/THE YUCATAN BY 54-60
HRS. BY 72-84 HRS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...TRAILING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. IT IS TO ALSO FAVOR A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA. FURTHERMORE...A
PREFRONTAL/INVERTED TROUGH IS TO ASSOCIATE WITH DEEP POLAR TROUGH
PATTERN TO THE NORTH...WITH AXIS NORTH BETWEEN LA GUAJIRA
PENINSULA/EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY IN THE
CYCLE. BUT THROUGH 72-96 HRS IT IS TO SHIFT WEST ALONG 73W/74W
BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA/HAITI.

BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND WANING RIDGE TO
THE EAST...WILL LEAD TO EROSION OF SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AS THE CAP CRUMBLES...AND FRONT/FRONTAL
SHEAR LINE MOVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DEEPER MOISTURE IS TO
POOL ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. COLD
ADVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA IS TO FAVOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...AND TRACE
AMOUNTS THEREAFTER. ACROSS HONDURAS...IN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM/DAY. THIS IS TO THEN INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM/DAY BY 72-84 HRS. ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA THE SHEAR
LINE CONFLUENCE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. BY 72-84 HRS THIS IS TO DECREASE TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. ACROSS PUERTO RICO
INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM/DAY. THROUGH 72 HRS THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. FURTHERMORE...EVOLVING MESO SYNOPTIC FLOW
PATTERN COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO GENERATION OF ECHO TRAINING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA BY 72-96
HRS...SO HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE CYCLE. OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...MODELS SHOW MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION CLUSTERING
ACROSS CARIBBEAN PLAINS/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF COSTA RICA TO
WESTERN PANAMA AND THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES/NEW PROVIDENCE. IN
THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-150MM/DAY.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO MODULATE THE ATLANTIC ITCZ
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA...WITH
MEANDERING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PULLING THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY...WHILE OVER THE ABC ISLANDS
TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON THE ANDEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. THROUGH
72-96 HRS THIS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)

[Macrocane]

See how cold we've been in Central America, these are the temperatures registered on November 18, 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Consejo Shores, Belize 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.5°C (54.5°F) Coldest since April 25, 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.8°C (33.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 16.0°C (60.8°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 11, 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.3°C (59.5°F) Coldest since January 6, 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.0°C (50.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F) Coldest since October 16
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.2°C (59.4°F) Coldest since April 16
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.2°C (43.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.0°C (60.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Consejo Shores, Belize 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 30.0°C (86.0°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.7°C (85.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.2°C (63.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.2°C (95.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.0°C (53.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)

Strongest Wind Gust:

Belize city, Belize 26 km/h (16 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 32 km/h (20 mph)
Ishuatán, El Salvador 38 km/h (24 mph)
Nueva Ocotepque, Honduras 44 km/h (28 mph)
Managua, Nicaragua 37 km/h (23 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 59 km/h (37 mph)
Panama city, Panama 26 km/h (16 mph)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST TUE NOV 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXED AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. UPPER JET EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA ARE LIKELY. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
UNDER THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BUT DOES NOT QUITE PUSH
THROUGH THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEREFORE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTHWEST...BRINGING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WIDE BAND OF MOISTURE WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOL TSRA WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS FROM
THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO TO JUST WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THIS AREA WILL MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO AFT 20/15Z WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR AT TJSJ AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. SHRA WILL CONT THRU 21/02Z IN THE USVI AND PR. LLVL
WINDS ARE LIGHT SOUTHERLY.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS ARE REPORTING SEAS
FROM 3 TO 5 FEET. THEREFORE THE FORECAST REFLECTS SEAS OF UP TO 5
FEET. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY AT 14
KNOTS OR LESS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL A
SWELL STARTS INVADING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 85 74 / 70 30 50 20
STT 84 79 84 79 / 60 30 40 30

[cycloneye]

November 20 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 20 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 5 knots (6 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (82F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:16 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:21 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:22 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
 


[abajan]

So far, this has been one of the driest Novembers I can recall. It's usually the wettest time of the year, especially early November. I must say that the weather today is picture perfect though: Beautiful blue sky with hardly any clouds, low humidity and cool breezes. Really nice!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT...GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL
RESULT INTENSE AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
SUPPORTED IN SOME WAY BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ALSO...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR BERMUDA MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A SHEARLINE/CONVERGENCE ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY CLOSE OR OVER PUERTO
RICO. ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS HAVE BEEN COMBINED TO ENHANCE THE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTH...CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA SINCE NOON AST. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS COULD
RESULT IN SOME FLOODING ISSUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THANKSGIVING AND THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS...
FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
WITH LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT...LAND/SEA BREEZE CYCLES WILL PLAY
AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 20/22Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJSJ. CLRG EXPECTED AFT 21/00Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY FROM THE SSW AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 74 86 / 30 60 30 70
STT 79 87 79 86 / 30 30 40 40

[Macrocane]

And more cold is on its way to Central America:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EST TUE NOV 20 2012

DISCUSSION FROM NOV 20/00 UTC: A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
INITIALIZED OVER MEXICO. THE STRONG RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
HOLD DURING THE NEXT 36-42 HRS...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
PERTURBATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS BAJA
PENINSULA/NORTHWEST MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWEST USA. BY 72-84 HRS THE
RIDGE IS TO NEARLY COLLAPSE ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO FAVOR A SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS MOST
OF MEXICO. LATER IN THE CYCLE...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...MODELS
TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ALONG THE RIO BRAVO
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES OF MEXICO.

ANOTHER RIDGE IS INITIALIZED ACROSS THE EASTERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT...THIS RIDGE IS TO FLATTEN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N AS SUCCESSIVE PERTURBATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE USA-GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
BY 30-36 HRS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS TO THEN CONFINE TO NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA-CARIBBEAN...WHILE A NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS TO
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO-NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. AT 500
HPA EVOLUTION APPEARS MORE PRONOUNCED...WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH 72-96 HRS. AS THE TROUGH ESTABLISHES...THE MID LEVEL HIGH
WILL RELOCATE TO JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...QUICKLY LEADING
TO TOTAL EROSION OF THE SUBSIDENCE CAP WHILE SUSTAINING A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THE SHIFT IN
WIND FLOW DIRECTION IS TO MANIFEST ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 800-750
HPA...WITH STEERING WINDS FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE CYCLE TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 IMPACT
IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED...WITH MEANDERING WINDS TO GENERALLY DOMINATE
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

AT LOW LEVELS THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS IS A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT IS TO LAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
BROAD POLAR TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN A COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN AND A
POLAR FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-CUBA...THAT STRENGTHENS INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 30-36 HRS. THE FRONT IS TO THEN TRAIL INTO
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA/THE YUCATAN BY 36-42 HRS. BY 48-60 HRS
THE SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...TRAILING
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
SIMULTANEOUSLY...A SECONDARY FRONT MAKES A BEELINE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS-CUBA BETWEEN 48-72 HRS...TO THEN REPLACE/REINFORCE THE OLD
BOUNDARY OVER HISPANIOLA-CARIBBEAN. A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE
ASSOCIATES WITH THIS FEATURE...TRAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA. THE SHEAR LINE IS TO
MEANDER EAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO THROUGH 78-84
HRS...WHILE TRAILING END REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN-WESTERN PANAMA/COSTA RICA. FURTHERMORE...UNDER INFLUENCE
OF BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AN INDUCED/PREFRONTAL
TROUGH IS TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEAN AXIS
IS TO EXTEND NORTH FROM COLOMBIA TO JAMAICA/HAITI.

SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO WANE DURING THE DAY.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE FRONT/SHEAR LINE...WILL ALLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WHILE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO PANAMA/COSTA RICA. THE BROAD POLAR TROUGH IS
TO ALSO SUSTAIN A COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY. THIS INCREASES THROUGH 72-84
HRS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ON
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA. ACROSS HONDURAS...AS THE
BROAD TROUGH AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST SUSTAINS A LONG FETCH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY.
BY 48-60 HRS THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE BASIN. ACROSS
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA THE SHEAR LINE CONFLUENCE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION CLUSTERING ACROSS CARIBBEAN PLAINS/
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF COSTA RICA TO WESTERN PANAMA AND THE ISLANDS
OF SAN ANDRES/NEW PROVIDENCE. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY THROUGH 48
HRS...AND 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY AT 60-84 HRS.

THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO
MODULATE/DRAW THE ATLANTIC ITCZ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. AS THE TROUGH PERSISTS...THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...TO
ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
TRINIDAD-TOBAGO-GRENADINES...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY THROUGH 36-48 HRS. OTHER
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST IS TO BUILD ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS TO
NORTHERN VENEZUELA/LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON THE ANDEAN REGION OF
COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY. THROUGH 72 HRS THIS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

[Macrocane]

The temperature in Central America on November 19, 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.2°C (54.0°F) Coldest since April 25, 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.7°C (33.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 15.7°C (60.3°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 11, 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.0°C (59.0°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 1, 2011
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.8°C (47.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.5°C (61.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.4°C (43.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 18.4°C (65.1°F) Warmest since september 10

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Consejo Shores, Belize 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29.0°C (84.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.7°C (83.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.6°C (94.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.0°C (48.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.5°C (90.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.5°C (76.1°F)

Strongest Wind Gust:

Belize city, Belize 29 km/h (18 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 33 km/h (21 mph)
Ishuatán, El Salvador 44 km/h (28 mph)
Nueva Ocotepque, Honduras 38 km/h (24 mph)
Managua, Nicaragua 37 km/h (23 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 77 km/h (48 mph)
Panama city, Panama 26 km/h (16 mph)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No change from the wet pattern for PR in the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST WED NOV 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE AND GENERALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO INDICATED A
CONVERGENCE ZONE PREVAILING OVER PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS MAINTAINING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CONDITIONS LOOKS WETTER FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF MORE THAN 2.0
INCHES...THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB BETWEEN 330-335K AND GOOD
VENTILATION ALOFT AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW BETWEEN 0-3KM
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY. ALL THESE
FACTORS PROMISE TO MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON...AND GOOD EPISODES OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOILS ARE SATURATED AND RIVERS
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO ARE RUNNING AT
HIGH LEVELS DUE TO PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND
THE NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WEDNESDAY...WHEN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...RIPPLES IN LLVL TROUGH ACROSS USVI BRING SHRA...ISOLD
TSRA AND VRB WINDS TO FA. NW FLOW OVR PUERTO RICO WILL SHIFT TO NE
AFT 21/18Z. ISOLD SHRA OVR PR WILL CONT TIL 21/17Z...THEN SHRA/TSRA
WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
ISLAND TO NE CORNER WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR...WHICH WILL BE GENLY BRIEF AT TAF SITES TJSJ...TJBQ AND
TJMZ. HEAVIEST SHRA BTWN USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...RETURNING AFT
22/00Z. LLVL WINDS NW UP THROUGH 10 KFT NW OF A LINE NE-SW 20 NM SE
OF TISX...BECMG VRBL AFT 21/18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 50 30 70 20
STT 86 75 86 79 / 30 30 40 20

[cycloneye]

November 21 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 21 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy over eastern parishes, mainly fair elsewhere.

Afternoon: Mainly fair, except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 5 knots (6 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:16 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:21 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:22 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
224 PM AST WED NOV 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US WILL DEEPEN OVR THE
NEXT 24 HRS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL SUPPORT SFC
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WITH A FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SAT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHEARLINE CONFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. ACTUAL FRONT/DEWPOINT
DISCONTINUITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY JUST NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA SAT AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE
BEHIND PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF AXIS.

RIDGE THEN BUILDS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS MON WITH IMPROVING
WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE
UNDER LONG FETCH NORTHEASTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH
SOME VCTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL THE TERMINAL IN PR AND USVI.
CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER 21/22Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THU NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT
THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUN. SMALL CRAFT MAY BECOME NECESSARY SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 84 / 30 70 10 50
STT 78 80 78 80 / 50 50 20 20

[Macrocane]

I've updated the Central American cold surges thread with the observations from the 4th event of the season
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&start=80 I still have not posted the observations of the latest event wich has been the coldest so far.

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1224 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012

LAST NO AMENDS...NEXT TO BE ISSUED ON NOVEMBER 26.

DISCUSSION FROM NOV 21/00UTC: ACROSS MEXICO...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS
INITIALIZED ALONG 105-100W WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE IS
SUSTAINING A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF
MEXICO WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DOTTING THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROUGH. AT LOW LEVELS...LONG
FETCH NORTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A
HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI. THESE ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
VERACRUZ/TABASCO AND WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THROUGH 36 HRS GRADUALLY DECREASING
AFTERWARDS. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE CYCLE
WHILE TROUGH BROADENS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL INDUCE
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER
TAMAULIPAS BY LATE CYCLE. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...EXPECTING
AN ENHANCEMENT IN CONVECTION BY 60-84 HRS TO PRODUCE 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ACROSS TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...WEATHER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD POLAR TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS AND SHEAR LINE AT LOW-LEVELS.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH 24 HRS
TO CENTER LONG 75W-70W AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N BY 48 HRS...TO THEN
START PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST. TO THE SOUTH...A RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE WINDWARD ISLES. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA LEADING TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION WHILE
SOME EROSION WILL PERSIST ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO. AT
LOW-LEVELS...TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN A PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTIVE
PATTERN AND COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION. ONE IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA-JAMAICA-EASTERN HONDURAS BY 24
HRS TO THEN WEAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-CENTRAL
HAITI-SAN ANDRES/NUEVA PROVIDENCIA BY 48-60 HRS. A NEW AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS-NORTHERN/CENTRAL CUBA BY 24HRS...TO THE TURKS
AND CAICOS-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-CAYMAN ISLANDS-QUINTANA ROO BY 48
HRS...TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA-JAMAICA-CENTRAL NICARAGUA BY 72 HRS
MERGING WITH THE FORMER. IT WILL THEN STALL JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA-EASTERN NICARAGUA BY 96 HRS. A FRONTAL
SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATES WITH THESE FEATURES...AND WILL TRAIL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA. THE SHEAR LINE
WILL ALSO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA AFTER 84-96
HRS LEADING TO ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN SLOPES. FURTHERMORE...UNDER INFLUENCE OF
BROAD TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AN INDUCED/PREFRONTAL TROUGH
IS TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEAN AXIS IS TO
EXTEND NORTH FROM COLOMBIA TO JAMAICA/HAITI.

ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE LONG FETCH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH OROGRAPHY TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THROUGH 36 HRS...AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE BASIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM BY 60-84 HRS UNDER DRIER AIR MASS.
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA...COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL
FAVOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. ACROSS HISPANIOLA EXPECTING MOST ACTIVE
BY 42-60 HRS WHEN DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY AS THEY SLOWLY PROGRESS
TO THE NORTHEAST. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...EXPECTING DIURNAL STORMS TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. AFTER A DECREASE ON DAY
02...CONVECTION IS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY 60-84 HRS TO PRODUCE
SIMILAR AMOUNTS.

OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION ACROSS CARIBBEAN PLAINS/CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF COSTA
RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. AS FRONT PUSHES FROM THE NORTH...THE
SHEAR LINE WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTHWARDS INTO WESTERN PANAMA ON
DAYS 02 AND 03...TO START RETROGRESSING AGAIN INTO SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA ON DAY 04. EXPECTING HEAVIEST TO FOLLOW SHEAR LINE/OROGRAPHIC
CONVERGENCE LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-150MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. THESE ARE TO DECREASE TO 15-30MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY BY 36-84 HRS. NOTE THAT AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE AFTERWARDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC ITCZ WILL CONTINUE MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS
HOWEVER IN PLACE...LIMITING CONVECTION TO MOSTLY SHALLOW CELLS.
STILL...CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY
THROUGH 60 HRS. A SURGE IN THE EASTERLIES WILL TRANSPORT A MUCH
MOISTER AIR MASS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN
GUIANAS BY 60-72 HRS...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA/SOUTHERN
WINDWARDS BY 72-84 HRS...AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA BY 96
HRS LEADING TO A SHARP INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS. ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHERN GUIANAS EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS TO INCREASE
AFTERWARDS. ACROSS COLOMBIA...EXPECT THE MOST ACTIVE ACROSS THE
CHOCO/VALLE DEL CAUCA/EJE CAFETERO AND ACROSS LAKE
MARACAIBO...WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ANDES.
EXPECTING A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS
DAYS LEADING TO AMOUNTS IN THE ORDER OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.

[Macrocane]

FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IN CENTRAL AMERICA

The coldest temperature in Central America since March was registered on November 20, 2012 in Quetzaltenango it was also the first freeze of the season in the region. The only countries with above normal lows in the last couple of days have been Costa Rica and Panama, the other countries have been below normal The temperatures on November 20, 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 10.4°C (50.7°F) Coldest since January 6, 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -3.6°C (25.5°F) Coldest IN CENTRAL AMERICA since March 2, 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 14.4°C (57.9°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 2, 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.4°C (59.7°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 1, 2011
Las Pilas, El Salvador 5.0°C (41.0°F) Coldest since January 6, 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F) Coldest since January 10, 2012
Jinotega, Nicaragua 17°C (63°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.0°C (44.6°F) Warmest since June 20, 2012
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.6°C (63.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 29.0°C (84.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21.2°C (69.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.4°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 30.0°C (84.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.4°C (83.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.4°C (68.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.9°C (94.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (77°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 17°C (64°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 23.5°C (75.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.3°C (48.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.6°C (90.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 29.7°C (88.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.6°C (76.1°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning and happy Thanksgiving day to all in the Caribbean and in Central America.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST THU NOV 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR TODAY...AS THE
AREA CONTINUES UNDER A PERSISTENT ELONGATED AREA OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEAST OVER
PUERTO RICO...AND EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELITE IMAGES
INDICATED THIS FEATURE IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...BUT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ACTIVE AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. BY FRIDAY...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED DRIER AIR AT MID LEVEL
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION. THETA-E VALUES AT
700MB ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 340K TODAY...TO NEAR 325 BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE WINDS...AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY A FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
FEATURE...WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WHEN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING ON MONDAY...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES TOTAL CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...SOME
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. PEOPLE LIVING ACROSS THESE
AREAS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND
BE READY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED IN YOUR AREA. HAPPY THANKSGIVING DAY TO ALL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CONDS CONT THRU MORNING FOR STT/STX IN
REGENERATING SHRA. XPCT PR AND NCM/KPK TAF SITES TO BE VFR AND CLR
OF SHRA TIL LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. VRY WEAK SOUTH FLOW IMPLIES
MOST SHRA/TSRA TO BE ON NORTH SIDE OF PR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
LLVL WIND TO FL150 S TO SW 5-15 KT THRU TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 75 / 70 10 50 60
STT 87 76 85 76 / 50 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

November 22 Jamaica forecast.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

November 22 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy and cool over northern parishes, mainly fair elsewhere.

Afternoon: Generally fair and cool especially over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair and cool.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84F)     Low: 22C (71F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:17 a.m.
 5:30 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:22 a.m.
 5:35 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:23 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.