Florida Weather

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: I know and am well aware of the severe potential down your way by Friday. We have had plenty of rain and even severe weather at times up here in Jax with this active pattern. I was just responding to floridasun's post about how cold will it be in the wake of this system.

Well. it looks like it finally will be your turn all down in South Florida for potential severe weather and heavy rain. Good. We have had more than enough of that up here. I definitely am not wanting any severe weather to occur of course.

Could get squally...bring it on!!

[Patrick99]

I'd like to see some severe storms....I won't get my hopes up though. Been burned too many times by "better dynamics further north and offshore." I'd take some thunder, period. It seems to be pretty rare to get a good squall line into Miami during the winter months.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Melbourne disco

Tue night-Thu...This period will start with a high pressure over mid-
Atlantic states, stretching towards the southeast US and Florida,
keeping fair weather conditions through the night. Light winds from
the N to NNE will turn over waters from the E as the high shifts
east. Lows will range from the mid 40s to near 50 for north of I-4
and interior areas while across the Space and Treasure Coast temps
will drop to the mid to upper 50s. Wed morning could start as a nice
day, with high clouds and light winds from the east.

As Wed progresses, the high will reach the western Atlantic waters
and a multi-layer trough will deepen as it moves towards the central
US. This trough will dig south from Canada towards the western Gulf
of Mexico with a surface low developing late Wed into Thu night over
eastern Texas. Locally, the pressure gradient will feel the
approaching low and it will increase locally, causing for winds to
start picking up Wed night. A warm front will also move north across
FL, bringing moisture towards the FL peninsula from the Gulf, and
instability will start to increase over the local area. The weather
pattern will be complex for FL, as the low pressure moves towards
the southeast US on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center already
has our area under a 15% chance of risk of severe weather on Day 4,
which is uncommon to have this level of confidence this far in
time. But the main global models (ie GFS and Euro) have been
consistent in their solution and close to each other. The forecast
is already high for the Wed night and Thu period, with POPs of
60-70% and 90% respectively and chance for thunderstorms. Based
on the current forecast, strong to damaging winds, heavy rain and
tornadoes will be possible for east central Florida, mainly on
Thursday. As the day gets closer, a better timing for these
impacts will be provided.

[gatorcane]

This system looks potent for sure. The question is just how far south the best dynamics make it. Looks like the GFS has the strongest squalls down to Lake O area but not really down into metro SE Florida. I could see this outcome with the strongest storms over SW and South-Central Florida and up into Central Florida but not quite making it down to into deep South Florida. Nonetheless this system could bring the highest rain totals we have seen in a while here with a decent squal line pushing through and the wind profile looks impressive with the NWS forecasting 36mph wind gusts in Boca Raton on Friday.

[northjaxpro]

Significant weather and even severe weather looks more more a certainty for South Florida on Thursday.afternoon amd evening. Also, could see some into Friday morning as well just ahead of this dynamic sysyem.

A very impressive, dynamic southern stream shortwave will impact the entire peninsula Thursday-Friday evening.The latest GFS has 500mb heights as low as 540 down into the Northeast GOM by Thursday evening.. That is quite an extremely deep, core core Upper shortwave! The pressure gradient with this system is going to be .really something. The wind looks to be well above galet o storm force across the Gulf of Mexico. Wind looks to gust up to 30mph + across much of peninsula, especially Thursday night into Friday.

[psyclone]

I would not be shocked if some coastal flooding hazard/beach erosion issues take place on the west coast with strong onshore winds and big swells. This is going to be a multifaceted event with severe potential/heavy rain and flood potential and coastal water action. a noteworthy cold season event is certainly possible depending on how this evolves. It definitely has my interest...as does the prospects of nice weather as we head toward Christmas...and a hopefully delightfully warm and dry pattern thereafter.

[TheStormExpert]

We're lucking out that there will be little to no snowpack up north with this upcoming storm system and front as that would have likely allowed temperatures to tumble into the 30's into S.FL.

As for the storm system it looks as if the highest rainfall totals will be centered from a line near Fort Myers to the Treasure Coast going by the GFS, and from a line just north of Tampa along the Big Bend region to Jacksonville if you go by the Euro. It'll be interesting to see what we manage to get her in S.FL as the Miami NWS Offices' forecast discussion is calling for the best dynamics to be further south than the previous two fronts leading to the threat for straight-line wind and tornado activity on Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours. There will also be a rare minor risk of Extratropical Surge along the Gulf
coast Thursday and Friday.

Enjoy the cooler weather as that will likely be the last front to pass through the region for the rest of 2018! Looks like we will begin to torch after Christmas for the foreseeable future.

[SFLcane]

Its gonna blow SFL...55 kt 850 mb thu 23z / by gfs 06Z ! I would not be surprised to see some gusts to 40 mph across the mainland

[SFLcane]

SPC...

Strong mid-level flow is forecast to dig southeast across TX into
the southern Gulf basin during the day3 period. This process will
ensure significant deepening of a larger trough that will translate
east across MS Valley into the southeastern US/eastern Gulf of
Mexico by Friday morning. As this trough evolves, low-mid level
trajectories will become increasingly favorable for higher theta-e
air mass to advance north across the Caribbean into the southern FL
Peninsula where near 70F surface dew points are likely to return.
This air-mass recovery is expected to aid significant convection
across the eastern Gulf basin early in the period along a pronounced
surface front where strong large-scale forcing for ascent will be
maximized. Very strong shear will develop across FL ahead of the
short wave which will encourage organized convection. Frontal
convection will likely be linear in nature, but embedded supercells
are expected. There is some concern that isolated pre-frontal
supercells may also develop within an increasing warm advection
regime over the Peninsula. If moisture/instability returns to FL as
currently forecast, all severe hazards may be noted with this
activity given the strength and geometry of this evolving trough.

[Patrick99]

Some interesting wording in NWS Miami's discussion this morning. They mention that dynamics and instability may actually get far enough south to give us a real shot at a severe squall line. I'll believe it when I see it, but they seem more confident than the usual lukewarm "chance of thunderstorms" wording we often get with frontal passages.

Assuming all of this starts tomorrow with the warm front lifting northward as predicted, the weather is going to have to change quite a lot in a pretty short time frame to get there. A little chilly this AM, with a light drainage flow and clear skies. Just by looking outside, you certainly wouldn't think inclement weather is imminent within 36 hours.

[SFLcane]

GFS shows gust to 42-48 mph across the mainland...Its certainly all over the models so lets see if we get into a high wind advisory.

[Patrick99]

GFS shows gust to 42-48 mph across the mainland...Its certainly all over the models so lets see if we get into a high wind advisory.

Wow, with that kind of wind I might have to seriously consider bringing the chairs in off the balcony.

[gatorcane]

Best dynamics still look to be just north of metro SE florida over the Lake O region and down into Central/NW Palm Beach County perhaps and extending back into the Ft. Myers areas of SW Florida and up through Central Florida. Still looking like a solid squall line will swing through metro SE Florida including Broward and Miami-Dade with high wind gusts but from a severe weather perspective it looks like the focal point would be just to our north and west - too close for comfort this go around. We'll see as we get closer, 12Z GFS running now - interesting weather ahead for sure.

Update: 12Z GFS looks to have shifted the best dynamics a bit away from metro SE Florida, now no longer in Palm Beach county even, is this a trend or just one run?

[Bocadude85]

Best dynamics still look to be just north of metro SE florida over the Lake O region and down into Central/NW Palm Beach County perhaps and extending back into the Ft. Myers areas of SW Florida and up through Central Florida. Still looking like a solid squall line will swing through metro SE Florida including Broward and Miami-Dade with high wind gusts but from a severe weather perspective it looks like the focal point would be just to our north and west - too close for comfort this go around. We'll see as we get closer, 12Z GFS running now - interesting weather ahead for sure.

Update: 12Z GFS looks to have shifted the best dynamics a bit away from metro SE Florida, now no longer in Palm Beach county even, is this a trend or just one run?
https://i.postimg.cc/wM9sQBcc/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-10.png
https://i.postimg.cc/8PRTVHG5/gfs-apcpn-seus-13.png

Im not so sure S. FL will escape the severe weather this time, a lot of past S.Fla tornado outbreaks had similar conditions as being forecast by the models, I’m thinking we are going to see discrete supercells forming out ahead of the main squall line over the SW coast/Everglades heading northeast towards the SE metro area.

[chaser1]

Pretty impressive for a potent December full latitude squall line that most of Florida will feel the affects from. I'd guess that 40 mph gusts will be experienced in a good number of locals throughout South and Central Florida. I"d bet there's gonna be plenty of pesky small branch debris here in Central Florida, with so many Water Oaks that seem to succumb to heavy rain and wind. S.W. Coast from Cape Coral north to around Tampa sure seem poised to see some beach erosion between Thursday and Friday. Ft. Myers area looks to have their high tides late Wednesday night (1:00 Thursday a.m.) and again about 3:00 p.m. on Thursday. Tide and wave action could be impressive there.

No doubt there'll be Lake Wind Advisories over most of Florida, Gale Warnings for East and West Coast waters, W. Coast Flood Watchs/Warnings, Severe Storm Watches for at least 2/3 of the State, Tornado Watch boxes, and one or two Partridge in a Pear dislodgings LOL. I guess if I had to take my pick for this event's nastiest weather, i'd guess points between Ft. Myers/Sarasota and Ft. Lauderdale to Melbourne. Tornadoes? I think doubtful but then again that doesn't detract from the potential of a good deal of Straight Line Wind damage.

Regardless of this event not tapping into actual Arctic air, I'd guess that between the overcast conditions, backside low advection, and especially the wind.... Friday is gonna look and feel a lot like Winter for much of Florida. The strength of this southern stream system is pretty impressive. Certainly more common for Florida during El Nino type years. Makes me think that January and February are gonna really have a couple "duzzies" to look forward to. Bring the kids - fun for the whole family LOL!

[chaser1]

Best dynamics still look to be just north of metro SE florida over the Lake O region and down into Central/NW Palm Beach County perhaps and extending back into the Ft. Myers areas of SW Florida and up through Central Florida. Still looking like a solid squall line will swing through metro SE Florida including Broward and Miami-Dade with high wind gusts but from a severe weather perspective it looks like the focal point would be just to our north and west - too close for comfort this go around. We'll see as we get closer, 12Z GFS running now - interesting weather ahead for sure.

Update: 12Z GFS looks to have shifted the best dynamics a bit away from metro SE Florida, now no longer in Palm Beach county even, is this a trend or just one run?
https://i.postimg.cc/wM9sQBcc/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-seus-10.png
https://i.postimg.cc/8PRTVHG5/gfs-apcpn-seus-13.png

Im not so sure S. FL will escape the severe weather this time, a lot of past S.Fla tornado outbreaks had similar conditions as being forecast by the models, I’m thinking we are going to see discrete supercells forming over the SW coast/Everglades heading northeast towards the SE metro area.

I think you're right regarding the severe weather risk in S. Florida. The only thing I question is whether severe storm/wind impact will occur much anywhere away from the actual squall line itself. Just seems to me that the winds might not be backed enough (more east to southeast ahead of the front) to be a cause for low level convergence and the formation of discrete convective cells ahead of the squall line. Looks to me like there's such a deep southerly low to mid layer flow, that most/all severe weather would seem poised to occur in cells buzzing NNE along and within the squall line itself? Regardless whether straight line winds OR any breakout of tornadoes there sure seems to be a very real risk for damaging conditions.

[SFLcane]

Impressive wind fields across SFL.. Definitely a severe wx threat. It will be windy Thursday, but maybe even windier Friday as dry air tries to mix down stronger winds aloft.

[chaser1]

Impressive wind fields across SFL.. Definitely a severe wx threat. It will be windy Thursday, but maybe even windier Friday as dry air tries to mix down stronger winds aloft.

If it weren't for my wanting to stay put and watch conditions unfold here in the Orlando area, i'd sure love to be on the coast around Venice to watch the surf and squalls move in! Those strong winds and crazy surf would sure make for some fun shell and sharks tooth hunting. Hard to guess exactly where the worst weather will occur but if I were offered a free $100 bet on any ONE SPOT for a tornadic risk this Thursday, I suppose I'd go with Sebring, Fl. at 7:05 p.m.

[SFLcane]

Are we going through a tropical storm or what is going on here?

[FlaWeatherDude]

After a chilly weekend(21-23) it looks likey Christmas is shaping up to be nice with low humidity but by next Thusday or so we torch(though that might change). I hope there will be intense lightning with loud-cracking thunder widespread with this storm system. Looks more promising then the previous one's.