Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

December 21 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Cold front over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy.

Afternoon: Expect partly cloudy conditions with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and cool.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:34 a.m.
 5:37 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:39 a.m.
 5:42 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:40 a.m.
 5:43 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION SATURDAY AND THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED AN
AREA OF MOISTURE JUST ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST
SATURDAY. MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A MORE DRIER AIR MASS WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL NOT BE
COMPLETELY DRY OR CLOUD FREE...AS A TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN OF
PASSING BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT SHRA WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE PARTS OF THE
FLYING AREA. SHWRS WILL CLUSTER MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH
SECTIONS OF PR AND USVI. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS MAY OCCUR
IN PASSING SHRA ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH
SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND THEN THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ON SATURDAY...WITH THESE
SWELLS THEN LINGERING ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 83 / 40 40 10 10
STT 72 84 72 84 / 20 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Typical weather for this time of year will prevail for PR/VI in the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
625 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY TODAY...BUT HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING AS A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOCAL REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND THEN LINGERS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT A PRETTY TYPICAL
WINTER PATTERN LOCALLY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGER ACROSS THE FA AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...MODELS
ARE NOW INDICATING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE...
THIS MOISTURE WILL NEVER MOVE VERY FAR AWAY...BEFORE MOVING BACK
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SO...EXPECT CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS...WITH
BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING
SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUD AND SHOWER AREAS...GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD
NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY...PEAK TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE
SWELLS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT OR WILL GO INTO EFFECT
LATER THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

ADDITIONALLY...THESE SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF THESE ISLANDS THROUGH 11 AM AST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 72 / 40 40 40 20
STT 84 72 84 74 / 30 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

December 22 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

A cold front now over the central Caribbean will influence weather conditions across the region over the next day or two.

This will result in cool conditions with occasional showers mainly over northern parishes.

Significant Feature: Cold front over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy and cool.

Afternoon: Windy with occasional showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, windy and cool.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 20 knots (24 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84F)     Low: 22C (71F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:34 a.m.
 5:38 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:39 a.m.
 5:43 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:40 a.m.
 5:44 p.m.
 

 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST SAT DEC 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION
TONIGHT AND THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A
LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE JUST ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS
THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH FEW OF
THEM AFFECTING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS MOVED RAPIDLY WESTWARD LEAVING MINIMAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. THIS TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER PATTERN...TYPICAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER...WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT TONITE XCP BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA. VFR ON
SUNDAY AND EVEN FEWER SHRA. LLVL WIND ENE 5-18 KT BLO FL090 THEN W
AND INCR ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD
NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS EVENING...PEAK TONIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING.
THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS.

ADDITIONALLY...THESE SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF THESE ISLANDS THROUGH 11 AM AST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 81 72 81 / 40 40 20 20
STT 71 85 73 84 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
617 AM AST SUN DEC 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS OR
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND PROBABLY LINGER AT MID LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STILL EXPECT A PRETTY
TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN LOCALLY. MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR AND ACROSS
THE FA AT THIS TIME...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH AN
OVERALL DRYING AND STABILIZING OF THE LOCAL AIR MASS IS
INDICATED...THIS WILL BE A RATHER SLOW PROCESS. SO...AS MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND TROUGHINESS LINGERS NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA...EXPECT CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS...WITH BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS.
OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUD AND SHOWER AREAS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYER AT
FL100 WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA THE REST OF TODAY.
SHRA POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PR LATE TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD
NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE...THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

ADDITIONALLY...THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PRODUCING LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF THESE ISLANDS THROUGH 11 AM AST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 73 / 40 30 30 30
STT 85 73 84 74 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

December 23rd Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

 
A cold front over the central Caribbean will continue to influence weather conditions across the region over the next day or two.

This will result in cool and windy conditions with occasional showers mainly over northern parishes.

Significant Feature: Cold front over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy and cool.

Afternoon: Cooland windy with occasional showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, windy and cool.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 20 knots (24 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:35 a.m.
 5:38 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:40 a.m.
 5:43 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:41 a.m.
 5:44 p.m.
 


 


[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. A mainly good weather pattern will prevail this week in the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST SUN DEC 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS......BASE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE FILLING AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL CREATE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND INCREASE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT ON MONDAY AND THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. AT LOW LEVELS...COLD
FRONTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A LIGHT EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND SO FAR. EXPECTED THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES
TO BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECT A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH COOLER AIR AND OVERALL STABLE
AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS EACH DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS OVER SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. PASSING EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN-OVC CLOUD LAYER AT FL100 WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA AROUND TNCM/TKPK THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS SOME SHRA ACTIVITY. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
UNTIL 24/00Z. WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING SHRA ACTIVITY
BECOMING SCATTERED THROUGH THE NIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY TIST...TJSJ...
AND TJBQ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 72 83 / 30 30 30 30
STT 72 85 75 86 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Sad news on this Christmas period as a tourist that was surfing drowned in Rincon.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 13981.html

Tourist drowns surfing at Rincon.The young man was in Maria Beach.

The corpse of a young tourist was found the morning of today, Sunday, floating next to his table of "surfing" on a beach in Rincon.According to a report from the police, the young man, identified as Dylan Smith, aged 23 and who resided in New York, practiced the surfing on playa Maria, located in the neighborhood tips, when at about 10: 45 a.m., drowned.A citizen noticed the emergency, Smith attended and led him to the shore. There, Dr. Jonathan Guerra Rodríguez, who was on the beach, tried to give him first aid, but the young man had already died.Agent Dennis Morales and Rodriguez Prosecutor initiated a search.According to preliminary information, Smith shared with relatives in a residence of beach owned by his parents, who are in the United States.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather is expected in PR and rest of NE Caribbean islands for today and on Christmas day. For all of our Caribbean and CentralAmerican friends,have a happy holiday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST MON DEC 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEAST. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LINGER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STILL FORESEE LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE AS A PRETTY TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN CONTINUES
LOCALLY. A DRIER AIR MASS HAS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ENCOMPASSED
THE FA AND HAS PROVIDED A NICE START TO CHRISTMAS EVE AND EXPECT
MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE TODAY.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR THE FA AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO BE THE RULE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS INDICATED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...AS BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF THESE
CLOUD AND SHOWER AREAS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS FROM ALL OF US HERE AT YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL MAINLY AT AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LONG PERIOD NORTH
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

ALSO...THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PRODUCING LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF THESE ISLANDS UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 84 74 / 20 30 30 10
STT 85 75 86 75 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

December 24 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Cold front over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy and cool.

Afternoon: Cool and windy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy and cool.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:35 a.m.
 5:39 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:40 a.m.
 5:44 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:41 a.m.
 5:45 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. I will take the day off on Christmas day to be with my family. I will be back on the 26th so I say happy holidays to all of our friends in the Caribbean and CentralAmerica.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST MON DEC 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...REMNANT FRONT STALLED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS
NORTHEAST FROM THERE...NOW SLOWLY DISSIPATING AND ALLOWING WINDS
OVER PR/USVI TO UNDERGO VEERING AND LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE SOUTH
OF EAST DUE TO ARRIVE EARLY TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IN THE CARIBBEAN TO INCH NORTHWARD NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THEY ARE DOING NOW. BUT DEVELOPING STRONG SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST U.S. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL INDUCE A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE NORTH OF PR/USVI AROUND 30N. THIS WILL DRIVE DRY AIR BACK
SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS FORECAST REGION BY THU.

BOOSTED POPS A LITTLE TUE/WED AFTERNOONS AND KEPT THEM MAINLY
INLAND...BUT STILL NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED.
TYPICAL SHALLOW/NIGHTTIME SHOWERS NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS TO BE AT
WINDWARD/EASTERN PR. CONSERVATIVELY DECREASED POPS THU-SAT FOR
THE AFTERNOONS SINCE MOISTURE WILL DROP OFF AGAIN. BUT WARM
CONDITIONS AND LIMITED CAPPING MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS THAN
OCCURRED TODAY.

HEAVY SURF ON ATLANTIC SIDE OF ISLANDS IS SLOWLY DECREASING AND
ADVISORY IS ON TRACK TO END THIS EVENING. BUT FOR NOW...DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS STILL OUT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
WILL PREVAIL MAINLY AT AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 30 30 10 10
STT 74 85 76 86 / 20 20 10 20

[msbee]

[Macrocane]

Merry Christmas! ¡Feliz Navidad! Joyeux Noël! Many blessings to all of our Caribbean and Central American family.

This week has been a very very cold one for Central America , I will have more observations tomorrow, for now here's an update on the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations of the event that affected Central America from December 11 to 17: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2294338#p2294338

[cycloneye]

Good morning. In general,good weather will prevail for the rest of this week in the NE Caribbean with only a few showers but mainly the sun will prevail.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST WED DEC 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WITH LONGWAVE
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVR THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF/WINTER STORM OVER
THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME EROSION OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TODAY TO GENERATE SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH
HILLS. STABILITY INDICES ARE A BIT MORE STABLE TODAY THAN YDAY SO
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ANY T-STORMS TODAY. NEXT S/WV TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE SO EXPECT TO SEE MUCH MORE SHRA ACTIVITY OVR WATER TONIGHT
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ON RADAR. MOISTURE ERODES FURTHER ON THU
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ONE LAST S/WV
TROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE LATTER ONLY LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS LOW LEVELS BECOME INCREASINGLY DRY AND LOW
LEVEL STABILITY INCREASES.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE THEN DEVELOPS SAT BEHIND EXITING
S/WV TROUGH AND BUILDING LONGWAVE RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SHARP DRYING AND PLUMMETING OF PWAT/RH VALUES.
EXPECT VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER SAT WITH MORE OF A FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AS PWAT VALUES DROP TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
LONGWAVE RIDGE THEN ESTABLISHES OVR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THINGS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT TJMZ TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJMZ WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
16Z...WITH TEMPO MFVR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND VCNTY SHOWERS
26/16Z-26/21Z. THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY WITH SEAS
REMAINING 3-5 FT THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 73 / 10 0 10 20
STT 84 76 85 76 / 10 30 10 10

&&

[cycloneye]

December 26 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:36 a.m.
 5:40 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:41 a.m.
 5:45 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:42 a.m.
 5:46 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST WED DEC 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...ALTERNATING TROUGHS AND RIDGES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONSTANT UNTIL FRIDAY...DECREASING FOR THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSLTY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE GOES
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TO UNDER AN INCH. IN ADDITION...OTHER
INSTABILITY INDEXES GO DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ACCORDING TO THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...CLOUDINESS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS. A FEW PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT MAINLY TIST AND TJSJ BUT VCSH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TISX AND TJBQ. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING AFTER 27/12Z TO ABOUT 10 TO 15
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS FOR WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 73 83 / 0 30 20 10
STT 75 85 75 86 / 30 30 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail thru the weekend and possibly thru the early next week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST THU DEC 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. GFS COMPUTER IS VERY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING THIS
MOISTURE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND GETTING VERY DRY BY SATURDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP TO LESS
THAN 0.75 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON....WITH THETAE VALUES AT
700MB ALSO DECREASING...WITH VALUES NEAR 314K...WHICH ARE REALLY
LOW VALUES HERE IN THE TROPICS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH NEXT WEEK...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 73 / 30 20 20 20
STT 84 74 86 73 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

December 27 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:37 a.m.
 5:40 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:42 a.m.
 5:45 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:43 a.m.
 5:46 p.m.
 


[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 PM EST THU DEC 27 2012

DISCUSSION FROM DEC 27/00UTC: DEEP POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
USA CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THROUGH 24 HRS THE
TROUGH IS TO PULL ACROSS 66W/67W...CROSSING 55W BY 48 HRS. AT LOW
LEVELS IT SUSTAINS A SURFACE FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-WESTERN CUBA/NORTHERN YUCATAN EARLY IN THE
CYCLE. THE FRONT IS TO THEN STALL AS IT IS TO QUICKLY LOSE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. BY 36-48 HRS IT WILL START TO RETROGRESS INTO
SOUTHERN FLORIDA/THE GULF...WITH AXIS TO THEN DISSIPATE/WEAKEN BY
54-60 HRS. LIGHT FRONTAL CONVECTION IS TO AFFECT THE
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EARLY IN THE CYCLE.

AS THE POLAR TROUGH PULLS AWAY...CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAS STARTED TO STRENGTHEN. THE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS FARTHER TO THE WEST.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE TRADE WIND CAP ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN IS ALSO FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. AS A RESULT...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY.
LOW PWAT CONDITIONS ARE THEN TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. AT LOW
LEVELS...AN 850 HPA RIDGE IS TO EXTEND EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS TO SUSTAIN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHILE ALSO FAVORING BRISK EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING
WINDS OF 20-25KT TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVER
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS OF 35-40KT. IN
RESPONSE TO THE CHANGING WEATHER SCENARIO...THE GLOBAL MODELS
RAPIDLY TREND TOWARDS MILDER/DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE CYCLE TO
QUICKLY BECOME MORE SPARSE AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES. TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS IN EASTERN NICARAGUA IS TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY
THROUGH 36 HRS. THROUGH 48 HRS THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...THEN WANE LATER IN THE CYCLE.

THE NEXT POLAR TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN USA THROUGH 30/36
HRS...AND QUICKLY PULLS ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO TEXAS BY 48-60 HRS. BY
72 HRS...AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS THE EASTERN USA...IT IS TO START
LIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES OF MEXICO BY 42/48 HRS...WITH
FRONT TO QUICKLY SURGE ACROSS THE GULF TO SOUTHERN MEXICO BY 72
HRS. AT 84-96 HRS IT IS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...TRAILING ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-35KT ARE TO ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF...WITH A TEHUANTEPECER WIND
OF 40-55KT TO ESTABLISH BETWEEN 60-96 HRS. THE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE TO SUSTAIN TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS
TABASCO-NORTHERN CHIAPAS TO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/NORTHERN OAXACA. IN
THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ IS TO MEANDER INLAND ACROSS WESTERN
COLOMBIA JUST NORTH OF THE CAUCA VALLEY...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ANDEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA. OVER NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. OVER SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA...TO AFFECT THE CAUCA AND
CAUCA VALLEY...INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THROUGH 48 HRS THIS IS TO INCREASE TO
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CHOCO. AS IT PERSISTS...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS TO
INTERACT WITH A TUTT/CROSS EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER BRASIL. ACROSS
FRENCH GUIANA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASING TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM BY 60-84 HRS. OVER
SURINAME/GUYANA INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THROUGH 72 HRS...AS UPPER TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH DEEPENS...THIS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY.

ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALDAMEZ...DGOA-MARN (EL SALVADOR)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)