Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

Gfs is back on board with generous rain this weekend.

Side note Nino strengthened this week to 2.5C. Enjoy the rains the next 6-12 months because La Nina odds late next year are increasing. Spring and summer 2016 may still feel atmospheric lag and may not run rain deficits, but if the Nina does rise then late 2016 into 2017 will grow new prolonged drought.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Always the downside to Strong El nino. Seeing mets saying november will be a warm one. Any chance we get a Typhoon to recurve in the Pac around mid Nov?

[CaptinCrunch]

Good afternoon, didn't get a chance to post over the weekend so it's time to catch up. Rainfall total from this last system on the old home rain gauge came to be just under 5.5", had a few tree limbs break out the cottonwood tree but other than that all was well after the strong cell that came thru Friday afternoon. The temps this past weekend was perfect and with the clouds and wet ground it made for a nice Fall day.

Now on to Halloween weekend......

As I had foreseen early last week and even a few days before that, that Halloween weekend would be wet and chilly, and as models are indicating it should be. As for November and the hyped warmth, I think it will apply to the north and northeast parts of the country, but for the southern states it will be closer to normal or slightly above. The southern Jet is becoming more active, which will bring about a wetter cooler pattern across the south for November and even heading into December. I don't see anything like what we saw for most of October with the well above average temps and 0 rainfall. I still think this El Nino will peak out in early December and then start it's decline, so mid and late December will be a transition period before the brunt of winter kicks in early January and last at least into early March.

Of course this all IMO.....

[dhweather]

Gfs is back on board with generous rain this weekend.

Side note Nino strengthened this week to 2.5C. Enjoy the rains the next 6-12 months because La Nina odds late next year are increasing. Spring and summer 2016 may still feel atmospheric lag and may not run rain deficits, but if the Nina does rise then late 2016 into 2017 will grow new prolonged drought.

Dandy.

[dhweather]

Because we all know any model at 384 hours is deadly accurate.....

[TheProfessor]

I wish that was a snow map and not a temp map

[Ntxw]

Yeah the greatest anomalies will be found in the midwest and east. Lower heights will not be as warm relative to average across the southwest and south central US compared to our northern counterparts. It is your typical El Nino climo.

It is also continued wet pattern for us. So above normal in Nov (70s) with rains I think we will be satisfied

[wxman57]

Because we all know any model at 384 hours is deadly accurate.....


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_53.png

Music to my eyes! (whatever that means)

12Z GFS indicates about an inch of rain across Houston next Saturday. Amounts keep dropping.

[hfriverajr]

Off topic. Is it possible for admins here to reset the password on my old account (hriverajr). I have not been able to access it for a long time. Please message me.

Looks like a wet pattern for west and central Texas. Succession of troughs, closing off and moving through.

[weatherdude1108]

Gfs is back on board with generous rain this weekend.

Side note Nino strengthened this week to 2.5C. Enjoy the rains the next 6-12 months because La Nina odds late next year are increasing. Spring and summer 2016 may still feel atmospheric lag and may not run rain deficits, but if the Nina does rise then late 2016 into 2017 will grow new prolonged drought.

Dandy.

Yeah, I despise La Nina.

But, in every La Nina episode, I always look forward to the next El Nino. I'm enjoying this one! The brown landscaped areas around the area are greening up.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS lowered rain amounts across Texas considerably for next weekend. Only about an inch in the Houston area.

[weatherdude1108]

Slightly ominous long-term forecast from the EWX office:

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

OUR HAZARD FOCUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION. THE MAIN RISKS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR EVOLUTION FOR OTHER
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

BY MID-WEEK...NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK DRY FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AS THE RE-ESTABLISHING OF
MOISTURE COMMENCES. A STRONG SIGNAL ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE SUITE OF
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATES A POTENT MID-LVL TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE...ALONG SIDE BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS...WILL HELP INDUCE LEE-SIDE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS THAT WILL AID IN DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

BY MID-DAY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE
DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TO NEAR 560 DM WHICH IS ABOUT 10DM DEEPER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TROUGH THAT IMPACTED THE REGION. HOWEVER...WE
WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND VS.
THE PAST EVENT WHERE PWATS WERE UPWARDS OF 2.1-2.3" VS. THE
PROGGED 1.8-1.9` (BUT STILL GOOD). THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE
ADEQUATE ENOUGH FOR HEAVY RAIN AS SET-UP LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FORCED. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE WAVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS A POSSIBLE
DRYLINE SURGE OCCURS OR IF IT WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED EVENT LATE
FRIDAY INTO MID-DAY SATURDAY. LOOKING AT PROGGED CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS AND SOUNDINGS...HEALTHY PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN
PLACE THAT COULD SUGGEST ORGANIZATION FOR A BROKEN QLCS ALONG A
POSSIBLE DRYLINE SURGE SATURDAY MORNING TO MID-DAY. ANY
ORGANIZATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD AID IN STRONG WINDS AND
POSSIBLY OTHER HAZARDS AS A 90-100 KT JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SET-UP FOR OVERALL RAIN ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS AND SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD POSSIBILITIES.

THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BECOMES MURKY ON SUNDAY
WITH EC SLOWER THAN THE PROGRESSIVE GFS. THE UKMET AND GEM FAVOR A
SLOWER PATTERN WITH RAIN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE DRY
WEATHER IS THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT 10
POPS IN THE FORECAST WITHOUT A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER...IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...BUT ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL COOL TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH EITHER OF
THESE DISTURBANCES OR THE FRONT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR RAIN CHANCES MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...
SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND QUICKLY BRING
RICH GULF MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST AND MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BECOME CHALLENGING BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

THE GFS IS THE FASTEST TO EJECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
PLAINS. IT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES IT EAST WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THE GFS MOVES THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY...IT BRINGS WEST WINDS AND
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION...THUS ENDING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM WEST TO EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IT ENDS THE PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN THE GFS AS IT
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WOULD
END THE RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF STILL HAS SOME PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

BOTH MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERN
SOLUTIONS THAT AFFECT TIMING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER THIS
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE RAIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING WHEN THE MOST LIKELY
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THOSE TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
CONTINUE TO AGREE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THIS LOWERS THE DURATION OF THE RAIN AND ALSO LOWERS THE
AMOUNTS IN COMPARISON TO THIS PAST WEEKENDS EVENTS. CURRENTLY...AN
AVERAGE OF 2-4 INCHES OF TOTAL RAIN LOOKS REASONABLE WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. UNTIL THE FINER DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM CAN BE
DETERMINED...WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...AS WE EXPERIENCED THIS
WEEKEND...THE MESOSCALE DETAILS DURING THE EVENT CAN DRIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HIGHER AND WE WILL NOT SEE THOSE FINE DETAILS
AHEAD OF TIME. BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER A SHORTER TIME PERIOD AND ALSO THE MOISTURE
RETURN PERIOD AHEAD OF THE RAIN STARTING FRIDAY WILL BE SHORTER.

JLDUNN

[Texas Snowman]

@NBCDFWWeather: From 1 pm Thu to 1 PM Fri, DFW had 4.60" rain. Highest 24 hr rainfall since 5.75" fell Sep 7-8, 2010 with TS Hermine. #dfwwx

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Factors appear to be coming together for another significant rainfall event Friday-Sunday.

A strong upper level low pressure system will move from the Gulf of Alaska into the SW US by the middle of the week and then toward TX Friday and Saturday. Gulf moisture will return northward starting Thursday and really surge into the area on Friday. While moisture levels are expected to be lower than this last event, significant forcing or lift with this very dynamic system will likely compensate. Both heavy rainfall and severe weather will be possible starting Friday and likely peaking on Saturday with potential to linger into Sunday. Forecasted rainfall amounts are fairly significant with widespread amounts in model guidance of 3-5 inches and isolated amounts upwards of 6-7 inches. With grounds now saturated from the weekend rainfall, run-off will likely be more significant. Additionally, given the convective nature of the event, rainfall rates will likely be higher than the 1-2 inches per hour on Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Will fine tune the forecast, rainfall amounts and locations, as the week goes on.

[Brent]

18z GFS has 36 degrees for DFW at 336 hours(November 9th)... doesn't seem like the warmup will last that long or be that bad(nothing above around 80 forecast) and only for a couple days with plenty of rain chances

Edit: The 0z GFS isn't quite as cold... but still has the coldest air of the season around the same timeframe... with lows in the low/mid 40s at DFW and highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s. This starts after another rain event around next Wednesday-Thursday. There's only a few days slightly above average before this(mid/upper 70s for highs, nothing extreme for early November, the cold lags a couple days behind the rain)

[Ntxw]

Nino 1+2 is cooling rapidly on the dailies (however cooling in the past few months there has not reflected on the weekly updates as well) so its a good hint for winter. October +PDO value will likely be record territory, well reflected in the state's rainfall totals.

[TheProfessor]

That would mean the Nino is becoming more Modokoi right?

[Brent]

Nino 1+2 is cooling rapidly on the dailies (however cooling in the past few months there has not reflected on the weekly updates as well) so its a good hint for winter. October +PDO value will likely be record territory, well reflected in the state's rainfall totals.

What does this mean for winter?

It looks like the Fri/Sat storm is more progressive now and most of the rain will fall Friday or early Saturday along the I-35 corridor, so most of Halloween may be dry.

[JDawg512]

We always set up a big Halloween display and have family and friends over so hopefully it will be dry enough for me to get everything ready.

On a side note. The overnight discussion from EWX is worded strangly. New met possibly or maybe someone who doesn't normally write it up?..