STORM2K

Ntxw wrote:Being that we are going in the final stretch of May many areas are running below normal for the month. Do not see any signal for heat waves or early onset of summer anytime soon. Summer of wxman57's discontent coming? Better not poke the bear...

Reminder we will be shifting to the summer thread on the 1st of June to remain in the pattern of meteorological seasons we've been using (June-July-August next). I don't believe anyone has yet made one so if someone would like to feel free!. I'd like for someone with good juju so that we can keep the "summer" discussions cool and watered down

HockeyTx82 wrote:Any thoughts for Thursday and Friday? NWS mentions possible severe and local Fox 4 met is hinting at something.

Pretty quiet here, lots of big storms out west again.

Ntxw wrote:While we still enjoy rains and good soils now, let us not forget La Nina is still on its way. Yesterday was the first reading below 0.5C in a year. That marks the end of the El Nino. The La Nina is seen growing in the equatorial eastern Pacific cutting through what was once warm. The CPC has already joined Nina climo beyond 5 months with drier than normal conditions kicking in for us once the event matures and not just talking about a 15-30 day dry period more like months. Probably sometime in the fall or winter we will see abnormal dry conditions begin to take hold as drought will likely make at least a short return for 2017. The area to watch first is southeast Texas. Once things begin to go into deficit there we will know moisture return is becoming meager for the rest of the state. They highlight the southern plains as drought potential next year. This summer and fall is a good time to practice water conservation and prepping your lawns and ground for long term health.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/



But until then, active and wet period continues for the next few months as the STJ is still alive.

weatherdude1108 wrote:Booooo! Say it isn't so. La Nina is the evil step child. May have to add compost to the lawn in the Fall and till it up a little bit to prep it. I'm thankful both Buchanan and Travis are full. West Texas lakes around San Angelo and Lubbock are doing better over the past several years, but on the other hand, are still way below capacity.

Strong upper level storm system to bring heavy rainfall and severe weather to TX Thursday and Friday

Large upper level storm system over the SW US will begin to lift into the plains later today with weak disturbances eject out of the main upper level flow and across TX. Air mass over TX is moist and unstable and just awaiting a trigger to set off showers and thunderstorms. Hazy conditions of the current air mass suggest it has originated in the southern Gulf of Mexico where smoke from Mexican agriculture fires has spread into the Bay of Campeche.

A strong short wave will eject out of Mexico later today and likely fire strong to severe thunderstorms along the dry line over SW TX. Some of the models develop this activity into an eastward moving MCS across SC TX tonight while other dissipate the storms as they move eastward. Interestingly some models fire numerous thunderstorms early Thursday afternoon over the W/NW sections of SE TX in an area between College Station and Columbus. These storms look to be slow moving and could possibly force a surface boundary that remains nearly stationary into the evening hours. Will need to watch this potential very closely on Thursday afternoon for rapid onset flash flood threat over our NW/W counties where slow moving excessive rainfall could develop.

Much of what happens Thursday afternoon will determine how things play out Thursday night and Friday. Certainly feel if development over our NW counties is significant Thursday afternoon, this will play a big role on Friday with boundaries in place.

Overall confidence is low moving forward with where severe weather and heavy rainfall risks are highest. Currently favoring NW of a line from Columbus to Lake Livingston to rain chances decreasing southward where sub-tropical ridging is attempting to build northward from the Gulf and Mexico.

Could certainly see some very heavy rainfall with storms with PWS at 2.0 inches. High hourly rainfall rates will be possible. Will go with 2-3 inches NW of a line from Columbus to Lake Livingston with 1-2 inches SE of this line, but isolated totals could be significantly higher. This also could be adjusted SE with any kind of outflow boundary. Could be a fairly strong rainfall gradient across SE TX with NW areas seeing a lot of rain and coastal/SE areas not seeing much at all.

Severe threat is generally on the low side, but would not rule out a large hail or damaging wind report with all the instability in the air mass.