Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Febuary 17 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Cold front over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy.

Afternoon: Becoming cloudy and with occasional showers mainly over northern showers.

Tonight: Cool and cloudy with isolated showers.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84)     Low: 22C (71F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:33 a.m.
 6:09 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:38 a.m.
 6:14 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:39 a.m.
 6:15 p.m.
 


[msbee]

good morning Carib friends. Just stopping in to say hi.
Thanks as always to Cycloneye for the continual updates.

The weather on St. Maarten has been fabulous. cool mornings and evenings, quite breezy, brief rain showers here and there.
We do need some heavier rain though.. a good ground soaking one... the plants in our garden would like that.
Have a good Sunday folks!

[cycloneye]

good morning Carib friends. Just stopping in to say hi.
Thanks as always to Cycloneye for the continual updates.

The weather on St. Maarten has been fabulous. cool mornings and evenings, quite breezy, brief rain showers here and there.
We do need some heavier rain though.. a good ground soaking one... the plants in our garden would like that.
Have a good Sunday folks!

Good morning Barbara and great to see you again. Nice picture there. We are in the dry season in the islands and is no surprise what we are going thru. But the rainy season is not far away and things will balance up. And then we have to start to look to our east for those waves to see which of them develop.

[cycloneye]

Some relief from the very dry conditions that Puerto Rico has been thru in past weeks but not a whole lot.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SUN FEB 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST US AND OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD WILL LIFT NE OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH
RIDGE COLLAPSING MID WEEK. TROF LIFTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL
BUILDING AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LIFTING/WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS POLAR TROUGH PRESSES AGAINST UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME
DEEPER AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW. GFS SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM EAST TO WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
UNDER SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THERE STILL COULD BE A RISK OF
SOME AFTERNOON LIGHT SHOWERS HOWEVER STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS MON
NIGHT AND TUE WILL INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND MOST LIKELY
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY. WINDS DIMINISH WED WITH BETTER SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCT
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS NW PR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FROM
THE ESE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN ON THU WITH INCREASING
STABILITY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. EXPECT VERY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJSJ 17/12Z INDICATED A SOUTHEAST
WIND OF 15 TO 25 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 30 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN MON NIGHT AND TUE AND NORTH
SWELLS BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE RAPIDLY ON THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN QUICKLY ON MON
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTING/WEAKENING AND ALLOWING FOR MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AND FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
BREAK OUT. IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO
PREVENT A MORE SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT. MODELS SHOW SIG LESS CLOUD
COVER/DRYER CONDITIONS TUE WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BUT WITH SIG
STRONGER WINDS. ON WED WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE ESE WITH SOUTH
COAST/SRN SLOPES EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
STABLE THU AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
BUT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AND FAVORABLE ESE WINDS WILL ENHANCE
SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN PRETTY
HIGH MOST OF THIS WEEK EXCEPT FOR MON WHEN CLOUD COVER APPEARS
SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 84 / 30 30 20 20
STT 75 85 75 84 / 30 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

An update on the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations of the first cold surge of February: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&start=100

And now, it has been a very nice, windy and cool day. The cold front now reaches Nicaragua:

[Gustywind]

Hello my friends ; Glad to read the posts up arrow . Looks like everbody is fine
Remember, last year where speaking about landing at ST Marteen and most of the Interet users of Guadeloupe are agree about the sensations.... get your belt and take aboard Hopefully there's no tstorm in vicinity but a big shining on all the carib lips


Hey Cycloneye, what about landing en la isla del encanto , how do you feel it in PR in terms of landing, impressive or not too much ?


Juliana airport to sensations

R. M. France-Antilles Guadeloupe 17.02.2013

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 205753.php

1700 Internet users considered that landing on the runway of Princess Juliana is the most spectacular and impressive, also well seen from the beach to the Interior of the aircraft. St. Maarten airport was designated by Internet users as the most spectacular in the world for its landing.

Sint Maarten Princess Juliana international airport was elected as the most spectacular in the world for its striking landings. For the third time, he was part of the top ten world airports and rose to first place.

During the month of December, the site privatefly.com organised a vote to refer to airport which the approach phase is the most amazing. 83 Airports chosen by a group of recognized experts in the aviation industry and travel, ten airports broke. Among airports such as those in Las Vegas, from Nice - Côte d'Azur, Los Angeles or Barra, Scotland, where the landing takes place on a beach, more than 1,700 Internet users considered that landing on the runway of Princess Juliana is the most spectacular and impressive, both seen from the beach to the Interior of the aircraft.

THE CONVERSATIONS OF THE PILOTS

It is from Maho Bay Beach that the spectacle of the arrival of the aircraft is the best and where you meet the "spotters" from filming or taking pictures. Their favorite place is the Sunset Bar, where you can hear from speakers, conversations between the pilots and the control tower.

The Privatefly company will award to the direction of the Princess Juliana airport, which this year celebrates its 70 years, a logo that it can use on all of its documents and communication media.

[Macrocane]

Glad to see you arpund again Gusty

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Glad to see you arpund again Gusty

yeah i'm here Macrocane because i'm running like a gust sometimes you tkink that i'm not there What about landing in you area?

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST MON FEB 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH NOW EXITING THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUED TO BUILD AND WILL SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN GREATLY INCREASED
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER TRADE
WINDS WILL RELAX ONCE AGAIN AS ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY SHOWED ROPE CLOUD FEATURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND HISPANIOLA... WITH EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR STRATOCU
CLOUDS TRAILING THE FRONTAL ZONE. MEANWHILE CLUSTERS OF SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
HIGH CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANYING A
WEAKLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT BRIEF SURGES OF SHALLOW TRADE WIND MOISTURE
TO BRING INTERMITTENT CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE HOWEVER ANTICIPATED
AS PREVIOUS UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS GROUND
BASED SAT DERIVED IPW SUGGESTED PWAT VALUES NEAR OR BELOW AN INCH
WITH NO MAJOR MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE
OCCASIONAL CLUSTERS OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE. RIDGE ALOFT ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY ERODING IS EXPECTED TO STILL LIMIT/SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF THE PUERTO RICO.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOP TODAY SHOULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF
STREAMERS AS TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK EXPECTED DIMINISHING
TRADE WINDS AND THUS BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 18/12Z...BECOMING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS THEREAFTER FROM THE SFC TO FL020. CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE
EAST...LIKELY CAUSING SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ISOLD SHRA ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE USVI/BVI AS WELL AS TJSJ AND TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY DATA AND SHIP OBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWED INCREASING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS...WHILE LOCAL SEAS REMAINED AT 5 FEET
OR LESS. TRADE WINDS WILL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH DETERIORATION AND HAZARDOUS MARIN CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 73 / 30 20 20 40
STT 84 74 85 74 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Febuary 18 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

 
Significant Feature: Cold front over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy with scattered light to moderate showers.

Afternoon: Becoming cloudy and with occasional showers mainly over northern showers.

Tonight: Cool and cloudy with isolated showers.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 28C (82)     Low: 22C (71F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:33 a.m.
 6:09 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:38 a.m.
 6:14 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:39 a.m.
 6:15 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

The fire danger is increasing as the dry period of Febuary and March goes on.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST MON FEB 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME
TIME. HOWEVER..OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED. SOME
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME.
LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PW VALUES
REMAINING NEAR 1.0 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. EAST WINDS
20G30KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 79 FEET TOMORROW...AS TRADE WINDS
INCREASES AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BUILDING HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS TOMORROW WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE
ANY SUPPRESSION EFFORTS HAZARDOUS AND DIFFICULT. OVERALL...HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 83 / 20 20 40 40
STT 75 85 74 84 / 20 20 30 30

[Macrocane]

yeah i'm here Macrocane because i'm running like a gust sometimes you tkink that i'm not there What about landing in you area?

Well, the landing in El Salvador is not as extreme as in Juliana airport but you have a nice view of the volcanoes, the lakes and the sea if you land in daylight hours

Today we had a very cold morning in Central America but the winds diminished through the day and as from tomorrow the days will only get warmer and warmer as we approach March and April (the hottest months in Central America), however we could still have one or two cold surges more before the season ends that would bring some relief to the heat.

[Macrocane]

Same cold front that produced cold temperatures in Central America caused this in Cuba:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO
30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A
WINDSAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SOME WIND BARBS
OF 30 KT IN LEE OF EASTERN CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOST OF THE WEEK. A VERY COLD NIGHT
WAS REPORTED BY THE CUBAN WEATHER SERVICE WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW 10 DEGREES CELSIUS IN PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL CUBA. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE WAS REPORTED IN BAINOA WITH 4.0 DEGREES (39.2°F)
FOLLOWED BY TAPASTE WITH 4.9 DEGREES (40.8°F) WHILE IN THE CITY OF HAVANA
THE MERCURY DROPPED TO 11.9 DEGREES CELSIUS (53.4°F). A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRES...CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...MOVES EWD AND WINDS VEER TO
THE E AND SE HELPING THE TEMPERATURE TO RISE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME OF THESE
PATCHES OF MOISTURE CROSSING JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND NEAR
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

Minimum temperatures registered today in Central America:

Belize city, Belize 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 10.3°C (50.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -1.0°C (30.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18.6°C (65.5°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 6.2°C (43.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.5°C (69.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 15°C (59°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.5°C (61.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 2.9°C (37.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.1°C (62.8°F)

[Gustywind]

yeah i'm here Macrocane because i'm running like a gust sometimes you tkink that i'm not there What about landing in you area?

Well, the landing in El Salvador is not as extreme as in Juliana airport but you have a nice view of the volcanoes, the lakes and the sea if you land in daylight hours

Today we had a very cold morning in Central America but the winds diminished through the day and as from tomorrow the days will only get warmer and warmer as we approach March and April (the hottest months in Central America), however we could still have one or two cold surges more before the season ends that would bring some relief to the heat.

ok glad to know that.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Not much change from the mainly dry conditions is expected in the NE Caribbean islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST TUE FEB 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY DRY EXCEPT ON SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A SHEAR LINE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED
BY DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...THIS DISSIPATING BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
NEARBY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE IN
PUERTO RICO IN EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. AMOUNTS WERE VERY LIGHT. THE
GFS SHOWS PATCHY MOISTURE MOVING IN INCREASING TRADE WIND FLOW
TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY. THE CURRENT SOLUTION
SHOWS EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SHEAR LINE PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHEARLINE IS BOTH PRECEDED AND FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AIR AND HENCE THE RELATIVELY DRIER FORECAST SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
INTERESTINGLY...THE ONLY TIME MOISTURE INTRUDES INTO THE MID
LAYERS IS DURING THE SHEAR LINE PASSAGE...OTHERWISE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AT 600 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTER MONDAY EVENING AND ABOVE 20
PERCENT ONLY 24 DURING THE HOURS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP SHOWER AMOUNTS LIMITED. AFTER MONDAY THE BOUNDARY IS
BROUGHT BACK IN A WEAKER CONDITION AND WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT SHRA POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE BVI/USVI
AND TJSJ. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL CAUSE MAINLY EAST WINDS AT
AROUND 15G25KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER
19/00Z TO AROUND 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41047 PEAKED AT 16 FEET AND HAVE TOUCHED
11.5 FEET TWICE AT BUOY 41043. SEAS REACHED 6.6 FEET AT BUOY 41043
NEAR SAN JUAN AND REACHED ALMOST 8 FEET AT RINCON. PERIODS HAVE RANGED
BETWEEN 12 AND 14 SECONDS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS LATER THIS
MORNING. FORTUNATELY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL BE MORE THAN ONE
FOOT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OR SUBSEQUENT MORNING HIGH TIDES.
WITH INCREASING WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AND NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELL...SEAS WILL BE CONFUSED AND HAZARDOUS TO
NAVIGATION. ALSO RIP CURRENTS WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND SOME OF SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS
WERE RECEIVED OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS STILL HAVE VERY DRY FUELS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY. THEREFORE FIRES THAT START TODAY WILL
BE DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TO CONTROL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 45 PERCENT IN INTERIOR AREAS OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 30 50 50 30
STT 84 74 84 75 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Febuary 19 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Stationary front over the central Caribbean.

Morning : Windy with isolated showers over eastern parishes.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Cool and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:32 a.m.
 6:10 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:37 a.m.
 6:15 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:38 a.m.
 6:16 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST TUE FEB 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING WITH IT...CLOUDINESS WITH
SOME FAST MOVING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PATCH OF
MOISTURE WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. ONLY LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL REGION. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST...AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK. LATER...FOR THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS PR THROUGH
19/20Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHRA. LLVL WINDS WILL RANGE BTWN
10-20 KTS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF FRESH WINDS AND
A NW SWELL. LATEST BOUY OBSERVATION INDICATED A DOWNWARD TREND IN
SEAS...BUT FORECAST IS ANOTHER SET OF SWELLS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ALSO...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 73 82 / 50 50 30 30
STT 74 84 75 84 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST WED FEB 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION DURING THE
ENTIRE 10 DAYS IS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OF LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY DURING THE ENTIRE 10
DAY PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS AFFECTED BY
MIGRATING MID LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...BUT MODERATE TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SHEARLINE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAKLY RETURN
DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS WERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND
SHOWERS WERE NOT AS STRONG SO OVERALL THERE WAS LESS RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN MONDAY NIGHT. RANDOM PATCHES OF
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
HAVE DAMPENED STREETS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND BROUGHT MINOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO WILL ALSO
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOONS NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT
YIELD MUCH. DRYING BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND A SHEAR LINE WILL OCCUR
WITH ITS PASSAGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND CURRENT MODELS ARE TENDING
TO FAVOR RAIN A LITTLE LESS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR`S RUN. AS
THE BOUNDARY RETURNS ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE CONTINUATION OF
THIS WEEKS PATTERN WILL COMMENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PASSING SHRA WILL AFFECT THE USVI/BVI AS WELL AS
NORTHERN PR UNTIL 20/16Z. THEREAFTER...ISOLD-SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ UNTIL 20/23Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHRA. LLVL
EAST WINDS WILL RANGE BTWN 10-20 KTS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SIMILAR DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS AND ONLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM LEVELS OF
11 TO 12 FEET SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 13 TO 14 SECONDS. THE EXPIRATION OF
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE RE-EXAMINED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON LOCAL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PARADE OF MIGRATING LOWS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RETURN OF 7 FOOT SEAS TO THE AREA BEFORE THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE KEEPING EASTERN PUERTO RICO DAMP
AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER
OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN INTERIOR
AND SOUTH COASTAL PUERTO RICO. WINDS WILL REACH 20 MPH SUSTAINED
AND GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH TODAY AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND SOME EXPOSED PASSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 74 / 10 30 30 30
STT 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Febuary 20 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning : Windy and sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with brief showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight:  Fair and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88)     Low: 24C (75F)


[arizona_sooner]

Been here in Trinidad for almost a week now... Not even a hint of rain!

Going to Tobago on Friday - hoping for a continuation of the good weather....