AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST MON MAR 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SLOWLY DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION PULLED FURTHER EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
LOOSEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULL
FURTHER EAST AND RELAXES ITS HOLD. IN THE MEANTIME...THIS PATTERN
HAS CREATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WAS
HELPING THE MODERATE EASTERLIES TO TRANSPORT PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE LOCAL
CONDITIONS PROVIDING A SUBSIDENT/CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT. THIS
WILL THEREFORE SUPPRESS/LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING POLAR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN AND MODERATE EASTERLIES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES...STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO AID IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECTED THIS WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL DIMINISHING IN MOISTURE
IS FORECAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER EASTWARDS AND LOOSENS
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. OVERALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LIMITED
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. LESSER MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND PASSING -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL THE TERMINAL EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
NEAR PASSING -SHRA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ENE
AT AROUND 20 KT BTWN SFC TO FL150.
&&
.MARINE...THE BUOY 41053 IN SAN JUAN AS WELL AS 41043...FLUCTUATED
BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET AS NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE. AS A
RESULT... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND TUESDAY MORNING. MARINE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
THAT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 73 84 / 50 50 30 30
STT 74 85 74 84 / 50 50 40 40
Caribbean - Central America Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Scattered showers with periods of sun will be the rule in the weather for today for PR and adjacent islands.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST TUE MAR 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AS EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER..AT THIS MOMENT...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...E TRADE WNDS WL CONT WITH PATCHY CLOUDS/SHRA. VFR CONT
BUT ISOLD/BRIEF IFR/MVFR POSBL AND MTN OBSC IN STRONGEST SHRA. WIND
BLO FL100 E 12-20 KT WEAKENING TO 10-15 KT BY 18Z TURNING SE ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...THE BUOY 41053 IN SAN JUAN AS WELL AS 41043...FLUCTUATED
BETWEEN 5 TO 6 FEET AS NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE. AS A
RESULT...SMALLCRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 50 30 30 20
STT 85 74 84 74 / 50 40 40 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST TUE MAR 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AS EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER..AT THIS MOMENT...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN THE LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...E TRADE WNDS WL CONT WITH PATCHY CLOUDS/SHRA. VFR CONT
BUT ISOLD/BRIEF IFR/MVFR POSBL AND MTN OBSC IN STRONGEST SHRA. WIND
BLO FL100 E 12-20 KT WEAKENING TO 10-15 KT BY 18Z TURNING SE ON WED.
&&
.MARINE...THE BUOY 41053 IN SAN JUAN AS WELL AS 41043...FLUCTUATED
BETWEEN 5 TO 6 FEET AS NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE. AS A
RESULT...SMALLCRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 50 30 30 20
STT 85 74 84 74 / 50 40 40 30
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Code: Select all
JAMAICA WEATHER
LOCAL FORECAST
March 19 2013
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the Caribbean.
Morning: Mostly sunny.
Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.
Tonight: Fair.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)
Temperatures: High: 31C (88F) Low: 24C (75F)
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST TUE MAR 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...EXPECT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN AND DECREASE THE EASTERLY TRADES IN
RESPONSE TO A POLAR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND MORE EAST SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY BUT
IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED
POLAR TROUGH ENTERING AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS 19/12Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGEST CAP
INVERSION NEAR 750 MILLIBARS...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAPPED BELOW. EXPECT THE
PREVAILING TRADES TO CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS
AND PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS...HOWEVER THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND
OF SHORT DURATION. THEREAFTER...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS AND TRADE WINDS DECREASE...LOOK FOR BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
ENHANCEMENT OF SEA BREEZES AND LOCAL EFFECTS WHICH WILL INDUCE SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TRADE
WIND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE...AS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A DECREASING TREND IN PWAT VALUES
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE CAP IS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE REST OF
THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR MORE LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND
TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 19/22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ENE
AT AROUND 20 KT BTWN SFC TO FL150.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST
SWELL ACTION DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. LATEST DATA
OBTAINED FROM THE NE BUOY 41043 AS WELL AS 41053 THE SAN JUAN BUOY...
SUGGESTED OVERALL SEAS WERE NOW BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET. HOWEVER SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
DUE TO THE DIMINISHING SWELLS AND WIND CHOP CAUSED BY THE MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 72 87 / 20 30 20 30
STT 74 84 74 84 / 40 40 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST TUE MAR 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...EXPECT THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN AND DECREASE THE EASTERLY TRADES IN
RESPONSE TO A POLAR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND MORE EAST SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY BUT
IS TO GRADUALLY ERODE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AFOREMENTIONED
POLAR TROUGH ENTERING AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS 19/12Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGEST CAP
INVERSION NEAR 750 MILLIBARS...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAPPED BELOW. EXPECT THE
PREVAILING TRADES TO CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS
AND PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS...HOWEVER THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND
OF SHORT DURATION. THEREAFTER...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS AND TRADE WINDS DECREASE...LOOK FOR BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
ENHANCEMENT OF SEA BREEZES AND LOCAL EFFECTS WHICH WILL INDUCE SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TRADE
WIND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE...AS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A DECREASING TREND IN PWAT VALUES
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE CAP IS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE REST OF
THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR MORE LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND
TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 19/22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ENE
AT AROUND 20 KT BTWN SFC TO FL150.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST
SWELL ACTION DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. LATEST DATA
OBTAINED FROM THE NE BUOY 41043 AS WELL AS 41053 THE SAN JUAN BUOY...
SUGGESTED OVERALL SEAS WERE NOW BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET. HOWEVER SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
DUE TO THE DIMINISHING SWELLS AND WIND CHOP CAUSED BY THE MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 72 87 / 20 30 20 30
STT 74 84 74 84 / 40 40 30 30
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
A good deal of sunshine with only isolated showers will prevail today in PR and adjacent islands.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST WED MAR 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES DEPICTED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. SOME
SHOWERS WERE NOTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
LOCALLY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL TRANSPORT WITH IT...PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFT EAST NEXT FEW
DAYS...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MOIST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS PROMISE TO
BRING A WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN FACT...LATEST SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED THETAE
VALUES AT 700MB WILL INCREASE FROM 315K TODAY TO 334K BY FRIDAY.
ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 1.25
INCHES TODAY...TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DESTABILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...AND ALL THE
MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULE OUT MAINLY DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL. ISOLD SHRA NOT XPTD TO LWR COND THIS
MORNING BUT PSBL IN AFTERNOON MAINLY AT TJBQ...ALG WITH SOME OBSCD
MTN. LLVL WIND S-SE 5-15 KT VEERING TO W AND INCR WITH HGT ABV
FL150.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
COASTAL WATERS...WITH SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 18 KNOTS
OR LESS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...AS WINDS REMAINS AROUND
18 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SHIFT EAST...AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAX.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 85 73 / 10 10 10 10
STT 84 74 84 74 / 10 10 10 0
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST WED MAR 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES DEPICTED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. SOME
SHOWERS WERE NOTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
LOCALLY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL TRANSPORT WITH IT...PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFT EAST NEXT FEW
DAYS...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MOIST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS PROMISE TO
BRING A WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN FACT...LATEST SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED THETAE
VALUES AT 700MB WILL INCREASE FROM 315K TODAY TO 334K BY FRIDAY.
ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 1.25
INCHES TODAY...TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DESTABILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...AND ALL THE
MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULE OUT MAINLY DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL. ISOLD SHRA NOT XPTD TO LWR COND THIS
MORNING BUT PSBL IN AFTERNOON MAINLY AT TJBQ...ALG WITH SOME OBSCD
MTN. LLVL WIND S-SE 5-15 KT VEERING TO W AND INCR WITH HGT ABV
FL150.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
COASTAL WATERS...WITH SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 18 KNOTS
OR LESS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...AS WINDS REMAINS AROUND
18 KNOTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SHIFT EAST...AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAX.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 85 73 / 10 10 10 10
STT 84 74 84 74 / 10 10 10 0
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 145356
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Code: Select all
JAMAICA WEATHER
LOCAL FORECAST
March 20 2013
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the Caribbean.
Morning: Mostly sunny.
Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.
Tonight: Fair.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)
Temperatures: High: 31C (88F) Low: 24C (75F)
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST WED MAR 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME TO RESULT IN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.
THE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL CHANGE A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH
THE LOCAL AREA...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT ON SATURDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG 24 HR PRD. LATEST TJSJ
UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGESTED LIGHT ESE WND BTW 5-10 KTS BLO FL150
BCMG FM W IN INCR W/HT TO MAX OF AROUND 65 KTS NR FL300.
&&
.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS AS WELL AS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOYS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST TRANQUIL SEAS...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.CLIMATE...THERE ARE ONLY TWO TIMES OF A YEAR WHEN THE EARTH`S
AXIS IS TILTED NEITHER TOWARD NOR AWAY FROM SUN...RESULTING IN
A NEARLY EQUAL AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT AND DARKNESS AT ALL LATITUDES.
THESE EVENTS ARE REFERRED AS EQUINOXES. THE VERNAL EQUINOX (THE
FIRST DAY OF SPRING) OCCURRED THIS MORNING AT 7:02 AM AST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 72 86 / 10 10 0 30
STT 74 83 74 83 / 10 10 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST WED MAR 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME TO RESULT IN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.
THE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL CHANGE A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH
THE LOCAL AREA...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PULL OUT ON SATURDAY
WITH DRYER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG 24 HR PRD. LATEST TJSJ
UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGESTED LIGHT ESE WND BTW 5-10 KTS BLO FL150
BCMG FM W IN INCR W/HT TO MAX OF AROUND 65 KTS NR FL300.
&&
.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS AS WELL AS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOYS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST TRANQUIL SEAS...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.CLIMATE...THERE ARE ONLY TWO TIMES OF A YEAR WHEN THE EARTH`S
AXIS IS TILTED NEITHER TOWARD NOR AWAY FROM SUN...RESULTING IN
A NEARLY EQUAL AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT AND DARKNESS AT ALL LATITUDES.
THESE EVENTS ARE REFERRED AS EQUINOXES. THE VERNAL EQUINOX (THE
FIRST DAY OF SPRING) OCCURRED THIS MORNING AT 7:02 AM AST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 72 86 / 10 10 0 30
STT 74 83 74 83 / 10 10 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
After the cold start of the month the heat is now ruling over Central America, as it is typical to March and actually we've had the warmest temperatures in years. These are the temperatures registered on March 28, 2013:
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.2°C (37.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22.3°C (72.1°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 12.9°C (55.2°F) Warmest since December 12, 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.8°C (49.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.6°C (56.5°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 24.7°C (76.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 41.0°C (105.8°F) Hottest since April 3, 2012
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.5°C (88.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 25.3°C (77.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.2°C (97.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.2°C (37.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22.3°C (72.1°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 12.9°C (55.2°F) Warmest since December 12, 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 16°C (61°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.8°C (49.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.6°C (56.5°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 24.7°C (76.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 41.0°C (105.8°F) Hottest since April 3, 2012
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.5°C (88.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 25.3°C (77.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.2°C (97.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.8°C (85.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 19.4°C (66.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 26.0°C (78.8°F)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN YEARS IN SEVERAL CENTRAL AMERICAN LOCATIONS
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.1°C (37.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21.1°C (70.0°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.8°C (51.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.1°C (44.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.8°C (56.8°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.5°C (83.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 26.7°C (80.1°F) WARMEST SINCE MARCH 12, 2010
Zacapa, Guatemala 39°C (102.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.5°C (88.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 25.4°C (77.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.3°C (95.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 34°C (93°F) HOTTEST SINCE MARCH 12, 2010
La Esperanza, Honduras 29°C (84°F) HOTTEST SINCE MARCH 12, 2010
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F) Hottest since June 21, 2012
San Jose, Costa Rica 30.9°C (86.2°F) HOTTEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 28, 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.5°C (97.7°F) Hottest since April 15, 2012
Panama city, Panama 35.0°C (95.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 27.1°C (80.8°F) Warmest since August 19, 2012
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.1°C (37.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21.1°C (70.0°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.8°C (51.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.1°C (44.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.8°C (56.8°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.5°C (83.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 26.7°C (80.1°F) WARMEST SINCE MARCH 12, 2010
Zacapa, Guatemala 39°C (102.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.5°C (88.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 25.4°C (77.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.3°C (95.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 34°C (93°F) HOTTEST SINCE MARCH 12, 2010
La Esperanza, Honduras 29°C (84°F) HOTTEST SINCE MARCH 12, 2010
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F) Hottest since June 21, 2012
San Jose, Costa Rica 30.9°C (86.2°F) HOTTEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 28, 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.5°C (97.7°F) Hottest since April 15, 2012
Panama city, Panama 35.0°C (95.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 27.1°C (80.8°F) Warmest since August 19, 2012
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Moisture increases today and peaks tommorow as a trough moves close to PR.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST THU MAR 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES
AS WELL LATEST TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMMS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WETTER
CONDITIONS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DRIER TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT TH REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH 21/16Z. PASSING -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF PR AND USVI THROUGH 21/14Z...THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 21/16Z
AND 21/20Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE BLW 10
KFT.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDE TO CONTINUE
TODAY. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 83 75 / 10 0 60 40
STT 84 75 78 75 / 10 30 30 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST THU MAR 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES
AS WELL LATEST TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMMS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WETTER
CONDITIONS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DRIER TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT TH REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH 21/16Z. PASSING -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF PR AND USVI THROUGH 21/14Z...THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 21/16Z
AND 21/20Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE BLW 10
KFT.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDE TO CONTINUE
TODAY. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 83 75 / 10 0 60 40
STT 84 75 78 75 / 10 30 30 40
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Code: Select all
JAMAICA WEATHER
LOCAL FORECAST
March 21 2013
Significant Feature: Surface trough across the central Caribbean.
Morning: Mostly sunny.
Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.
Tonight: Fair.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)
Temperatures: High: 32C (90F) Low: 24C (75F)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST THU MAR 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE VORTICES
WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER MOISTURE AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE USVI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.
SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED AS
SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS TROUGH ALOFT PULLS OUT. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH 22/18Z. PASSING ISOLATED -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PR. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE BLW 10 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS AS WELL AS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOYS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST TRANQUIL SEAS...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 86 / 20 40 40 40
STT 75 83 75 84 / 40 40 40 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST THU MAR 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE VORTICES
WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER MOISTURE AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE USVI
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.
SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED AS
SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AT UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS TROUGH ALOFT PULLS OUT. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH 22/18Z. PASSING ISOLATED -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PR. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE BLW 10 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...LATEST DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS AS WELL AS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOYS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST TRANQUIL SEAS...WITH
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 86 / 20 40 40 40
STT 75 83 75 84 / 40 40 40 40
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Some showers will fall in PR this afternoon but for the most part dry conditions will prevail this weekend.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST FRI MAR 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EAST COAST OF UNITED STATES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN ESTABLISH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WIND
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE LOCAL
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADVECT ONCE AGAIN A WARM AND
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE LOCAL REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN HOT TEMPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AS THE
BROAD LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THE FOCUS OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW QUADRANT TO THE SW QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
22/06Z MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER AIR MASS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PWAT DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS SEEMS TO HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH 22/18Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 22/18Z PASSING ISOLATED SHRA REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ AND TJMZ...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE BLW 10 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SE WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
2 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF WEEKEND. A SMALL NNE
SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 75 87 75 / 20 10 10 10
STT 84 74 85 77 / 20 20 20 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST FRI MAR 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EAST COAST OF UNITED STATES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN ESTABLISH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WIND
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE LOCAL
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADVECT ONCE AGAIN A WARM AND
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE LOCAL REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN HOT TEMPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AS THE
BROAD LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THE FOCUS OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW QUADRANT TO THE SW QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
22/06Z MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER AIR MASS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PWAT DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS SEEMS TO HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH 22/18Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 22/18Z PASSING ISOLATED SHRA REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ AND TJMZ...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE BLW 10 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SE WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
2 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF WEEKEND. A SMALL NNE
SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 75 87 75 / 20 10 10 10
STT 84 74 85 77 / 20 20 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Code: Select all
JAMAICA WEATHER
LOCAL FORECAST
March 22 2013
Significant Feature: Surface trough across the central Caribbean.
Morning: Mostly sunny.
Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.
Tonight: Fair.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)
Temperatures: High: 32C (90F) Low: 24C (75F)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good afternoon. Yes,it was very warm today in San Juan with a new record of 93F. Not a lot of change to the mainly dry pattern that PR and adjacent islands have been going thru in the past few weeks.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST FRI MAR 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH A
RIDGE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY UNTIL A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON 30 MARCH.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL HOLD WEAKLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO LEAVING UP TO ONE INCH IN A FEW AREAS. MOST AREAS HAD LESS
THAN ONE TENTH INCH. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUED FOR ANOTHER DAY AND
TEMPERATURES IN SAN JUAN REACHED THE LOWER 90S. ON THE WEST END OF
THE NORTH COAST HOWEVER...AND SPECIFICALLY IN AGUADILLA...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES NEVER PASSED 84 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ALSO REACHED 90
DEGREES IN PONCE. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY CAUSING SHOWERS TO
FORM FARTHER SOUTH AND OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST.
COVERAGE AS GOOD OR BETTER THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED. WINDS SHIFT
BACK A LITTLE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYER. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A PULSE OF MOISTURE ON MONDAY...THE
DRIEST DAY INDICATED IS TUESDAY WHEN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A FRONTAL BAND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS DO
NOT SHOW THE FRONT PASSING...ALTHOUGH IT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE LAST DAY OF MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AROUND TJMZ/TJPS AND TJBQ
THROUGH ABOUT 22/22Z. A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST AFT 23/00Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...AT 1:39 PM AST...A DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93
DEGREES WAS SET AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN
SAN JUAN/P.R. TODAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 92 SET BACK IN
1983.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN TRANQUIL AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET
UNTIL SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HOWEVER ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MONTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 89 73 86 / 10 10 10 10
STT 75 86 76 85 / 20 20 20 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST FRI MAR 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH A
RIDGE PASSAGE ON TUESDAY UNTIL A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON 30 MARCH.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH.
AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL HOLD WEAKLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF PUERTO
RICO LEAVING UP TO ONE INCH IN A FEW AREAS. MOST AREAS HAD LESS
THAN ONE TENTH INCH. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUED FOR ANOTHER DAY AND
TEMPERATURES IN SAN JUAN REACHED THE LOWER 90S. ON THE WEST END OF
THE NORTH COAST HOWEVER...AND SPECIFICALLY IN AGUADILLA...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES NEVER PASSED 84 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ALSO REACHED 90
DEGREES IN PONCE. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY CAUSING SHOWERS TO
FORM FARTHER SOUTH AND OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST.
COVERAGE AS GOOD OR BETTER THAN TODAY IS EXPECTED. WINDS SHIFT
BACK A LITTLE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND CONDITIONS WILL
BE DRYER. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A PULSE OF MOISTURE ON MONDAY...THE
DRIEST DAY INDICATED IS TUESDAY WHEN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A FRONTAL BAND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MODELS DO
NOT SHOW THE FRONT PASSING...ALTHOUGH IT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE LAST DAY OF MARCH.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AROUND TJMZ/TJPS AND TJBQ
THROUGH ABOUT 22/22Z. A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST AFT 23/00Z.
&&
.CLIMATE...AT 1:39 PM AST...A DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93
DEGREES WAS SET AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN
SAN JUAN/P.R. TODAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 92 SET BACK IN
1983.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN TRANQUIL AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET
UNTIL SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HOWEVER ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MONTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 89 73 86 / 10 10 10 10
STT 75 86 76 85 / 20 20 20 20
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tropicana
- Category 5
- Posts: 8056
- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2003 6:48 pm
- Location: Niagara Falls, Ontario, Canada
- Contact:
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
UPDATE Fri Mar 22/13 830pmET
A ridge of high pressure is now in control of the weather pattern across the Eastern Caribbean as the weak trough has now departed the area. Still, during the overnight hours , a few showers fell in spots. In 24 hours ending at 8pm Friday, 1.1mm of rain was recorded at Point Salines Grenada, 2mm at Canefield Airport Dominica, 5mm at Melville Hall Dominica, and 4mm at LeLamentin Martinique.
A heavy shower appears to have developed over mainland Venezuela SW of Icacos SW Trinidad at mid afternoon, but was shortlived.
The March sun was working with most sites registering at least 30C 86F today..Piarco Airport Trinidad reached 33.0C 91F , Ponce Puerto Rico 32.2C 90F... but the hottest spot today was at San Juan PRico with 33.9C 93F (a record high for Mar 22) . That heat contributed to afternoon showers over NW districts of Puerto Rico.
But all in all, ridging at all levels of the atmosphere and strong subsidence ..means it should be a fairly easy weekend to foretell what kind of weather is anticipated... mostly sunny across the islands, and very warm .
For the first 22 days of the month...here is how the rainfall figures look now from south to north: Piarco AIrport Trinidad 8.6mm, Grantley Adams Barbados 8.3mm, Hewannora AIrport St Lucia 17.9mm, Canefield Airport Dominica 7.2mm, Melville Hall Dominica 43.2mm, West End Anguilla 11.2mm, VC Bird Antigua 22.7mm, St Thomas VI 15.7mm, St Croix VI 29.7mm, San Juan PR 30.5mm.
A ridge of high pressure is now in control of the weather pattern across the Eastern Caribbean as the weak trough has now departed the area. Still, during the overnight hours , a few showers fell in spots. In 24 hours ending at 8pm Friday, 1.1mm of rain was recorded at Point Salines Grenada, 2mm at Canefield Airport Dominica, 5mm at Melville Hall Dominica, and 4mm at LeLamentin Martinique.
A heavy shower appears to have developed over mainland Venezuela SW of Icacos SW Trinidad at mid afternoon, but was shortlived.
The March sun was working with most sites registering at least 30C 86F today..Piarco Airport Trinidad reached 33.0C 91F , Ponce Puerto Rico 32.2C 90F... but the hottest spot today was at San Juan PRico with 33.9C 93F (a record high for Mar 22) . That heat contributed to afternoon showers over NW districts of Puerto Rico.
But all in all, ridging at all levels of the atmosphere and strong subsidence ..means it should be a fairly easy weekend to foretell what kind of weather is anticipated... mostly sunny across the islands, and very warm .
For the first 22 days of the month...here is how the rainfall figures look now from south to north: Piarco AIrport Trinidad 8.6mm, Grantley Adams Barbados 8.3mm, Hewannora AIrport St Lucia 17.9mm, Canefield Airport Dominica 7.2mm, Melville Hall Dominica 43.2mm, West End Anguilla 11.2mm, VC Bird Antigua 22.7mm, St Thomas VI 15.7mm, St Croix VI 29.7mm, San Juan PR 30.5mm.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Scattered showers will fall today in PR as a trough lingers nearby but dry weather will arrive from Sunday and last thru most of next week.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SAT MAR 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN ESTABLISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LAYER
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES PROPAGATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND THE INFLOW OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY FUEL A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. LAND/SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYER. THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA LATE IN THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUILDING TO 3-6 FT BY
SUNDAY. A SMALL NNE SWELL WILL MIX WITH THE WIND WAVES TO INCREASE
THE SEAS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 87 75 / 20 10 10 0
STT 85 75 85 77 / 10 20 20 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SAT MAR 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN ESTABLISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LAYER
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES PROPAGATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND THE INFLOW OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY FUEL A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. LAND/SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRYER. THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA LATE IN THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER TJPS AND TJMZ THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUILDING TO 3-6 FT BY
SUNDAY. A SMALL NNE SWELL WILL MIX WITH THE WIND WAVES TO INCREASE
THE SEAS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 87 75 / 20 10 10 0
STT 85 75 85 77 / 10 20 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Code: Select all
JAMAICA WEATHER
LOCAL FORECAST
March 23 2013
Significant Feature: Surface trough across the central Caribbean.
Morning: Mostly sunny.
Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.
Tonight: Fair.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)
Temperatures: High: 32C (90F) Low: 24C (75F)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST SAT MAR 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. A GENTLE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. AFTER WHICH WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP UNTIL A WEAK
TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH TUESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUING UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...PATCHES OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL A FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONE STATION NORTHEAST OF MAYAGUEZ
REPORTING MORE THAN 1.2 INCHES ACCORDING TO A USGS GAGE. ANOTHER
STATION IN VILLALBA HAD MORE THAN 0.7 INCHES. OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS NORTH AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO SKIES WERE NEARLY CLEAR. A
FEW STREAMERS FORMED OFF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO POSSIBLE THERE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE REMAINS OUT OF COMMUNICATION WITH ITS DOPPLER
RADAR AT THIS TIME. THE GFS SUGGESTS A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD
DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A BRIEF PULSE OF MOISTURE ON
MONDAY AND AN EVEN DRIER PARCEL OF AIR ON TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
GRADUAL ASCENT TO WETTER CONDITIONS WHEN A FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MID LEVELS ALSO WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY DRY
LIMITING MOISTURE AND CONVECTION AFTER TODAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS
DOES NOT SHOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE. A PATCH OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY IN A
WEAK TROUGH DOES APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT
CANNOT PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ITS EXISTENCE YET...EVEN THOUGH
THE MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE SMALL PATCH OF MOISTURE IN
THE CORRECT PLACE NEAR 27 NORTH AND 40 WEST IN THE 23/12Z RUN THAT
SHOWS IT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND
TJPS THROUGH AT LEAST 23/22Z. A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
NEXT 24 HRS...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST AFT 25/00Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL COME UP A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS TWO PULSES OF
SWELL CONVERGE ON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST.
SEAS DIMINISH AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PULSE WILL COME
IN ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FROM ANY OF THESE SWELL TRAINS ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT
WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 75 87 / 10 10 20 20
STT 75 85 77 85 / 20 20 10 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST SAT MAR 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. A GENTLE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. AFTER WHICH WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP UNTIL A WEAK
TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH TUESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUING UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...PATCHES OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL A FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH BETTER MOISTURE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONE STATION NORTHEAST OF MAYAGUEZ
REPORTING MORE THAN 1.2 INCHES ACCORDING TO A USGS GAGE. ANOTHER
STATION IN VILLALBA HAD MORE THAN 0.7 INCHES. OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS NORTH AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO SKIES WERE NEARLY CLEAR. A
FEW STREAMERS FORMED OFF CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO POSSIBLE THERE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE REMAINS OUT OF COMMUNICATION WITH ITS DOPPLER
RADAR AT THIS TIME. THE GFS SUGGESTS A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD
DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A BRIEF PULSE OF MOISTURE ON
MONDAY AND AN EVEN DRIER PARCEL OF AIR ON TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
GRADUAL ASCENT TO WETTER CONDITIONS WHEN A FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MID LEVELS ALSO WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY DRY
LIMITING MOISTURE AND CONVECTION AFTER TODAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS
DOES NOT SHOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE. A PATCH OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY IN A
WEAK TROUGH DOES APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT
CANNOT PLACE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ITS EXISTENCE YET...EVEN THOUGH
THE MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE SMALL PATCH OF MOISTURE IN
THE CORRECT PLACE NEAR 27 NORTH AND 40 WEST IN THE 23/12Z RUN THAT
SHOWS IT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND
TJPS THROUGH AT LEAST 23/22Z. A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
NEXT 24 HRS...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST AFT 25/00Z.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL COME UP A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS TWO PULSES OF
SWELL CONVERGE ON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST.
SEAS DIMINISH AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER PULSE WILL COME
IN ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FROM ANY OF THESE SWELL TRAINS ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT
WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 75 87 / 10 10 20 20
STT 75 85 77 85 / 20 20 10 10
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145356
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather
Good morning. Mainly dry weather will dominate in PR and adjacent islands for the next three days. By Wednesday a shear line will arrive bringing scattered showers.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST SUN MAR 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AT AROUND 400 NM FROM THE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL GENERATE A EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY.AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFTER THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY A
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING
A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. A FEW OF THIS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO
RICO THROUGH SUNRISE.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED TO A
COLD FRONT...WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THE CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15KT WITH GUST
OF 20KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SEA BREEZES WILL INFLUENCE THE
PREVAILING TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 24/14-21Z.
&&
.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS CONTINUED TO REPORT SEAS A FOOT BELOW THE
MODEL FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THEREFORE ADJUSTED THE
LOCAL FORECAST. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AT
AROUND 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 74 / 20 20 20 0
STT 85 75 85 75 / 20 10 10 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST SUN MAR 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AT AROUND 400 NM FROM THE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL GENERATE A EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY.AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFTER THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY A
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS PREVAILED OVER THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING
A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. A FEW OF THIS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO
RICO THROUGH SUNRISE.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED TO A
COLD FRONT...WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THE CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15KT WITH GUST
OF 20KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SEA BREEZES WILL INFLUENCE THE
PREVAILING TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 24/14-21Z.
&&
.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS CONTINUED TO REPORT SEAS A FOOT BELOW THE
MODEL FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THEREFORE ADJUSTED THE
LOCAL FORECAST. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AT
AROUND 15 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 74 / 20 20 20 0
STT 85 75 85 75 / 20 10 10 20
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