STORM2K

TheStormExpert wrote:What once a few days ago was looking like a potentially potent arctic blast is now going to be nothing more than a quick cool down that we haven’t seen over a dozen times this winter.

Like I’ve said before, until the NAO goes negative (if ever) we won’t see the significant cold folks up north are dealing with.

From the looks of things as of this morning I highly doubt the NAO goes negative through the rest of this month. It’ll likely stay neutral to positive. Not sure what you’re seeing northjaxpro to drive the NAO negative, could you elaborate more?

You should be a skeptic when it comes to anomalous weather...which by definition means it is unusual. Florida (especially south florida) wouldn't look like florida if it routinely got cold. As I see it, until anomalous weather happens...it's busy finding a reason not to happen. This is why I don't believe arctic cold is on the way until it actually is. With a hurricane...show me an eye. With an arctic invasion...show me a front barreling toward me. Having said all of that..there is no doubt that the pattern indicates a heightened risk at what is already the most risky time of the year. that screams pay attention. more so than usual. This is the winter equivalent of watching the tropics in September with a favorable incoming MJO and CCKW. The risk is heightened at what is already the most risky time of year. As for what will happen...who knows. those are granular details impossible to decipher at this juncture. We could just get repeatedly scraped by chilly weather and end up with a couple weeks of jacket weather. Or we could get bombed with a doozy of a freeze event. We just have to wait and see.

I welcome all inquisitive minds to approach or ask me things on here. I have been doing it for over 8 years on here as a member of this site. This is why I come on here or spend my free or leisure time on these forums. I do it because of my love of the weather and people overall in general.

This is a great site and weather community. I have come across some of the best, most knowledgeable, and experienced people in weather here on Storm2K, both from professional mets and excellent weather enthusiasts alike.

It's been a nice few mornings in the 50s. Now we're getting those winds veering over to the east. I'm surprised we had nearly a week of cool mornings. For all we know, that might have been our "South Florida winter," right there.

boca wrote:It’s rare to even get below 45 degrees here along the SE coast so the air tends to moderate quite a bit down here even if the temperatures are 32 in central Florida.

Lately it has been extremely difficult just getting below 50.

I got to see the very different climates of Florida last winter, when I was driving back from Charleston, SC during what was a pretty good cold snap in late December. The weather in Charleston was absurdly cold, cloudy, low 30s/upper 20s with wind. Didn't really change much driving down 95 through Georgia. Around the Florida state line, it started to rain. Temp in Jacksonville was a brisk 44 degrees. This held until around St. Augustine, when the temps bumped up into the low 50s. Crossed over on I-4 into Orlando, where it was cloudy, with temps in the low 60s. Those low 60s held all the way until, surprise, surprise, West Palm Beach, where the sun was trying to break through the clouds, with temperature around 70. Drive down to Miami, when I get there, it's partly cloudy, blue sky, 80 degrees.

Such a short distance, but a big difference. There has to be some kind of unofficial cutoff line near Lake Okeechobee where the tropical oceans to the south exert much more influence than the continent to the north.

northjaxpro wrote:

TheStormExpert wrote:What once a few days ago was looking like a potentially potent arctic blast is now going to be nothing more than a quick cool down that we haven’t seen over a dozen times this winter.

Like I’ve said before, until the NAO goes negative (if ever) we won’t see the significant cold folks up north are dealing with.

From the looks of things as of this morning I highly doubt the NAO goes negative through the rest of this month. It’ll likely stay neutral to positive. Not sure what you’re seeing northjaxpro to drive the NAO negative, could you elaborate more?

Well, I have stated this previously several times...

I stated a few days ago to expect...

So, again, it is a methodical process folks...This is not a sprint! As I explained in past posts.....

I can keep explaining this ad nauseum to some of you, but it seems it feels like I am beating a dead horse at times...

Sometimes we become unaware the impact ad nauseum can have on others. You, myself, and many other posters here are more then happy to answer questions or lend an opinion. Jax, like several others who share these forums I think you too have a particularly keen eye for synoptic analysis, satellite presentation and model interpretation (especially with regard to tropical cyclones). With that said, I think you have become a bit presumptuous to feel the need to postulate in such a manner that suggests and repeatedly reminds others to follow and remember predictions, explanations, or statements you have made. There are members here who pre-date yourself, and who pre-date me for that matter. Some may have less of a knowledge base then you or I, while others a good deal more. I enjoy lending my opinion as well as listening to those of others but I''m pretty sure that nothing I ever lend to conversation here will ever go viral, make me famous, or lift me to greater S2K prominence LOL. I think it's good to be self aware enough so to spare others the ad nauseum of posts that repeatedly "tell them" or "remind them" what it was that we previously proclaimed. To do otherwise might come across a little pompous and self-absorbed. This is a hobbyist and informational weather forum. No one needs to beat a dead horse here. It's a choice.[/quote]

Anthony Masiello on Twitter mentioned a midwest blizzard by mid next week that should flip the pattern!

Chaser,

If you feel that way about what I have said or have been presumptuous toward others, then I will presume that others may feel the way you do as well. I try to be as respectful toward everyone on this forum and all in explaining my theories, rationalizations and analysis.

I am taken aback by you Chaser to chastise me like a petulant child on here and by you insinuating some previous posts I have donemas being pompous. I have come across many people through the years and have never been called that by anyone. So, if you have an issue with me or what I have said or done in the past ,you can always be respectful and send me a pm. I check them often. I have no ill will or malice toward absolutely anyone in any manner!! I never have any intent to antagonize fellow members on this site. Also, I am never in this site for any self adulation as you are also implying in your above post either. Period. I would never be on here if I did not have civility in my bones. So, again, let me say to people here if you take offense to any thing I say or do, either knowingly, or in this case unknowingly, I am sincerely sorry and I will carry on . Maybe I will welcome people to pm me more instead of airing my comments and statements out in the open if they want my thoughts. This was something I used to do when I first joined as a member. I'll do that if needed. It's all good...

Also we must remember that arctic airmasses are shallow. Meaning 950-1000mb temps are colder then 850mb temps!

Brooksville pulled a Flagstaff today with a low of 27 and a high of 71.

The 18Z GFS shows a pattern which could bring some really cold weather to Florida the next couple of weeks. Big trough over the Eastern US with a ridge over the west. Multiple shortwave round the base of the long-wave trough. Bears watching for any arctic intrusions.

I’ve noticed that a lot of the models show strong cold in the long range, then temper the magnitude of said cold snaps once the days get closer. We haven’t had a freak cold event this season like we did last year with that January freeze. I think we could still get cold between now and March, but it would be similar to what we had this past week in terms of how cold (40s near the coast of central Florida). I myself hope we get some good thunderstorms and wind this weekend. I get excited by the wind.

Hopefully we can squeeze out a respectable line of convection with this weekend's front. And may the freeze line remain well to our north and the cold continue to live in the long range GFS...where it seems to have a permanent home

Oh soooo an iceage is coming....nevermind the GFS

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1086246002527485960

The 12z NAEFS has FL covered in dark blue 90-100% chances of below normal temperature anomalies. Makes you wonder what this afternoons CPC Temperature Outlook will look like.

Ok Euro....

12Z EURO out 216 hours is just plain insane. Wow. The run shows an amazing and sharp displacement of the Polar Vortex. EURO depicts the PV dropping south/southwest from near Hudson Bay all the way to the Mid- Mississippi River Valley at the end of the specified period.


I am not going to get overly anxious about this currently. It is just this one run. However, if the next couple of days runs keep showing similar solutions, we may be potentially dealing with some real serious cold anomalies across the region next weekend or by 1/27-1/28 to be more specific.

How can the Euro produce extreme temps like that when the NAO is in neutral to positive range?

Today's Euro is a cat 5 Winter event. At least it can't get worse...

Todays 8-14 Day CPC Temperature Outlook has the core of the cold staying well to the north over the Great Lakes and Mid-West region. No doubt that 10 day 12z Euro forecast will change as the Euro has been notoriously bad past 5-7 days for awhile now.

The latest 18z GFS doesn't even show anything close to what the 12z Euro is showing at day 10.