Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few scattered showers will move thru PR and the VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST TUE APR 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS WEST AND TROUGHINESS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A BROAD TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. A
75 KNOT JET FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA SHORTLY
AFTER...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING RIDGE SET TO PASS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AT UPPER LEVELS. LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY AT MID LEVELS THAT
BEGINS TOMORROW AND LASTS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL AID IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODEST HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. ITS
REPLACEMENT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THUS KEEPING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONGER SHOWERS SET UP OVERNIGHT OVER PUERTO RICO
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
SOME OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WERE UPWARD OF 1 INCH...WITH ONE TENTH
INCH FAIRLY COMMON JUST INLAND. THE BAND OF MOISTURE PRODUCING
THESE SHOWERS IS MOVING ONTO THE PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND AFTER
GIVING SOME SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE
INLAND TO PROVIDE NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS SHALLOW HOWEVER...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE QUITE
LOCALIZED. SOME AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1.5 INCHES. DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW BY 10/00Z CLEARING ALL BUT A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS OUT BY SUNSET. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BRING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTER WHICH MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY
LESS AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED UNTIL SUNDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL CHANGES WILL
BE STRONGER BUT DUE TO THE WEAK MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS GET LITTLE CHANCE TO INFLUENCE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
THE MORNING HOURS WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER
09/17Z...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSRA ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR...AND MAY AFFECT TJMZ. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 09/14Z. EXPECT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN AGITATED IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW GENERATED BY HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH THAT CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 7
FEET HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN ALL BUT THE
MOST PROTECTED WATERS. SWELL WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 75 / 50 30 30 30
STT 86 76 85 76 / 30 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 9 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST TUE APR 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD
AND EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DESTABILIZING
SLIGHTLY THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS TROUGH COULD ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS AFFECTING THE WEST AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR. RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING SECTIONS FROM RINCON TO
HORMIGUEROS EASTWARD TO ADJUNTAS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI.

SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER
MOISTURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE USVI OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD OVER PUERTO
RICO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING PR/USVI WED MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. IN GENERAL...MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WITH BANDS OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES REACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR SHOWED SCT-BKN CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW FL020-FL080 WITH EMBEDDED
PASSING SHRA MOVING W ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND BRUSHING
PARTS N AND E COASTAL SECTION OF THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL LINGER UNTIL 09/23Z... OVR WRN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. ERLY
WINDS OF 10-25 KTS BLO FL150...BCMG FM W AND INCR W/HT ABV TO MAX
NR 90 KTS NR FL450.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE MODERATE TO FRESH IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS BETWEEN 5 TO 6 FOOT WITH PERIODS BETWEEN 8 TO 10
SECONDS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA MOST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 75 86 / 30 30 30 30
STT 76 85 76 86 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Here is the March Climate report for PR/U.S VI.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=mar2013cr

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some scattered showers will move thru PR and the U.S VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST WED APR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGHINESS WILL FORM OVER AND JUST
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN 80 KNOT JET FROM
THE NORTHWEST PULLS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT FLOW WILL REMAIN WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS KEEPING TROUGHINESS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. WEAK MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON
SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A CONTINUOUS PRESENCE IN
THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS FLUCTUATE
LITTLE AND KEEP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON THE WINDWARD COASTS AND LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNINGS AND OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FLOW CONTINUED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS THAT SPILLED OVER THE SHORES OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAINS OCCURRED OVER
HUMACAO AND YABUCOA AS WELL AS DORADO AND VEGA BAJA. BUT SOME
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ALSO FELL FROM LUQUILLO TO TOA BAJA SINCE
MIDNIGHT. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THESE WERE DUE TO A WIDE
BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHOSE WETTEST POINT HAS
YET TO CROSS THE EASTERN COAST. SO FAR SHOWERS HAVE MISSED THE
RAIN GAGES IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN IN SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. DRIER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP
ON THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS AND COVERAGES OF RAIN IN
THE WEST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS...BUT
REBOUND SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MOISTURE MAX MOVES THROUGH.
AREAS OF MOISTURE REMAIN SHALLOW THROUGH 20 APRIL...LIMITING
CONVECTION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
THE MORNING HOURS WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER
10/17Z...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR...AND MAY AFFECT
TJMZ...AND POSSIBLE TJBQ. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS VARY LITTLE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH WINDS FROM AROUND 12
TO 18 KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 6 FEET FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AFTER FRIDAY SWELL TRAINS IN BOTH THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC WILL BE LESS THAN 1 METER...AGAIN THROUGH
20 APRIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 86 77 / 20 30 30 40
STT 85 76 86 77 / 10 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Is very important for the Caribbean and Central American members to visit the experts forecast thread at Talking Tropics forum to see how the forecasts for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season are shaping up. All of them expect an active 2013 season so let's prepare for the worse but for me and the Caribbean friends who live in hurricane alley we can hope for a quiet season.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114356&hilit=&start=0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST WED APR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BASE
OF A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE A SUBTROPICAL JET MAX OF AROUND 100 KNOTS ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TODAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT SUFFICIENT FRAGMENTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION...TO AID IN EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY ENHANCE AND GAVE WAY TO SHOWER AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
IN SOME AREAS. EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH TO ERODE AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EAST BY THURSDAY AND AS A RESULT THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BECOME
POSITIONED ON THE SUBSIDENT/CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THEREFORE...
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT PERIODS OF PASSING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DIURNALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IF ANY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ISLANDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN PR WHERE
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST
10/22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
OF PR UNTIL THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST WITH
SEA/LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SEAS IN THE 5-6 FOOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 84 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 86 76 86 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today and thru the weekend but anything like a big rain event is expected.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST THU APR 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WINDS TO DOMINATE SURFACE TO 700 MB INTO NEXT
WEEK TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST AT 500 MB AND ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL
JET TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION UNTIL POSSIBLY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AT 1.61 INCHES ON 00Z TJSJ SOUNDING AND GFS
INSISTED SFC-700 MB MOISTURE WAS ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. HOWEVER
TPW-MIMIC SHOWED A FINGER OF MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE EAST
AND HAVING ALREADY REACHED USVI BY THU/01Z. HAVE KEPT RELATIVELY
DRY FORECAST ALMOST AS IT IS IN CURRENT GRIDS. BEST CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY WILL BE FROM MAYAGUEZ THROUGH WESTERN
PR MOUNTAINS BUT EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THERE
WILL BE PATCHES OF MOISTURE DEEPER THAN 850 MB PASSING OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT WITHOUT A CLEAR TROUGH TO FOCUS ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL UNTIL MAYBE TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 11/17Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN FROM 11/18Z THROUGH 11/22Z OVER
TJMZ...IN SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN WAVES AND NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS. WAVES TO REMAIN IN 4-6 FT
RANGE AND WINDS UNDER 20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 20 30 30 30
STT 86 76 86 77 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 11 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. It looks like a few scattered showers will move thru PR and the rest of the NE Caribbean islands thru the weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST THU APR 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...AS THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THE BASE OF TROUGH NOW EXTENDED SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY LIFT EAST NORTHEAST. THE
STRONG AND DOMINANT LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINED ANCHORED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN. THIS RESULTED A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLIES PREVAILING ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
SHOWED LINES/STREAMERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FEW SHOWERS EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT ONLY LIMITED DIURNALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
THE REGION CONTINUED TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY TODAY DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CAN THEREFORE BE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
ISLANDS MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNINGS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. THE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES
AND PREVAILING STEERING FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AS SHOWER ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND QUICKLY STREAM
ACROSS THE REGION.

BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
SURGE OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE INDUCED BY THE PREVAILING TRADE
WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
PWAT VALUES/CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT LOOK FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF MORE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH ONLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED IN ISOLATED AREAS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT ACROSS WRN PR WHERE ISOLD
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 11/22Z.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PR UNTIL THIS EVENING. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT
15 TO 20 KT JUST ABV SURFACE TO FL120. SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT FM 15 KT TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN 4 TO 6 FT RANGE WITH WINDS OF
20 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 85 / 30 30 30 30
STT 75 86 77 86 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good Morning. A few scattered showers will move thru PR and the rest of the NE Caribbean islands thru the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST FRI APR 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN VICINITY
TODAY AND GFS HAS A SO-SO HANDLE ON THEIR LOCATIONS. FIRST AREA
IS PASSING WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC ON THE NORTH SIDE OF PR ATTM
AND EXPECT THAT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP IT FROM REACHING SHORE
THIS MORNING. A SMALL AREA IS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX BUT
THERE IS A LARGER PORTION HAVING ALMOST FINISHED PASSING THROUGH
ST. KITTS. IT WILL PASS OVER ST. CROIX LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
PR CARIBBEAN WATERS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
PASS NEAR BRITISH VI LATER THIS MORNING BUT PROBABLY STAY NORTH OF
PR/USVI TODAY. THESE WILL ALL BUT MISS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WHILE
THERE IS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING WEST-EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS
EITHER. SO FOR LAND AREAS WE ARE LEFT WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN EXTREME WEST PR...AND ISOLATED
ELSEWHERE AT BEST.

BEYOND TODAY WE STILL HAVE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE AT LEAST MODERATE
TRADE WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE BRIEF DEEPER MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 12/17Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN FROM 12/18Z THROUGH 12/22Z OVER
TJMZ...IN SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL STAY JUST UNDER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE SEAS REMAIN 6 FT OR LESS. CONDITIONS
TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 86 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 86 76 86 77 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 12 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST FRI APR 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA STRETCHED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID TO UPPER TROUGH WITH BASE OF TROUGH NOW EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND BECOME AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL HOWEVER AID IN PRODUCING
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK EASTERLY
PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL AND STILL SUGGEST A BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONVERGE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION MAINLY
DURING THE EARLY MORNINGS AND AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING EACH
DAY. STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE OF SHORT DURATION AS THEY WILL
QUICKLY STREAM WESTWARDS OVER THE ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 12/22Z
IN SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHILE SEAS REMAIN AT 6 FT OR LESS. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 85 / 20 20 30 30
STT 76 86 77 86 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today and Sunday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST SAT APR 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FEATURE IS SUSTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WIND ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE CIMMS/MIMIC
PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.65 INCHES WITH
THIS WEAK TROUGH. THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PR/USVI TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WITH THIS FEATURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PATTERN THE LOCAL REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PR WHERE THE MODERATE CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE DOMINATED BY GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PR. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20KT
RANGE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO STREAMERS DOWNWIND OF THE SMALL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 13/18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN FROM 13/18Z THROUGH 13/22Z OVER
TJMZ...IN SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA WHILE SEAS REMAIN AT 6 FT OR LESS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 89 75 / 20 40 40 20
STT 86 76 86 78 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 13 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Gustywind]

From our daily newspaper.

A hurricane season 2013 worrying
France-Antilles Guadeloupe 12.04.2013

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 213099.php

Not what succumb to panic, they are only forecasts. But to say the least, is that those announced for the next hurricane season are not reassuring.

Indeed, the American specialists come to revise upward their calculations of the probability for the 2013 hurricane season. An above-average season (1950 to 2012) and that, therefore, lies in the top 3 of the most active.

In the opinion of specialists, this strong upcoming hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin is due to the combination of forecasts IRI ENSO (La Niña - El Niño). A phenomena that look for neutral conditions as well as unusually warm temperatures of the surface of the Sea (SST). The 2013 season could even rank among the most active years. Thus, the William M. Gray forecasts published last Wednesday are State of 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

PROBABILITY ON AREAS

In the area that concerns us directly, the area of the Caribbean, the impact probability of major hurricanes of category 3-4-5 between 10-20 ° North and 60-88 ° West is 61%. A figure much higher than that of these 100 years that was 42%.

More far from our shores, with regard to the likelihood of impact of major hurricanes for all sides of the USA, it is 72%, while these last 100 years was 52% in these regions.

For the eastern coast of the United States as well as the Florida peninsula, the probability calculated by experts is 48% (percentage these last 100 years: 31%).

On the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle West to Brownsville, the probability is 47% (30% these last 100 years).

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today but by midweek,a trough will bring deep moisture. Fingers crossed on that as we need rainfall as there is a deficit in precipitation so far this year.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST SUN APR 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
HOLD UNTIL MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL DIMINISH AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES BY MIDWEEK. A LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE GPS MET
DATA LOCATED IN ST. CROIX MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 1.45 INCHES AND RISING. THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH THIS LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AFFECTING MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.

MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND LIMIT THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MODERATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE ONLY IN ISOLATED AREAS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO
STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES/WEAKENS...SUBSIDENCE CAP IS TO CRUMBLE
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK.
THIS TROUGH PATTERN WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 14/18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN FROM 14/18Z THROUGH 14/22Z OVER TJMZ...AND
TJBQ IN SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST IN
THE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 85 74 / 30 30 30 20
STT 85 77 85 77 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 14 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Windy with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Gustywind]

Good morning. Some scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today but by midweek,a trough will bring deep moisture. Fingers crossed on that as we need rainfall as there is a deficit in precipitation so far this year.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST SUN APR 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
HOLD UNTIL MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL DIMINISH AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES BY MIDWEEK. A LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE GPS MET
DATA LOCATED IN ST. CROIX MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 1.45 INCHES AND RISING. THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH THIS LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AFFECTING MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.

MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND LIMIT THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MODERATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE ONLY IN ISOLATED AREAS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO
STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES/WEAKENS...SUBSIDENCE CAP IS TO CRUMBLE
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK.
THIS TROUGH PATTERN WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 14/18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN FROM 14/18Z THROUGH 14/22Z OVER TJMZ...AND
TJBQ IN SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST IN
THE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 85 74 / 30 30 30 20
STT 85 77 85 77 / 40 40 40 30

I hope that sincerely for you Cycloneye and most of the others islands of the Carib. By the way, Meteo-France seems very bullish concerning the arrival of this bad weather. They expected unstelled weather conditions Wednesday (even thunderstorms ) with a peak of the activity Thursday and Friday. We will see how the things evolves. Let's have our fingers crossed

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SUN APR 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE AREA MOVES SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVES IN BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN A THIRD SHARPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN FLATTENS OUT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY...FORMING A CUT-OFF LOW TO THE NORTHEAST
BY WEDNESDAY...THAT FORMS A BLOCK BY FRIDAY THAT PERSISTS INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TRANS ATLANTIC RIDGE FORMS A BOWL IN MID
LATITUDES UNTIL HIGHER PRESSURE OUT OF MAINE MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND HIGH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER AGAIN...
FOLLOWS IN ALMOST THE SAME PATH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THIS HOLDS
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
SUNDAY. AREAS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND INTERMITTENT DRIER SLOTS OF
AIR MOVE THROUGH...WITH SHOWERS LEAVING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND IN THE EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND VISUAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWED EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS IN THE CULEBRINAS RIVER VALLEY
FORMED WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.15 INCHES BY 3 PM AST.
DRIER AIR TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WITH LITTLE
ACTIVITY...BUT PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR IN ON
WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL HOLD.
NEVERTHELESS INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRIER THAN THE FIRST PART...THEN MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT CAPPING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY MID LAYERS TO KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED OVERALL WITH ONLY
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OR AROUND TJMZ
AND TJBQ IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO TIL 14/22Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL LEAD TO AGITATED SEAS
GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
25 KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF PUERTO
RICO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WERE SUNNY AND DRY ON THE SOUTH COAST
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE DRYNESS OF FUELS THERE. THIS PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF SALINAS. SOMEWHAT DRIER
OVERALL THROUGH THIS WEEK. WINDS CONTINUE TO FOLLOW SEASONAL
PATTERN AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 75 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 86 77 84 / 20 20 30 30