Texas Spring 2023

[WacoWx]

Sun is peaking out in Las Colinas.

[Texas Snowman]

Sunshine in Denison too…

 https://twitter.com/collinmyerswx/status/1631354889002532864

[WacoWx]

First storm initiation around Midland. That's much further west than I anticipated.

[Iceresistance]

Thunderstorm Watch just south of me

[HockeyTx82]

First storm initiation around Midland. That's much further west than I anticipated.

Fox 4 at noon said a special balloon went up and the air was still stable around the lunch hour. HRRR from 17z has backed off of discrete cells and more linear and perhaps not as impressive as before?

Can someone with far more knowledge then me take a look?

[opticsguy]

The NAM 3km forecast soundings showed a slight cap at 800mb that the HRRR didn't show. Maybe just enough to delay storm formation for a few more hours?

[Ntxw]

Wind fields aren't the best for tors as noted above in several posts. Hail the higher risk also winds. Contrary further west initiation also gives them time to line up by the time they get to the metroplex.

[rwfromkansas]

The further west the less gorilla hail hopefully and more just wind.

[Iceresistance]

Wichita Falls is getting plummeted right now.

[Iceresistance]

There is a discrete cell near Mineral Wells.

[Edwards Limestone]

Woke up to a pretty significant hailer this morning in the Hill Country (west of New Braunfels) around 3:30 am. Probably quarter to nickel size for about 5-10 min. No visible damage that I can see yet.

Spring is def here!

[ElectricStorm]

First storm initiation around Midland. That's much further west than I anticipated.

Fox 4 at noon said a special balloon went up and the air was still stable around the lunch hour. HRRR from 17z has backed off of discrete cells and more linear and perhaps not as impressive as before?

Can someone with far more knowledge then me take a look?

IMO the HRRR looks similar to previous runs, it's been showing a mostly linear solution pretty much the entire time. Hence the removal of the 15% tor area. 12z run this morning had perhaps a few more discrete cells, but those would mainly be hail producers I would think.

There's definitely still potential for tors though, but this shouldn't be a huge tornado outbreak

[Iceresistance]

There was a small couplet near Graford, TX, but it appears that storm has weakened for now.

[bubba hotep]

SPC surface analysis shows the warm front north of DFW but there is another boundary just south of DFW moving north that is the leading edge of a CAPE/thetaE surge. I would watch any storm that fires in conjunction with that boundary.

[cstrunk]

18z HRRR is more bullish on firing cells along and south of I-20 in East Texas within the next few hours.

Otherwise it's been a typical enhanced/moderate risk type day for me here in Longview. Overcast and occasional showers/mist. If the mid-afternoon storms don't form, the QLCS moving through tonight will probably be severe, but the models seem to show it in more of a decaying stage by the time it makes it over here.

[cstrunk]

18z HRRR is more bullish on firing cells along and south of I-20 in East Texas within the next few hours.

Otherwise it's been a typical enhanced/moderate risk type day for me here in Longview. Overcast and occasional showers/mist. If the mid-afternoon storms don't form, the QLCS moving through tonight will probably be severe, but the models seem to show it in more of a decaying stage by the time it makes it over here.

Those cells are now forming. Will have to watch them to see if they continue to strengthen.

[txtwister78]

While storm development is a bit more uncertain further south into the southern Edwards Plateau and SA metro region, things are definitely looking more unstable down here with max heating approaching the mid 80's. With cape values also approaching 3k, should we get storms to fire down here, they won't take long before becoming severe with large hail once again being the main threat. Interesting to note that STP (sig tornado parameters) on latest 18z 3km NAM are a bit higher/concerning than most other guidance despite lower probs via SPC.

[txtwister78]

Tornado Watch likely to be issued by SPC for the DFW region soon.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1631393754190848010

[Gotwood]

Tornado Watch likely to be issued by SPC for the DFW region soon.

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1631393754190848010?s=20

Was starting to wonder when they would post watches.

[Texas Snowman]

Couple of storms with hail cores around Gainesville. Going to be a close call here in northern Grayson County…