Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

[conestogo_flood]

Oh jeez. Doesn't really say much about tornadoes, are they a no-show up in this region today?

[simplykristi]

The main threats here are wind and hail. I am right in the middle of the moderate risk for severe weather today. Un fortunately I have to work. But, will be home later to track the storms via the internet.

Kristi

[Gorky]

I think the only way they'd upgrade this to high, would be a 30% hatched tornado area... Hail threat alone cannot be given a high threat, and 60% hatched wind threat is required for a day 1 high threat, which seems less likely than upgrading the TOR chances. (current is 15% hatched tor chance and 30% unhatched wind)

[conestogo_flood]

There is only 2%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 25%, 45%, 60% for tornadoes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

TODAY


TOMORROW

How does Houston happen to get missed again? Hopefully they can extend a risk area southward today or westward tomorrow..but I doubt it.

[Weatherfreak14]

Pics not working for me. Well today is the day. We shall see storms firing in a couple of hours.

[conestogo_flood]

Latest mesoscale Discussion indicates upgrade to high risk for parts of the watch area....

When does this outlook come out?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is going to be a scary day in KC!

[Gorky]

The next upgrade will be at 13Z or in 1 hours time

As for the tornado percentages, this table shows 30%tornado chance as a possibility unless I'm wrong?

http://spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_Prob_Conv_ ... 60214.html

[6SpeedTA95]

Well looks like what I was thinking yesterday may pan out. They shifted things west about 35 or 40 miles and there's a chance they'll issue a "high" potential for at least part of the mdt box.

[cheezyWXguy]

but why cut the slight risk so much? Yesterday I was in a 30% hatched area and now I'm barely in the 5%. Can someone tell me why the would shrink it so much?

[NWIASpotter]

They will likely include a 30% tornado threat if they are upgrading to high risk... Along with the 45 hail and maybe they'll upgrade with wind to 45, or else that remain at 30%.

[Gorky]

Upgrade as expected

[snoopj]

Hey. Look. KC, in another High risk zone this year.

And I'm in Seattle. Going to keep GRLevel3 running while at work then.

--snoopj

[wx247]

but why cut the slight risk so much? Yesterday I was in a 30% hatched area and now I'm barely in the 5%. Can someone tell me why the would shrink it so much?

They have refined the threat area. In the day 2 and 3 outlooks, they have a broader area that they need to watch. In the day 1 outlook, that area is refined.

[SouthFloridawx]

It is never good when they say, "This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event."

[AirmaN]

Ooooooooooo...should be an interesting day...

[P.K.]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 061258
KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-062100-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006

...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

EASTERN KANSAS
FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN MISSOURI INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS

A DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW...A DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE HAS BEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS
ON STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY TODAY...
REACHING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH BY THIS EVENING.
THE STRONG FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN TWO MAIN AREAS.
ONE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 100-400 PM CDT. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...NAMELY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

A SECONDARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
100-300PM. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE DRYLINE...AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE STRONG JET STREAM ALOFT.
THESE STORMS WILL TEND TO REMAIN AS DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS AS
THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF
ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. BUT...THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
WEATHER SYSTEMS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..EVANS.. 04/06/2006

[CrazyC83]

I'm sure all the watches will be PDS's and will be coming soon...my predictions coming up shortly.

[CrazyC83]

Oops - double post - connection spotty today.