Texas Fall 2023

[Iceresistance]

https://media2.giphy.com/media/37Fsl1eFxbhtu/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b9521m65r3cciao4py2nx03xag492gmkmnefiffw1fa1&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111812/ec-fast_z500aNorm_us_11.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2023111812/ec-fast_T850a_us_11.png

Hate that it's long range but man oh man would that be nice.

The CMC is similar, except to an Ice Storm

[JDawg512]

Rain chances don't look that great for the Austin area through Thanksgiving weekend.

[JayDT]

Ohh wow I would love for the euro to be right

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That Euro setup looks similar to Feb 2021. The arctic just isnt cold enough. Im not sure how 'wrong' the surface temps are but that setup isnt far off from that epic storm. The Euro kicks the PV out towards the end of the run, but it didnt happen in '21, since the raised heights on the west coast and the east coast joined over the top, which cut off the PV.

Jumping ahead some from one run, but something i remember well from '21. Back then the models wanted to scoot the PV along to the east early as well, but that didnt happen

[tajmahal]

That Euro setup looks similar to Feb 2021. The arctic just isnt cold enough. Im not sure how 'wrong' the surface temps are but that setup isnt far off from that epic storm. The Euro kicks the PV out towards the end of the run, but it didnt happen in '21, since the raised heights on the west coast and the east coast joined over the top, which cut off the PV.

Jumping ahead some from one run, but something i remember well from '21. Back then the models wanted to scoot the PV along to the east early as well, but that didnt happen

You mean the tropospheric polar vortex, right?

ICON and CMC nailed the February 2021 storm. One of the major differences this year is that there has been no sudden stratospheric warming.

[bubba hotep]

For tomorrow, the Euro continues to be much more aggressive for rain potential across North Texas when compared to the American models. I would be somewhat hopeful, but it seems like the Euro has been really bad with qpf here lately, even at short lead times.

[Brent]

I'm still not sure about frozen precip here but it's amazing to me how the apps automatically got colder the second the GFS flipped back to cold. I'm sure that's just a coincidence

In the short run yeah I'm hoping for a good rain tomorrow and Monday. We need it

[tajmahal]

The EPS ensemble mean forecast temperatures for November 30:
47–28...Amarillo
57–42...Austin Camp Mabry
54–38...Dallas
37–13...Denver
48–31...Oklahoma City
49–31...Tulsa
B21–B21...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

The GEPS ensemble mean forecast temperatures for November 30:
42–28...Amarillo
52–40...Austin Camp Mabry
49–37...Dallas
34–15...Denver
45–31...Oklahoma City
45–29...Tulsa
B26–B28...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

[JayDT]

I'm still not sure about frozen precip here but it's amazing to me how the apps automatically got colder the second the GFS flipped back to cold. I'm sure that's just a coincidence

In the short run yeah I'm hoping for a good rain tomorrow and Monday. We need it

Lol yup I noticed that too. Huge coincidence

[rwfromkansas]

Getting some rain, though spotty.

[Stratton23]

Dont like seeing the SE ridge poking its head a bit more on the models, Models show the cold air having a hard time draining south due to increased resistance from the SE ridge, especially on the euro

[Ntxw]

Dont like seeing the SE ridge poking its head a bit more on the models, Models show the cold air having a hard time draining south due to increased resistance from the SE ridge, especially on the euro

Surface high is slipping down the front range. I think SW flow aloft is what's giving guidance some trouble. We know this usually does when the upper flow and surface flow conflict. I would like to see the surface high to trend stronger maybe in the mid 1040s range.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZSxc5K ... ZdhHr/view

Fantastic write up by a new follow for me on Twitter. Gives a great break down for his prediction this winter.

[CaptinCrunch]

The rain across Tarrant Co wasn't impressive, only got light to simi moderate showers, very spotty for sure. Dallas Co and to the NE got the best rain showers.

Still think models are a little to quick to warm into Thanksgiving but we shall see. Definitely looking towards the end on the month into the first 10 days of December for a significant cold front and maybe some light winter wx.

[tajmahal]

The EPS ensemble mean (European) forecast temperatures for November 26:
40–28...Amarillo
56–47...Austin Camp Mabry
53–43...Dallas
31–13...Denver
44–37...Oklahoma City
45–38...Tulsa
B18–B34...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

The GEPS ensemble mean (Canadian) forecast temperatures for November 26:
39–18...Amarillo
47–35...Austin Camp Mabry
47–29...Dallas
28–10...Denver
43–23...Oklahoma City
42–22...Tulsa
B23–B26...Verkhoyansk, Siberia, Russia

[Itryatgolf]

When the cmc is the only model that looks good, you know you are in trouble lol. It overhypes cold and precipitation but not as bad as years ago I will admit. Hopefully we will have a few opportunities this winter at winter events here.

[Stratton23]

The CMC has done much better recently with cold airmasses compared to the euro and GFS, the CMC was the first model to sniff out the february 2021 outbreak which both the euro and GFS did a poor job with, the euro has a similar setup to the CMC, just warmer, long ways to go, bowling ball baja upper low and arctic air coming down will wreck havoc on models, i do expect the airmass to come in faster and colder than globals, I also would completely disregard the GFS, its is completely failing miserably at pattern recognition right now, I would take a blend of the CMC and Euro solutions right now to make a forecast

[Ntxw]

When the cmc is the only model that looks good, you know you are in trouble lol. It overhypes cold and precipitation but not as bad as years ago I will admit. Hopefully we will have a few opportunities this winter at winter events here.

I feel like with the strength of the Nino, extreme cold isn't what we will see. What we will be eyeing for is strong ULL/vorticity to tap the fringes of cold. Bitter arctic cold isn't a staple of El Ninos the stronger they get.

[Itryatgolf]

When the cmc is the only model that looks good, you know you are in trouble lol. It overhypes cold and precipitation but not as bad as years ago I will admit. Hopefully we will have a few opportunities this winter at winter events here.

I feel like with the strength of the Nino, extreme cold isn't what we will see. What we will be eyeing for is strong ULL/vorticity to tap the fringes of cold. Bitter arctic cold isn't a staple of El Ninos the stronger they get.

We just want enough cold air to work with any available precipitation to create winter storms. If the epo/wpo are negative, we should get a decent shot at cold here imo

[tajmahal]

The CMC has done much better recently with cold airmasses compared to the euro and GFS, the CMC was the first model to sniff out the february 2021 outbreak which both the euro and GFS did a poor job with, the euro has a similar setup to the CMC, just warmer, long ways to go, bowling ball baja upper low and arctic air coming down will wreck havoc on models, i do expect the airmass to come in faster and colder than globals, I also would completely disregard the GFS, its is completely failing miserably at pattern recognition right now, I would take a blend of the CMC and Euro solutions right now to make a forecast

ICON and GEM were the first models to forecast the February 2021 outbreak.

When will this Arctic airmass arrive and where?