Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The diurnal heating will form afternoon showers in the interior of PR in the next couple of days. We will be watching what unfolds by the end of the week with a trough that may bring deep moisture. Fingers crossed on that.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST MON APR 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAKDOWN TUE AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GENERATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
TUESDAY AND GENERATE A MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GET CLOSER TO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS MORE ORGANIZED AND WITH A HIGHER POTENTIAL TO INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 15/16Z BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PR THROUGH ABOUT 15/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E TO ESE AT
10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO FL050.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SEAS
WITH WAVES FROM 5 TO 6 FEET. LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 25 KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS SWELL
EVENT WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AT 4 FEET AND 16 SECONDS AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 74 / 10 20 20 40
STT 86 76 86 76 / 10 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 15 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Windy with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[tropicana]

UPDATE Mon Apr 15/13 1030amET A small area of heavy showers has been moving across Barbados this morning along with strong and gusty winds. In fact, the Grantley Adams Int Airport recently reported a sustained wind to 30mph from the SSE. Radar imagery indicate that the heaviest rains are moving away from the island now, but the most intense rain has fallen in the eastern parish of St Philip..where some reliable reports of 44mm of rain at Mount Pleasant near Pollards, and up to 58 mm of rain at Six Roads. Unfortunately, especially for the other islands, this rainfall is not at all widespread.

UPDATE Mon Apr 15/13 230pmET Piarco Int Airport Trinidad reported a high temp. this afternoon of 34.4C thats 94F... and that is the hottest temperature of the year thus far at this location...and since last Oct 30/2012 when it reached 34.7C . QUOTE FROM APR 7 POST: The sun will be directly over the latitude of Trinidad around April 18, and over Barbados and St Lucia about a week later on April 24. This means scorchingly hot days with increasingly humid days in the weeks soon after these dates as air masses change a bit by then.

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST MON APR 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
HISPANIOLA MOVING WEST TOWARD THE AREA WILL ERODE AHEAD OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SET TO PASS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO
USHER IN A 70 KNOT JET THAT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE ON FRIDAY IS SHORT-LIVED
AS ANOTHER SHARPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO DIG OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK.
THIS WILL REMAIN UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE FORMS STRONGLY OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGHING FROM A
STRONG CUT-OFF LOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DIPPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS SOON TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH EAST OF NEW YORK
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AND BE REPLACED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER HIGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SUCCESSION OF
HIGHS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
CENTRAL PORTION OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST ONE
GAGE REPORTING MORE THAN ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCHES AT ANASCO.
SOME SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM FROM EL YUNQUE AND EXTENDED
ACROSS TRUJILLO ALTO...CATANO...TOA ALTA AND INTERVENING
MUNICIPALITIES. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT ANOTHER BAND
OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED BY THIS MOISTURE AND THE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING JET AT UPPER LEVELS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUT
SOMEWHAT ABATED UNTIL SATURDAY AND THEN A GENERAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ALSO AIDED AT UPPER LEVELS BY THE BUILDING
RIDGE. MOISTURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA TIL 15/22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. GENERAL IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR AFT 16/02Z...BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL RETURN BEFORE
16/08Z IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND THEN THERE WILL
BE A GENERAL RISE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT.
MODELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT HIGH BUT WE WILL STILL CONTINUE
WITH 7 FOOT SEAS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...IN THE ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 86 / 20 20 40 40
STT 76 85 75 85 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Two troughs will bring scattered showers during the week for PR and adjacent islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE APR 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
WEST TODAY...GIVING WAY TO A MID TO UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES NORTH OF THE REGION.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY AS
TWO MID-UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GOOD
VENTILATION ALOFT AND THE INFLOW OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...
WITH UPPER DYNAMICS TO BECOME NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE DURING THE
WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT ACROSS WESTERN PR WHERE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BRING HIGHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL...EXPECT
MAINLY SHALLOW CONVECTION AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER...SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ARE FORECAST AFTER
16/16Z POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJMZ AND THE VICINITY OF TJPS
AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAS DIMINISHED BELOW 18 KT AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY
3-5 FT. THIS CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A SMALL TO
MODERATE NE SWELL WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 86 74 / 30 30 30 20
STT 86 74 86 76 / 20 50 40 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 16 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Windy with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[msbee]

I don't know where all this convection came from but Martinique is under yellow alert for strong storms

[cycloneye]

Barbara. That area of showers will arrive in PR tomorrow.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST TUE APR 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A VERY
WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS BY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH
PASSING ON SATURDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A 55 KNOT NORTHWEST JET WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. VERY DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND LAST FOR TWO TO THREE DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A BROAD SWATH
OF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF MOISTURE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW
BANDS OF DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A
GENERAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY HEAVY RAIN FELL OVER PARTS OF TRUJILLO ALTO AND
CAROLINA AND FROM OROCOVIS THROUGH AGUADA AND FROM YAUCO TO
HORMIGUEROS AS STRONG HEATING PRODUCED CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON. TOPS WERE SEEN AS HIGH AS 41 KFT. A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OFF THE
NORTHWEST TIP OF VIEQUES ALSO. OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE RAIN IS OVER
LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR FROM THE ANTILLES IS SHOWING
PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLOWLY AS THIS MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTHWEST. THE BAND EAST OF THE ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA AND SOME LOCAL FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP RAIN AMOUNTS IN LOCAL
AREAS FROM REACHING THE LEVELS ATTAINED TODAY. SHOWERS OVER PUERTO
RICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DRIER PERIOD INDICATED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR WAS INDICATED MONDAY...THEN MOISTURE RETURNS TUESDAY AND
EXCEEDS LEVELS FOUND THIS WEEK BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PASSAGES
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE JET DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENTERS INTO THE PICTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT TJMZ. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN OR AROUND TJMZ/TJPS AND TJSJ
THROUGH ABOUT 16/23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS SWELL FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AND WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS DO NOT DIMINISH MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXPECT TO EXERCISE CAUTION MOST AREAS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC BEGINNING THURSDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...VERY HEAVY RAINS...LIKELY OVER 4 INCHES AT A FEW
POINTS IN TRUJILLO ALTO AND CAROLINA...FELL DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT STREAMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE SO FAR. SOME URBAN
FLOODING NEAR TRUJILLO ALTO WAS REPORTED. ANOTHER SPOTTER IN SAN
SEBASTIAN REPORTED OVER 1.4 INCHES IN ONE HALF HOUR THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 85 / 40 60 60 40
STT 75 85 75 86 / 50 50 40 40

[msbee]

Luis, I hope some of that rain falls on St Maarten as it makes it way to you.

[Gustywind]

I don't know where all this convection came from but Martinique is under yellow alert for strong storms

Yeah Barbara , Guadeloupe too is under yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers that may cause flash flooding will be the rule today as a trough moves nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 AM AST WED APR 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS BY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH
PASSING ON SATURDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A 55 KNOT NORTHWEST JET WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT WERE AFFECTING THE ISLANDS
HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVE OVER WATERS. AT THIS MOMENT THE DOPPLER
RADAR IS SHOWING TWO AREA OF SHOWERS...THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE OTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...BETWEEN THE ISLAND OF ST
CROIX AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS COULD
MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING FROM THE EAST IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS
A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SIMILAR AREAS
TO YESTERDAY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE PROXIMITY OF A BROAD MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ...WILL HELP ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE
STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY MODERATE DOWNPOURS AS
THE SHOWERS PASS BY.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY BUT THE LAST MODELS RUNS ARE SUGGESTING LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT NOT AS WIDES SPREAD AS EXPECTED ON EARLIER
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL
AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AFTER 17/16Z WITH NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ AS WELL AS THE VICINITY OF TJSJ...TJPS AND
TJBQ. THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS...PEAKING ON SATURDAY. THIS WIND INCREASE WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE WINDS WAVES FROM THE EAST. A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO REACH OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURE WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXPECT TO
EXERCISE CAUTION MOST AREAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE ATLANTIC BEGINNING THURSDAY.


&&

.CLIMATE... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.12 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT CYRIL E. KING
AIRPORT/USVI YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.65 SET IN
1981.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 75 / 60 60 40 40
STT 85 75 86 75 / 50 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 17 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Windy with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

Bring the rain as we need it to aliviate the drought that has been in PR and other islands of the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST WED APR 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC FLOW AND A JET WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME
WEST SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 75 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
PASS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER JET FROM THE NORTHWEST PASSING OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE INDUCING DRYING AT LOWER LEVELS.
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE EAST OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND REACH
PEAK INTENSITY ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE TROUGH
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
THEN SPREAD INTO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EASTERLY WINDS WINDS GAIN A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE BANDED
YIELDING DISTINCT BANDS OF NO RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY.
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATED BAND OF
INTENSE SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND A FEW STREAMERS MOVED OVER
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL. RAIN GAGES SO FAR HAVE
SHOWN THE HIGHEST AMOUNT FALLING IN RIO GRANDE DE ANASCO...WHILE
RADAR SHOWED THE HIGHEST AMOUNT FALLING IN CENTRAL GUAYNABO WHERE
NO RAIN GAGES COULD CONFIRM. AS OF 3 PM AST...THE NORTH COAST FROM
VEGA BAJA TO AGUADILLA WAS DRY AS WAS THE CORRIDOR FROM ARECIBO
THROUGH MOROVIS TO SALINAS. EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE LAYER UP TO 700 MB AND WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR OF FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WET WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE
GFS AND THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN BOTH REASONABLE AND PERSISTENT. ON
MONDAY MID LAYERS DRY ABRUPTLY AND MOISTURE IN THE FLOW OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BE LIMITED. THIS WILL LIMIT SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA TO JUST A FEW LOCALES IN SOUTHWEST INTERIOR PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
UNTIL 18/00Z FOR THE AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS. PASSING SHRA
WILL AFFECT TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...GUSTY NEAR
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL OF 16 SECONDS HAS REACHED 7 FEET AT BUOY 43044 TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WILL TAKE ABOUT 14 HOURS TO
REACH BUOY 41043. NEVERTHELESS EARLY SWELL OF 5 FEET ARE NOW
REACHING BUOY 41043 AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN TO GO UP TONIGHT
STARTING IN ZONE 710 AND BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ALL OF THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AREAS OF 7
FOOT SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 85 / 60 60 50 50
STT 75 85 75 82 / 60 60 40 40

[tropicana]

MARTINIQUE TUESDAY DELUGE

[/b]UPDATE Tue Apr 16/13 230pmET An upper to mid-level trough system seems to be the culprit of an area of cloudiness over the Central Lesser Antilles today..the same system responsible for the showers in Barbados on Monday. LeLamentin at Fort-de-France in Martinique is reporting a thunderstorm in this last hour as well. Rainfall totals in the last 18 hours ending at 2pmET Tuesday: Arnos Vale St Vincent 11mm, LeLamentin Martinique 4mm, Canefield Airport Dominica 9mm, but the heaviest total today was at Melville Hall Airport Dominica with 24mm (near 1 inch). The Piarco Int Airport in Trinidad has picked up close to 3mm of rain in a sharp brief shower at mid afternoon...but that was no indicative of the mainly sunny, windy conditions across much of the rest of the island...the day's high still reached 34.2C 94F at Trinidad, a notch under Monday's high.

UPDATE Apr 16/13 815pmET The thunderstorm over Martinique lasted for several hours , ending after 4pm..and produced enormous volumes of rain in a short period of time, 58 mm of rain fell in less than 3 hours ending near 5pm... a grand total of 62mm of rain for the day at LeLamentin. At St Thomas in the Virgin Islands at least 31mm of rain has fallen .



DOMINICA DELUGE WEDNESDAY

UPDATE Wed Apr 17/13 815pmET Isolated rain showers overnight lingered in some of the islands of the Central WIndward Islands, Hewannora Airport in St Lucia picked up approx 6mm of rain last night. LeRaizet Guadeloupe saw 11mm. San Juan PR picked up 5mm of rain overnight. This afternoon, 1mm of rain fell at LeLamentin Martinique after the deluge of Tuesday.... and 7mm at VC Bird, Antigua. While the other islands continued to endure hot and sunny weather conditions for the most part... one big exception... the Melville Hall Airport in the northeastern part of Dominica, near the town of Marigot, has reported an incredible 159mm ( over 6 inches of rain) with incessant rainfall since last night, and still raining there tonight! The max temp at this airport was 27.2C 81F today. Quite an amazing amount of rain, considering the island's other airport, Canefield Airport in the SW part of the island has seen just a trace of rain through this period.

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands as the trough lingers nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU APR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AND INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PUERTO RICO. MODELS
PREDICT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/LOW TO SKIRT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR ALOFT AND A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND
THE INFLOW OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS PRODUCING
A CUT-OFF LOW JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LINGERING TROUGHINESS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
NEAR THE SURFACE...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER WINDY DAY TODAY AT NORTH COAST PR AND USVI
TERMINALS WITH ENE WINDS NEAR 20G30KT. ATMS VERY UNSTABLE AND EXPECT
SCT-NMRS TSTMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING JSJ...JMZ AND ISX.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING EASTERLY TRADES WILL CREATE
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM MODERATE/FRESH
TO FRESH/LOCALLY STRONG FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 88 74 / 30 20 20 50
STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 18 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Windy with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 PM AST THU APR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH A 75 KNOT JET NOW OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL TURN SOMEWHAT
WEST SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE JET MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG TROUGH SOUTH OF A CUT-OFF LOW MOVES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY. A WEAKER JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS ON
MONDAY. A BROAD TROUGH AND WESTERLY JET RETURNS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA DOES NOT
MOVE OUT UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT EXCEPT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...AREAS OF MOISTURE INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY IN 15 TO 25 KNOT EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT DO NOT END AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE TURNING SOMEWHAT WETTER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF 40 NORTH DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC WITH
LITTLE INTERRUPTION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STREAMERS OFF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BROUGHT QUICK
PASSING SHOWERS TO SOME OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL FROM PENUELAS
WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAD
MOVED INTO THE MONA CHANNEL BY 3 PM AST. FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY IN EASTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE SHOWERS.
ENHANCEMENT FROM UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS SPOTTY. SOME IS TO
OCCUR TONIGHT BUT THE BEST DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES SATURDAY MORNING. HENCE SHOWERS
ARE FAVORED MORE FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH COOL TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB...BETWEEN MINUS 9 AND MINUS
10 DEGREES CELSIUS...ARE EXPECTED...STABILITY INDICES REMAIN
MODERATE AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HEAVY RAIN. ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARE SHOWING
MOSTLY CONVERGENT FLOW THEN. MOISTURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO LEVELS FORECAST THIS SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME
FLOODING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SATURDAY...BE VERY LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM INUNDATIONS AND MOST AMOUNTS RECEIVED WILL BE
MODERATE AREA-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH ISOLD-SCT PASSING SHRA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL AROUND 18/21Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND
15-20KTS GUSTING UP TO 25-30KTS FROM THE ENE UNTIL
18/22Z...DECREASING TO AROUND 10KTS THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT
AS SHOWERS INCREASE AND WIND APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
THESE WINDS AND SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CREATE 7 FOOT SEAS
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THAT WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 83 / 20 30 50 50
STT 75 86 76 86 / 20 20 40 50

[Macrocane]

It has been very hoooot in Central America both the highs and the lows have been very warm.

The temperatures on April 16, 2013, it was the hottest day in YEARS for some locations in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 27.0°C (80.6°F) Warmest since September 11, 2012
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 27.0°C (80.6°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 15, 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.5°C (58.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.4°C (75.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 21°C (70°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 26, 2010
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 19.6°C (67.3°F) Warmest since July 27, 2012
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.2°C (43.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.4°C (75.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.0°C (62.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 42.0°C (107.6°F) HOTTEST SINCE APRIL 25, 2010
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.0°C (91.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 25.0°C (77.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.2°C (100.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 35°C (95°F) HOTTEST SINCE MARCH 12, 2010
La Esperanza, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 38°C (100°F) HOTTEST SINCE MAY 15, 1998
Jinotega, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.1°C (84.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 37.8°C (100.0°F) HOTTEST SINCE APRIL 16, 2010
Panama city, Panama 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 26.1°C (79.0°F)

The temperatures in April 17, 2013

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 26.7°C (80.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 19.0°C (66.2°F) Warmest since June 8, 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.0°C (46.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25.8°C (78.4°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.5°C (56.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.4°C (75.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.1°C (41.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.6°C (76.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 18.9°C (66.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.7°C (80.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100.4°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.7°C (99.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 40°C (104°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 37°C (99°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.1°C (84.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.7°C (98.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.1°C (93.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.8°C (76.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands as a trough moves nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST FRI APR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N AND 70W WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF PR BY SAT THEN MOVE EAST OF
60W BY SUN AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO GET ABSORBED BY A
LARGER CUTOFF LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA
SHOWS ECMWF HAS BEST HANDLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW NNW OF THE REGION.
INFLOW OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER LOW AND
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN SCT-NMRS TSTMS
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY SAT WHEN MOISTURE LOOKS THE BEST AND
ATMOSPHERE IS MOST UNSTABLE DUE TO MID LEVEL COOL POOL OVERHEAD.
H5 TEMPS ARE FCST NEAR -10C SAT WHICH IS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ACCORDING TO A 1982-2012
H5 TEMP CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE VERY
STEEP NEAR 6.5C AND MODELS SHOW LARGE CAPE VALUES ABOVE THE -20C
HEIGHT LEVEL. THUS...EXPECT TSTMS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SOME HAIL POSSIBLY SEVERE ESPECIALLY SAT DUE TO PRESENCE OF VERY
DRY ALOFT AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS. STEERING WINDS LOOK TOO STRONG FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER ONE SAME LOCATION FOR ANY PROLONGED
PERIOD OF TIME FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

SUN...UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF 60W WITH AREA BECOMING UNDER UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEADING TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. IN
FACT...PWAT VALUES ARE FCST TO DROP TO 0.75 INCHES OR TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL THEN ESTABLISH OVR THE AREA MON-TUE WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS.

NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA IS WED-THU WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD
JET DYNAMICS FORECAST BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. PERHAPS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY
COOL. OVERALL...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER AN
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET AND MID-UPPER TROUGH AROUND



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME IN AND AROUND ISX/IST...
NCM/KPK AND TJSJ TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT
15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT IN MIXED NE SWELLS AND
WIND WAVES. SCT-NMRS TSTMS ALSO EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CARIB SEA.
MARINERS SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 30 40 40 60
STT 85 76 85 75 / 20 20 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST FRI APR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY THEN MOVE MORE TOWARDS THE
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...JUST LIKE T HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI TODAY...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. TOMORROW LOOKS
LIKE A SIMILAR DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT WE HAVE THE UPPER LOW
MOVING SOUTH AND CLOSER TO OUR AREA AND THE TEMPERATURE AT 500MB
IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW AS WELL...WITH THE HEAVIER AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT WEAKER...SURFACE WINDS FROM THE ENE ARE EXPECTED TO GET
UP TO THE 20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND WINDS ALOFT FROM THE
WEST TO WSW REACHING 70 KNOTS. AT THE TIME...LATEST GFS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE USVI AND THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MODEL ALSO SEEMS TO BE LEANING
MORE TOWARDS A WEAKER DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN PR BUT WITH
ENOUGH VENTILATION TO KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PR...BEFORE CONVERGENCE ALOFT APPROACHES
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF PASSING SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN WITH DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STARTING ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
THIS WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK DYNAMICS ARE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT MOISTURE IS A BIT LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1 INCH OR SO.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN
SHRA...MAINLY AT TJPS AND TKPK. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONT THRU
20/22Z. WINDS EAST NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 KT UP TO 7 KFT...THEN BECMG
NORTHEAST LESS THAN 15 KT UP TO 22 KFT. MAX WINDS 96 KNOTS NEAR 35
KFT...ALL WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFT 19/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS RUNNING 8 TO 9 FEET WITH WINDS REACHING SCA LEVELS IN
GUSTS AT OUTER BUOY 41043. SEAS GOT UP TO 7 FEET EARLIER TODAY AND
THEN WENT BACK DOWN TO 6...HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED FOR THE SEAS TO
BE AT AROUND 7 FEET AT BUOY 41053 NEAR SAN JUAN WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
23 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS AT THE PONCE BUOY ARE AT AROUND 6
FEET...HOWEVER THE WINDS HAVE BEEN OVER 23 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 29 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 40 40 60 60
STT 76 85 75 83 / 20 30 40 40